Sunday September 6 2020 Forecast (7:51AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Overall, we will remain under the influence of high pressure more than anything else during the next 5 days, but one slight adjustment to today’s forecast is a bit more cloudiness, especially this morning, as an upper level disturbance crosses the region. This may hold temperatures down a few degrees over the previous forecast, but not significantly. We’re also looking at very nice weather for the Labor Day holiday itself on Monday, as well as Tuesday, although on Tuesday, those sensitive to higher humidity will notice that it has come up somewhat. That humidity rise will continue into the middle of the coming week when the shower threat will go up somewhat. However, I’m not looking for any widespread heavy rainfall at this time. The greatest chance for a brief heavier bout of rainfall could come on Thursday with the approach of a cold front.

TODAY: Lots of clouds morning, more sun afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy with patchy fog early, then sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 74-81, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a few showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

One cold front makes it through by early September 11 with a push of drier air for that day. High pressure should be in control of the weather to start the September 12-13 weekend but may give way to another increase in moisture and a frontal system with a risk of showers to end the weekend. Early the following week, high pressure should bring dry weather September 14 before the next disturbance arrives with clouds and a chance of showers September 15.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Transition to a faster-flowing zonal pattern is possible during this period, which would mean a few air mass changes, but overall below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures. We’ll still have to eye any potential tropical activity off the East Coast.

47 thoughts on “Sunday September 6 2020 Forecast (7:51AM)”

  4. Thank, TK…
    Hope everyone is well and happy.

    Last week’s discussion of the Summer of 1983 brings me back to my first day of teaching on September 7, 1983. It was so hot in my classroom and me in my geeky suit. It was certainly a memorable debut to my career.

    I am amazed at the Denver forecast for the beginning of this week. I was in Boulder two years ago for a football game between Colorado University and New Hampshire. It was 94 at the stadium, but the dewpoint was 38. I had never experienced “desert heat” before and had never been in the Rocky Mountains. It was hot in the stadium!!!!

    In fact, speaking of unique weather, it snowed on CU’s graduation day in Boulder on May 9, 2019!!!! (and it wasn’t even 2020!!!)

    Here’s a clip:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pl9vMTeQGWM

    Snow-mencement!

    Finally, now that she has dissipated, can we sing. “Nana, Hey Hey, Goodbye!”? (I’m sorry, but I have been waiting all year to say that!) 🙂

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsaTElBljOE

    Have a relaxing and fun Labor Day weekend!!!

    2. Hahahaha. Poor nana. Although we may get to the misspelled Vicki

      I smiled at your teaching story and geeky suit.

  7. Warning for model watchers: They are going to be performing very poorly for a while. All the signs are there. Time to kick the “anticipated model error” forecasting into high gear!

    1. Then I can only imagine what the upcoming winter is going to like forecasting…as if it’s not difficult enough during that season.

      1. It doesn’t mean it will get progressively worse, model-wise. They are always shifting around as patterns change. And the amount of tweaks made to models these days mean we have to constantly re-evaluate biases.

        There are certain patterns that make certain models struggle. They are not necessarily seasonal, other than patterns that appear in one season more than another. But it’s even more complex than that.

        I just recognize a couple things I have seen before that tend to make them all struggle. Here are 2 clues…
        1) One run to the next, almost all models significantly reduced the amount of rain coverage for late in the coming week.
        2) A major typhoon about to enter the jet stream as an extratropical system. This is notorious for causing “things not previously seen” by the various guidance and the adjustments can be anywhere from hardly noticeable to quite significant.

  9. JPD have you watched Lucifer in Netflix? I had to try a few times but my youngest keep encouraging me. It’s quite good with a story but funny parts too

    1. No. I was turned off just by the title. I saw a clip and was not interested. Perhaps I’ll take another look at it.

      We are now watching GREENLEAF on Netflix.
      Pretty interesting series (5 seasons) produced by Oprah Winfrey.

      1. I had exact same reaction, JPD. and I did start a couple of times. I’m relegated to the couch with foot elevated today so gave it one more try and am really happy I did.

        I will check green leaf next. Thanks

  10. Seems very humid here in pembroke to the fact my wife closed the windows & put the air on . Hoping it cools a tad for another fire tonight

    1. I wonder if it is because the air is quiet. I turned fans on. I’m at 78 with 57 dp. Wunder has you a few degrees cooler with same DP. But it did have a more humid feel in house which surprised me.

      That said….does anyone know where theJames Adams farm was on north river in marshfield. There was also a Vassall farm Next to it

        1. Thanks. We did find some in that area. We were wondering about Rhot Marina area Too but think your answer was a good guess

          1. I know exactly where that is crossing over from marshfield to scituate or vice versus. Heard good fried clams down in that marina restaurant there Rhot

  12. Jpd.. It takes at least 10 min to get into it. Beginning was a bit NCIS gory which is why I stopped twice before daughter suggested I try again. Then I was hooked. I like detective shows like NCIS. It’s not as in depth as that but he plays the part well and she does also. Some good humor tossed in.

  13. SSK noted a bit more of a humid feel to the south of the city, and he’s exactly right. The dew point has crept up a bit there, over 60 in some locations.

    I found it interesting after all the talk of end-of-week “wash-outs” that today’s 12z ECMWF run has a whopping trace to 0.30 for rainfall across southeastern New England for the entire 240 hour run. DRY! Does that mean it’ll be correct? Not necessarily. But I have never bought the above normal precipitation forecasts from CPC nor have I agreed with the locals calling for a wetter stretch such as that. I have not changed that line of thinking today and would not have, regardless of what the 12z Euro said anyway.

    I think Friday will be a turn out to be a beautiful late summer day, and much of next weekend may follow suit, if my idea of the next week is correct. But again, pay attention to wayward model forecasts. They may lead people to have different graphics for the same day from one day to the next.

    1. I checked four major networks this am and again now and not one had more than perhaps a raindrop at around 20% on a couple of days. On Thursday and Friday it was a tad higher for a couple. It did rain at one of the Plymouth beaches today. If someone had a single raindrop a week ahead for today, I’d say that it earned its keep. These guys have to get the forecast out 7-10 days ahead.

      This is 7s Forecast this am. It has an interesting graphic on Colorado. And I do understand this is not unusual….just fun to see

      https://whdh.com/weather/

      1. I haven’t seen anyone today. I just know that this forecast is going to play havoc with what we see. I don’t remember what I had a week ago for today, but probably no rain in my forecast. 😉 I’ll have to look.

        I just know that I have Friday dry as of right now but there’s an implied chance of showers in the pre-dawn based on the forecast for Thursday night. That will depend on the frontal timing and moisture content. I’d say low confidence forecast right now given that the same guidance that now has it dry had it as a wet day for a few runs yesterday. Ah, the fun of forecasting…

        1. About a week ago I had today dry and I had Monday (Labor Day) with a chance of a shower or storm from an approaching cold front. That’s not going to happen. The front will be approaching, but there’s not enough moisture and even if there was the front never gets here. 😉

            1. Yes indeed. Basically what my inference and message was about the models being iffy. High bust potential on medium range forecasts. Some of them can be small and insignificant while others will be larger. A time for us all to be leery.

              I’m hoping the current drier trend is going to be correct because my son will be camping for 3 days in your general area.

  14. I know it’s not fall but my vision when I had my fire pit put in was afternoon fires in the fall .I put some mums on the patio this morning , very nice fire going & I am sparking up the grill soon . Loving it !!!!

  15. It may be technically September, but the sun feels more like a “July” sun. The heat from it still really cuts through. I can hardly wait for that weaker November/December intensity. Even the first half of January sun isn’t particularly strong.

      1. Nice. I’m holding out for evening also. Do you use wood fire? We have a fire pit but spent too much time with smoke so got a wood pellet insert and love. We use year round as we can control length of burn

        No mosquitoes in your area? I know EEE was bad there

        1. I had it sprayed when I was in Hampton for $60 . Last night & tonight was first fires in awhile & so far I’m not feeling them

    1. There was some good lift of air over that dew point / sea breeze boundary coming from the South Coast. A layer of rather dense clouds formed there when interacting with some energy (cold air aloft) coming from the west. It was fascinating to watch on visible satellite loop. We had our own deck of clouds to a lesser degree push in from the southeast here, but it just made for a spectacular sunset as it never made it to the sun’s position in the sky.

      1. Sure is awesome to see. My family was in Plymouth area today and they had a couple of quick rain events. Assume that was from what you mentioned. I could see on radar.

        1. Yes, there was just enough lift to pop a couple showers. Those were not even modeled by HRRR. Very localized.

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