Tuesday September 8 2020 Forecast (7:39AM)

37 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Sounds like a broken record but high pressure controls more than anything else and the drier than average pattern goes on with no end in sight. Only a cold front will break the monotony as it switches our air mass from a warmer and more humid one to a drier one sometime between Thursday night and Friday morning, and other than the shower or thunderstorm that may accompany that frontal passage, you won’t find any other rain in this 5-day forecast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible through late evening. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 67-74. Dew point falling through 50s into 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog lowest elevations. Lows 40-45 interior lower elevations, 45-50 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes at the shoreline.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

High pressure should hold the next system off through most of September 13 with a shower chance coming late-day or nighttime. This system probably falls apart over the region September 14 and another one sweeps through the next day with a risk of a few showers, clearing the air out with a Canadian air mass arriving for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Zonal flow, low amplitude, with a reinforcing cooler shot possible to start this period followed by a return to warmer than average weather as we head toward the Autumnal Equinox. Dry pattern continues. Speculating that much of the region may be classified in severe drought by this time.

37 thoughts on “Tuesday September 8 2020 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  4. Thank you, TK.

    Question. I know Much of a downpour Runs off lawns, etc., but it seems reasonable that it still replenishes smaller bodies of water to some extent.

    I’m not thinking drought help, just some replenishment.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK and SAK for the nice write-ups.

    TK, We watched channel 10 last and therefore saw Pete’s
    broadcast. He was mentioning the “Possibility” of some
    tropical moisture up this way come Thursday, persumably
    from that system SAK mentioned.

    Any thoughts on that possibility? thanks

    2. Some of the models bring that rainfall into the South Coast, drawn northward by our cold front.

      Given the recent track record of the models, 1 of 2 things will happen:

      1. We’ll get a widespread soaking rainfall across all of Southern New England.
      2. We’ll get virtually nothing as it all stays off the South Coast.

      I’ll go with B.

      1. Or 2. 🙂
        Undoubtably that is what will happen. What do they say,
        when in drought, leave it out. Or something like that.

        1. I remember that Barry used to always say “Everything fails in a drought”.

          But what you said sounds familiar as well JPD.

  7. Laramie, WY was 82F yesterday at 5pm, our time.

    Today, at 9am our time, its 24F, with moderate snow and a visibility of 0.5 miles. NE wind at 28, gusting to 38 mph

    Fun times !

    1. Laramie is home to the University of Wyoming. It’s also at 7000 feet and tends to be a cold place.

      I have a friend that went to school there. I remember her calling me just before Thanksgiving one year complaining that it was “too cold”. ( She enjoyed cold and snow). Sure enough, Laramie was the nation’s cold spot that day with a low of -20.

      1. That must give the visiting football teams a decided disadvantage. I have been to Pike’s Peak twice. That would be about only 3,000 feet above Laramie.
        I suffered the effects of oxygen deprivation each time. Could barely walk, never mind play football.

        Update a couple of hours ago from my brother in Denver.
        32 degrees with light snow….not sticking to anything yet.

        1. Your messages are showing up with your real name, not this one (which I changed it to). Do you want to use Weatherbee2 or the name that is showing up on your posts? I have to approve each individual post unless you decide to keep that name as it is being sent. 🙂 Just let me know which one you want to use.

          1. Hi TK

            I have no idea why it showed up with my real name.
            I would like to keep weatherbee2 if possible.

  8. I’m noticing the dragonflies are much fewer in number. I wonder if that Is typical for this time of year. The hummers are still pretty active.

    1. We had a slow start to dragonflies up here in the NW ‘burbs. There are a lot more now, but still far fewer than last year at this time. Some of it is no doubt drought-related. Less moisture, less bugs, less food for dragonflies, fewer dragonflies. Theory anyway. 🙂

        2. I had a big one of those on my back door screen this afternoon. I just let it sit there and eventually it was gone.

      2. We had an early start and a bumper crop of dragonflies. We have a ton every year but this was the most. Interesting how different areas Not far apart see different things

        1. Agree. I have noticed a significant difference from that area to this area regarding several things, insects and vegetation included.

            1. There were quite a few wonderful dragonflies at the Cape over the weekend, but with red tails — which I’ve never seen before.

              1. Awesome. The only one I saw here today was a tiny one …also red. The ones we have had were like 747s this year but those seem to have moved on.

                I have to check back, but I seem to recall we had aerial spraying last year for mosquitoes and EEE and we noticed dragonflies disappeared afterwards. Maybe it was related to a cycle. They did come back again a few weeks later so we shall see

  12. Just talked to my brother in Denver.
    TK has done it again. He said yesterday that he had a feeling that the actual snowstorm might under perform.
    At 5:50 Denver time, there was no snow on the ground. He said that it was just starting to snow heavier after a day of mixed precip.

    TK….is it possible that the models did well with the cold intrusion and the fact that there would be precip, but were unable to factor in the angle of the sun which at this time of the year is still relatively high? Kinda like spring storms here,,,,we have to wait til the sun goes down before the snow gets going.

    1. They’d likely over-forecast accumulation based on “warm ground” and elevation factors. They forecast precipitation falling as snow but not the condition of the surfaces it will be falling onto.

      I have noticed via web cam that some snow is sticking in the city on “colder” surfaces.

  14. my friend Sean said he has about 6 inches of snow as of 7pm in his front yard in Colorado Springs. His area was suppose to only get a couple of inches but now an addition 3 to 6 could fall tonight.

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