Monday September 7 2020 Forecast (7:18AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-11)

If you look at the satellite & radar across the Northeast & Great Lakes first thing this morning you see a big batch of cloudiness to our west, approaching the region, with a significant batch of showers with those clouds. And has been the case with many approaching systems this summer, it will pretty much disappear before reaching us. This is the front that nearly a week ago I put in my extended forecast as having a shot at giving us a chance of a shower or thunderstorm to end the long weekend. And we were are, Labor Day, the “unofficially” final day of the summer season, which ironically was the longest summer season possible, when you go from Memorial Day as its beginning to Labor Day as its ending. And while this year has been anything by typical, I do hope that those of you with today off have a chance to get out and enjoy some wonderful weather we’ll have, courtesy high pressure, which as previously mentioned, will be our main weather controller, and this is not going to change for some time. In fact, it will feel even more like summer tomorrow into midweek as the high center shifts to a position that allows it to warm up with somewhat increased humidity. By later Thursday, a cold front will approach, and this may set off a shower or thunderstorm, but I expect this front to be lacking activity and many areas may remain rain-free during its passage. High pressure will build in Friday with a return to drier, pleasant weather.

TODAY – LABOR DAY: Early morning fog patches in low lying locations, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S up 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming over interior low lying locations (swamps, bogs, riverbeds). Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind near calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a few showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring late-day. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible through late evening. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 67-74. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

High pressure will be in control to start next weekend on September 12, and may hold its ground keeping the next approaching system from the west (and another to the south) at bay through September 13 as well. And while it’s still many days away, I’ll also go with the trend of those approaching systems being less impactful than recently shown on models, so that there is just a chance of some shower activity around the region on September 14. Another minor system may approach and pass through from west to east later in the period in a strengthening zonal pattern across the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Zonal flow pattern expected with low amplitude trough bringing a cooler interlude early in the period followed by low amplitude ridge bringing a warm-up as we get to the final few days of astronomical summer (autumnal equinox is September 22).

51 thoughts on “Monday September 7 2020 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. You recall how I (and others) have been saying that despite an “active” tropics, it hasn’t been a fierce season so far in general. And it hasn’t. We also expected to start seeing a bit more in the way of CV wave development as we approach the peak of the season. Well we are nearly at the peak and we are seeing a bit more in the way of action with potential development coming off Africa, but the overall conditions in the Atlantic still generally prevent these from turning into major hurricanes. Nevertheless, we will have to watch these systems in the days ahead, as we always should when they are out there!

    SAK makes mention of this increased activity in his blog, and also has some excellent info there on what’s going on in the Rockies, as well as a more local forecast which once again is very similar to mine. Check out his update!

    https://stormhq.blog/2020/09/07/weekly-outlook-september-7-13-2020/?fbclid=IwAR2g97dvm50p3Y-ehNI3hneDJmdddqB9AeHQsXfMkzoAcJNzlY4Q7b__9NI

    1. Thanks TK/SAK!

      I used to think that going from low 60s to 25.4” of snow in 1997 was impressive and could only happen in Boston. New England’s sudden variations don’t come remotely close to the Rockies. I am going to have to get out of the habit saying “only in New England”…

      Denver = 97F to 6”+ snow!?!?

      That is still BEYOND insane though.

  2. Thanks TK! Hope everyone’s enjoying the holiday weekend!

    Rain chances for the coming week plus have really fizzled on the guidance, as TK has alluded to, and that definitely makes sense with this pattern. Through 240 hours, the 0z ECMWF had less than a tenth of an inch of rain for some areas. Not sure it’ll be that extreme, but agree with TK that systems will generally continue to underperform. And the tropics don’t appear keen on providing any relief. We may be approaching the point where this goes from a fairly run of the mill drought to a bad drought.

  3. Thank you, TK, and SAK and WxWatcher! Appreciate all of it, the high pressure/dew point wrangles, Rockies to the tropics, drought issues, all excellent discussions.

  7. My brother lives in Denver. He laughed at me a few days ago when I relayed SAK’s advanced look at the Denver heat wave/snowstorm. He is obviously not a Weather Geek. I must admit that I have never seen anything like the impending dramatic change.
    The saving grace will be the roads should be quite warm…not so saving will be the leaves still on the trees

    1. I have a slight hope that the snow may underperform there, which may help with the tree situation.

      2. Having been out there a few times, along the I-25 corridor, which is where most of the people live (Cheyenn/Fort Collins/Denver/Colorado Springs), there aren’t a lot of trees until you head a bit more to the west and into the Foothills (places like Boulder and Golden). Once you get east of I-25 (where the airport is), it’s all flat Plains).

        Here are some pic from my trip to Denver and Colorado Springs in October of 2012: https://photos.app.goo.gl/iRTBaLq25REdafcM6 (If you’ve never been to Colorado Springs – Garden of the Gods is amazing – there are lots of pictures from that spot in this album)

        For comparison, I was out there in late December 2006 as well, and landed right as a blizzard was moving in. Here are pictures form that trip (which included a day trip up I-25 to Cheyenne on New Year’s Eve): https://photos.app.goo.gl/Z4EKMwy9kxEhGsRW7

        2. Enjoyed viewing all of these photos. Thank you.

          I have to be honest, I liked the Winter photos better. 🙂

  8. Good morning!
    Thanks as always, TK!

    Here’s the Denver NWS forecast:

    Labor Day Areas of smoke. Sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming west northwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

    Tonight Rain, mainly after 2am. Areas of smoke before 7pm. Areas of blowing dust between 8pm and 1am. Low around 33. Windy, with a north wind 8 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

    Tuesday Rain and snow, becoming all snow after noon. High near 35. Breezy, with a north wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
    Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 29. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
    Wednesday Snow likely before noon, then a chance of rain and snow between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of rain after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. North northeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

    From smoke to snow…

    1. Thanks CF! I had no idea that Denver is susceptible to smoke. I thought that was strictly an LA weather phenomenon.

      Based on that forecast, I doubt that the impact will be like it perhaps would be one month from now. It sounds like a “fun” to look at event more than anything. 🙂

      1. We can have smoke here. It may be far more frequent in the West, but it can occur anywhere. It’s very common in many parts of Canada.

  9. Thanks TK and WOW to the rainbow-lightning pic. Talk about capturing a moment!

    My wife and I just completed a 32 mile bike loop through Lexington-Bedford-Carlisle-concord-Lincoln. It was a beautiful morning for a ride and a nice end of summer bookend as we had done the same loop in the spring.

  10. SAK……we went to Garden of the Gods.
    Beautiful place.
    Like Boston, Denver’s baseball park is downtown. Wonderful city!

    1. A lot of baseball parks are downtown, unlike most football stadiums.

      Of the top of my head – baseball parks I’ve been to that are in the heart of cities:

      Fenway
      Yankee Stadium (old and new)
      Skydome
      Camden Yards
      Minute Maid Park
      Oakland Coliseum
      AT&T Park is not far from downtown SF, and on the waterfront
      Busch Stadium
      Tropicana Field is in downtown St. Petersburg (but quite a distance from Tampa)

      Obviously I took the Coors Field tour. I’ve also been by Wrigley Field and Comiskey in Chicago (both are in the middle of the city), as well as Target Field in Minneapolis, PNC Park Pittsburgh and Marlins Stadium in Miami. All are in or near the hear of the cities.

      Then you have parks like Shea Stadium/Citi Field, stuck in the middle of Queens near LaGuardia, Citizens Bank Park/Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, well away from the city, Stade Olympique in Montreal, which is technically in the city, but is a quite a bit from downtown (it’d be like putting Fenway in Quincy), and Kansas City, where the stadium is a long way from downtown.

      Yeah, I’ve been to a few ballparks.

      1. SAK….I totally forgot about the other “in city” ballparks.

        I have been to:
        Camden Yard
        YankeeStadium (never saw so many auto tire repair places in my life around the park)
        Arizona park (can’t recall the name)
        Kansas City (Arrowhead to see the Pats…Baseball stadium is beside it…and it really isn’t in K.C.)
        Houston to see the Pats (never been to Minutemaid….my daughter lives down there…I will have to speak to SIL and get to that one,,,make him pay!)
        Charlotte stadium for football.
        Seattle for baseball (amazing that they could build dome stadiums for both baseball and football downtown)

        SAK wins this contest lol!

        And my brother will send a picture once the snow starts falling heavily so that we can frustrate JPDave.

  11. Quick look at the operational 12z runs…
    DRY DRY DRY!

    Not going to verify CPC’s above normal precip forecast with this weather pattern.

    Not that I’m a fan of the Canadian model, and I’m sure it’s underdone, but it has basically under 0.25 inch for the entire southeastern New England region through 240 hours. The GFS & ECMWF are not all that much different. They all generally have ensemble support as well. Models today look a touch better than they did the last few days but I’d still be cautious with run-to-run operationals.

    The drought isn’t going anywhere except getting worse…

    2. Yep. Absent tropical intervention I’m increasingly skeptical about getting much lasting relief even into winter. The ENSO/PDO combo screams dominant eastern/southeastern ridge for months to come as we head into the cold season, though SNE can still sometimes do ok on precip in such a pattern in the winter. Maybe/hopefully other factors can override this but I don’t have a great feeling about it.

      1. That would mean 3 winters in a row of below to well below normal snowfall for Logan and SNE. Oh well.

        2018-19 = 27.4”
        2019-20 = 15.8”
        2020-21 = TBD

        1. Definitely not something that can be set in stone while it’s still summer. Warmer than average, probably a decent bet. But snow is little more than anyone’s guess, though I expect most winter forecasts (from the more reputable sources at least) will favor below average snow to go along with the above average temps. A ‘forecast of forecasts’ per se 😉

          1. Don’t doubt yourself WxW. I bet you are spot on (unfortunately).

            Record for Logan = 7 winters in a row (1948-1955).

            JPD probably remembers some of those latter years within that range. 😉

      2. Basically my thoughts as well, but if I had to venture a guess one way or another I’m leaning dry as the predominant pattern for a long time to come.

          1. It doesn’t settle anything. Any meteorologist will tell you that you cannot finalize a winter forecast in the summer.

  12. Thanks SAK for the great pictures. SAK your passion for baseball rivals that of weather I can see. I’ve been to a few ball parks in my travels as well, other than Fenway my personal favorite of course there is some bias there, I really liked Busch stadium in St. Louis with Big Mac land out in the left field third deck. I also liked Olympic stadium in Montreal where I was fortunate enough to see Moises Alou hit an inside the park HR at that game. Wrigley field is on my bucket list.

    1. Wrigley Field and Dodger Stadium are the two that I still want to see a game at.

      My favorite park that isn’t named Fenway has got to be AT&T park in San Francisco. I saw Ichiro hit the only inside-the-park-homer in All Star Game history there during the 2007 All Star Game. I was also there in 2018 for Metallica Night.

      I’ve been to Oakland Coliseum twice. It’s not a great park (probably in my bottom 5), but sentimentally it’s near the top. My uncle was a huge baseball fan (he brought me out to the Bay Area for the 2007 All-Star Game). We went out there in April 2018 for his memorial. While out there, the Red Sox were playing in Oakland, so naturally, we bought tickets. We got to witness Sean Manaea toss a no-hitter against the Red Sox. That’s the only no-hitter I’ve ever witnessed live.

      BTW, my passion for hockey is the one that rivals weather. Between pro and college hockey, I’ve seen games in nearly 75 different arenas.

      1. You’ve certainly witnessed some history on the diamond, and getting the chance to see hockey games at over 75 different venues is pretty darn impressive. I’m bummed about the way the season ended up for the b’s COVID really messed it up for them. They were on a tear as the #1 team in the league until the halt in play, totally broke their momentum.

      2. I don’t know your age, but, did you ever get to see the Clarkson Golden Knights play in the old Walker Arena in Potsdam, NY? It seemed like everyone was right on top of the ice!

  13. Not sure if anyone has noticed but there is a tremendous amount of pine cones on the trees this year. This I believe is brought on by our drought here. I think it’s referred to as a stress crop.

    1. We have a large pine That developers pinecones in an odd way and oddly i was sitting out tonight thinking there are more than normal.

  14. We have 4 named storms left until we start using the Greek alphabet we have Paulette and Rene right now. The next 4 storms are Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred. If they all occur prior to October 2nd, they will be the earliest of each of their respective letters. I think we could get to the Greek Alphabet by the 25 of September if not earlier which would be about a month earlier than the current earliest Alpha named storm which occurred October 22nd . I am kind of wondering how far in the tropics may get in terms of the Greek Alphabet

    2. Ahhhh hemmm. Because the powers that be misspelled Vicki, please going forward, may we spell it correctly. VICKI

      1. I think Vicky and Wilfred are going to be problem storms 😛 Vicki ( I will for now call it Vicki not Vicky 🙂 well because its misspelled and well my Grandpa would always like to stir up trouble and tease. So I think Wilfred is not necessarily gonna be some monster but its going to be the one that has the weirdest storm tracks we have seen 😛

  15. The discussion of ballparks has me smiling at wonderful memories of walking down that ramp at Fenway, the smell of history resonated even then for a grade schooler, and going to the window At the end of the fame to get tickets left for us. They were for box seats set high and I have no idea what they are called now. But with his remarkable eyesight, Ted always tipped his hat to us as he ran in from left field. After we would wait by a fenced area To meet Ted for dinner, but It was also an area where players Freely came out to sign autographs. Times have changed

    Then as manager of a visitIng team we had seats behind their dugout.

    It makes me smile to see so many recognize Fenways history here. My niece….a huge baseball fan from CA….has often said there is no thrill that matches walking into fenway park.

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