Saturday September 5 2020 Forecast (7:49AM)

50 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

High pressure will be dominant, but its position and resultant air flow will be the determining factor in the details of our day to day weather. Initially, high pressure will have an elongated center across the Ohio Valley with eastward extension enough to give our area a generally westerly air flow to start the Labor Day Weekend, after which the initial high pressure area will slide to the east, turning our wind flow more southerly later in the weekend (including Monday). What I once thought would be a cold front swinging through sometime late Monday or early Tuesday will barely survive the trip into New England, only serving as a door opening to high pressure shifting its center to the Canadian Maritimes and east of New England by Tuesday and Wednesday, which will bring a more east to southeast air flow into the region, resulting in an increase in humidity, but not to oppressive levels. If there is any chance of rainfall, it will be Wednesday, in the form of showers, with the increased moisture in the region, but don’t expect any beneficial rainfall any time soon, and certainly not during the next 5 days.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 40s. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind W to SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW to S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy with patchy fog early, then sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 74-81, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

“Lazy” pattern sees slower changes. Predominant high pressure aloft near the East Coast means generally above normal temperatures. A humid southerly air flow starts the period with limited shower chances September 10-11. A cold front’s timing looks a lot slower than previously and it may never quite completely make it across the region during the September 12-13 weekend, but should bring a risk of showers and possible thunderstorms at some point during that weekend with a drier weather to follow.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Still looking at high pressure being dominant with generally below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures during mid month.

50 thoughts on “Saturday September 5 2020 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  1. I’ll probably just leave the DAYS 1-5 daily dew point forecasts in through about the last day of summer and then just mention it if super-relevant from there on, until next summer.

    1. Sounds reasonable. And again, I appreciate your efforts
      to include it. It added a really nice touch to the forecasts
      for each day. Personally, I love that feature.

      1. That’s why I said I’d mention it if it was relevant. We don’t get long stretches of high humidity very often in the fall. I think this particular autumn (beyond the equinox, not the first 3 weeks of meteorological fall) will feature somewhat more seasonable temperatures anyway.

  2. Thanks TK.

    A 3-day holiday weekend with 0% chance of rain. Barry would always quote on air “Murphy’s Law” but this weekend will certainly defy that principle for a change.

    Btw, I miss seeing Barry on air. I’m just not into this new generation of tv mets.

    I haven’t seen much of Harvey lately. I guess it’s just a matter of time for him as well, if it hasn’t happened behind the scenes already.

    1. Some are really good. You must like Eric. He is phenomenal.
      Have a look at Jacob Wykoff. I think you will like him.

            1. I believe you will really like Jacob. He’s young but has been quite a few places both forecasting and travelling. I recommend his FB page.

              I think being full time at WBZ will really launch him to a new level too. We had a nice chat at one of the weather conferences. Very pleasant and humble young man.

      2. Eric is one of the precious few good ones left. I am glad that Dave Epstein is on weekend mornings as well.

        1. I didn’t put Dave in my top 3 (see below) for presentation, but he’s very close to that. Top 5. There are just some broadcasters that make you want to listen to every word. I think my top 3 are all very deserving. 🙂

  5. From a personal standpoint, mutual love of weather aside, I find that the top 3 TV weathercasters that make me want to watch and listen to what they have to say, because of excellent on-air presentation, are Pete Bouchard, Eric Fisher, and Tim Kelley.

    T.K. is very good at focusing on a little extra educational content, much like I like to do on the blog & social media. I sometimes catch his noon news forecasts on my work break. All in all, Boston continues to be an excellent TV market for weather. 🙂

  6. For Mark (and any other hockey fans)… 3 of the final 4 are set. Vegas vs. Dallas, Tampa Bay vs., the winner of tonight’s game 7 between NY & Philly (go Islanders!).

    Somebody put up a fun poll on their FB page yesterday asking who would win game 7 between Dallas & Colorado last night. I was the only one that picked Dallas. 😉 … Also thought Vegas would take out Vancouver, which they did, but nearly a scoreless tie through regulation until Vegas got 3 goals in the last 5 minutes of the 3rd period to shut the door on Vancouver’s season (YAY!) … Not a ‘couver fan, at all.

  8. Since I made one non-weather comment about hockey, I have to add that for horse racing fans today is Kentucky Derby Day in this upside down and backward year. Tiz The Law going for the second jewel in the triple crown. A win today will put the horse in position to win the triple crown in the Preakness on October 3. I’m not a huge horse racing fan overall, but I’ve always paid attention to the triple crown races since it’s a fairly rare thing to see won.

    For music fans, Scottish singer/songwriter Al Stewart is 75 years old today. I’ve always been a fan of his music, and not just the iconic, Alan Parsons produced “Year Of The Cat” & “Time Passages” albums both with hit song title tracks, but all of the albums he’s made over the years. I wrote on his Facebook page that he’s one of only a handful of artists that can make you feel like you are right where the song is written about when you listen to it. 🙂

    Any Al Stewart fans here? Favorite song(s)?

  11. Denver Colorado’s projected high temperatures for the next 8 days, starting today…

    SAT: 100
    SUN: 98
    MON: 86
    TUE: 37
    WED: 47
    THU: 58
    FRI: 66
    SAT: 74

    Tuesday’s forecast includes snow in it, as part of a very early-season Rocky Mountain snow event. SAK mentioned some upcoming early snowfall out that way.

    Now we’ve often spoken that New England is not at the top of the list for huge weather changes, while being vulnerable for them still. Some of the greatest swings take place in locations like Denver, and the Black Hills of SD, to name just a couple. These changes can make New England’s look lame by comparison. We’ll get a vivid example of that with Tuesday’s high temperature being just a few degrees above freezing after their triple-digit heat today.

  12. A look back to one of the major weather events of 2019, through satellite time lapse. This is fascinating to watch and doesn’t even begin to drive home the fierceness of this hurricane, especially as far as those 2 Bahama islands are concerned. I remember forecasting that I did not expect this hurricane to make a full landfall on the US Mainland, and it did not, but yet it still had a significant impact on part of our coastline as well (Carolinas). I find this particular loop fascinating to watch when the storm entered ideal conditions for intensification, prior to reach the Bahamas, and its rather dramatic transition to post-tropical cold core system once it began to accelerate northeastward.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gapbNf_Q_FU

  13. With Kenosha WI in the news, just for the heck of it, I looked up their average snowfall. Somewhat shocking to say the least.

    Boston MA (Logan) = 43.8”
    Kenosha WI = 35.8”

    1. Not shocking at all. They are in a continental climate zone and are much drier than Boston, by nearly 12 inches (melted) per year. That location is often very dry during the 12 to 16 weeks that make up the heart of winter. The result is lower average annual snowfall than New England, which is much “wetter” during the winter.

      1. Interesting. When I think of those Mid-Western states, I automatically assume high amounts on average.
        I even looked up Milwaukee and their total is just a few inches higher than Boston’s (46.9”).

        Thanks TK. 🙂

        1. It would be natural to think that. But then you have to take a step forward and look at their annual precipitation. There are some very interesting traits of climate based on location. For example, places like Denver and a lot of mountains western locations, as well as many sections of the Plains, receive a much higher percentage of their annual snowfall outside of actual winter than a place like New England. 🙂 … Some of the snowiest periods in the northern Rockies and Upper Plains occur in October & November and again in the spring, while winter is much drier. They still snow, but the percentages are spread out much more evenly over those months than a bigger winter spike, like you’d see in the Midwest & Northeast.

    1. Less opportunity for tropical activity, correct? If I understand correctly, Phases 1 & 8 we have to watch out.

      1. Those phases are somewhat negative for activity, but don’t “prevent” it. I do think we’ll have a new system in the Atlantic not long from now as we near and pass the climate peak of the season. I cautiously say that I believe that particular system will be a “fish storm” for the most part. But as always, complacency is not a wise practice, especially during hurricane season.

        P.S. .. there is another disturbance coming off Africa soon that may also eventually have a better shot to develop into something more organized. So we may end up with two systems by the time we reach September 9 or 10.

  15. Beautiful night to be sitting by the fire on our patio . I thought today was a top 10 day just marvelous.

    1. Agree with you, SSK. Beautiful day, warm in the sun, really blue skies, neighbors have a fire pit going so it smells like camping… very nice night.

      1. We all ate Out socially distanced and it was fun. . I thought of you today oceanair when I opened all windows and doors. I suspect yours were open

      2. We have a flame genie set into our fire pit. It is the cats meow…until you run out of gel for the started. Oh dear

    1. Unlike the last time they made it 1993, I think they have a legit chance this year to advance though TB is going to be a tough match.

  19. TK commented on this earlier but the hourly forecast for Denver on Monday has the temp dropping 61 degrees in just 16 hours!

    From near 100 tomorrow to 33 with snow Monday night. Yes not unprecedented for the front range of the Rockies but still incredible.

    1. Denver often makes me think of the old NE comment….if you don’t like the weather, wait a minute. Or something like that. Perhaps, more so in fall. My BIL was in Denver last fall and I recall pretty much the same thing

  20. According to the evening tv mets, a wet regime from Thursday into all of next weekend, both days. Dewpoints 70+ during that timeframe.

    In fact, the met on Ch. 7 said “washout” for Friday. Her EXACT words.

    Does this put a good dent into our drought?

    1. Probably not because that’s not what I see happening.
      In fact, after an overnight threat of showers, it will probably be dry.

    2. If that is J.L. on ch 7, next time you see her, count how many times she says the phrase “We’re tracking” during one weathercast. The average is about 9 or 10. If you notice, there are people who tend to default to certain phrases when speaking. You can even see this in every day conversation. I probably have a couple myself. 😀

      1. We are tracking to me means possible. I suspect with washout there was a potential type word. And Yes we all have phrases.. You have a number of them. I know I do.

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