Thursday September 10 2020 Forecast (7:08AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Discussion…

In a drought, a modest rain event is a “big” rain event I guess. Given the pre-chatter about the one coming up today, you’d think we were about to get a flooding deluge. Well, that may not be entirely that far from the truth. However, a deluge over a relatively small percentage of the area for a relatively short amount of time, most of which runs off into the drainage system, is not going to do a whole lot to fix your drought situation. That is what we’ll be dealing with for the most part. But the rain may be heavy enough, in localized areas, to cause flooding. This renders the often-said phrase “any rain is welcomed rain” somewhat false. We’ll see how much that ends up applying today and this evening as a semi-feeble tongue of tropical moisture becomes the transfer point for the energy of a cold front heading southeastward into New England. It’s entirely possible that this energy transfer not only takes the legs (and ability to produce significant showers) away from the approaching front but then puts the new rainfall so far to the south that it barely hits the South Coast before departing. I’m opting for a scenario a little less dramatic than that, and this forecast will call for showers and maybe a band or 2 of downpours in a few locations from about mid afternoon to mid evening. Regardless of how many showers are on the frontal boundary itself, that boundary will indeed push through here tonight, and while some cloudiness may linger into the day Friday behind it, it will clear out and we’ll be in an entirely different, refreshing Canadian air mass, making the bulk of Friday feel different than today will. And this is good timing if you want dry weather for the weekend, because you’ll get dry weather for most of it, certainly Saturday as high pressure moves right over the region. On Sunday as the high slips offshore and it starts to become more humid, along with more cloudiness, we’ll have another front approaching, but over the last several days I’ve noted a slightly slower and weaker trend with this system, and I still feel this is the case, so that shower activity will be later in the day and evening and limited. Another batch of drier air will arrive behind this front by Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Showers most likely near the South Coast this morning. Scattered to general showers anywhere during this afternoon. Any showers may be heavy and a few thunderstorms are also possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with slight chance of thunderstorms evening. A lingering shower possible overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling from near 70 to middle 60s. Wind shifting from S to W to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start including a slight risk of a passing light shower. Sun and passing clouds by late morning on. Temperatures steady 63-70. Dew point falling from middle 60s into the 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog lowest elevations. Lows 43-50. Dew point falling into 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point near 50. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers afternoon, favoring late-day. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 63-70. Dew point falling from lower 60s to upper 40s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

A large area of high pressure will govern the weather for a few days here, with us on the northwesterly air flow side and cooler/drier September 15, then as the high slips to the south we warm up September 16 and 17, but another cold front, based on current timing, comes through without much rainfall but a shift back to cooler/drier for the end of the period as a new, even larger high pressure area builds in from Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Overall pattern generally features zonal west to east flow at upper levels, high pressure in control most of the time with moisture-starved fronts providing air mass changes. On other words, the same overall pattern. However, as previously stated, we do need to keep an eye out for any tropical activity off of or approaching the East Coast.

75 thoughts on “Thursday September 10 2020 Forecast (7:08AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I wonder if the current dewpoints give a hint as to where the heaviest rain is most likely to occur today. There’s a pretty decent dewpoint gradient across the region.

  2. Thanks TK.

    That area of rain over and south of Long Island right now is a firehose. They’ve had some 4-6” amounts there. We’ll see what holds together but sure looks like a pretty good drink of water on the way for much of SNE just based on the radar trends.

  3. Good morning and thank you tk.

    Are you still predicting about 0.10 inch
    for boston?

    Looking at radar, it will be close, but clearly possible bulk of rain stays South of Boston.

  4. Thanks, TK…

    North, I am not a sump pump expert by any means, but could you have a broken, underground pipe? Have your water bills been normal? Do you have an irregation system with a leak? Did you recently have construction on your property or did neighbor’s or the town?

    The water table is usually very high on my lot and the sump pump has not run in months.

    Hope you can solve the problem soon!

    1. Thanks Captain. Was thinking about a pipe too. Water bill was slightly higher but I had my daughter home from college, lol.
      Mine has not been running but just had water in the bottom, which sometimes in winters and summers in the past has been dry when in drought,

  8. Discarding Marshfield Airport’s 79F dewpoint, dewpoints are reading 72F to 74F in SE Mass.

    It is nasty in the building (no A/C). I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s lower humidity.

      1. I’m sure !

        Hope this planning time has been useful.

        I am overwhelmed. This doesn’t feel like dependency on being able to teach, but whether or not you are good at computers. I have two left feet when it comes to computer. I am so confused. I don’t know how the hell I am going to communicate the curriculum to students. I know it so well and yet, this computer aspect makes me feel like I have the tallest stone wall in front of me, in terms of communicating it to my students.

        1. You have an excellent way of communicating things Tom so it’s Easy to follow you . Find someone like that to give you the basic concept that will work for you & I’m sure you will master it .

        2. My heart aches for every single teacher. I am hearing this from every corner. And to top off your understandable frustration and concern, I’m sensing from you and Captain and the wonderful teams of teachers both grands in Sutton have that concern for how to present to their kids without further frustrating them compounds everything.

          I’m torn on the mandate by many towns for teachers to have to be in the classroom when a school is all remote. Perhaps, this is something I should mention more on the covid page.

    1. Teachers are going to be the new “front line” workers much like supermarket employees were back in March.

      Good luck this 2020-21 academic year! 🙂

  11. Can’t say I’m overly impressed with the rainfall amounts being forecast by HRRR.

    … Can’t say I’m surprised either.

  12. It may just be that TK has done it yet again.

    Watching the radar, I notice 2 things:

    1. The Northern edge is being eroded as previously mentioned by TK.
    2. The overall trend on the radar is a little more Eastward motion than northward, meaning it looks like the bulk of it will
    stay South of Boston (barring any changes)

    Oh well. What else is new.

    1. Going to keep scattered downpours in the forecast. Still a soupy air mass. Still an approaching front. Still plenty of time.

      1. There is still this evening/overnight to consider, correct? I don’t see how SNE stays totally dry forever. It’s so dark and gloomy if nothing else.

        1. They are definitely not staying totally dry since there is already scattered shower activity around. We had an entire sprinkle here in Reading Massachusetts followed by breaks of sun.

          1. I neglected to finish that thought.

            There is still the risk of downpours around through the evening hours.

  17. Boy, yes there’s some showers around but watching the radar evolve for SNE this morning, it has sure had an “all systems fail” look to it. I hadn’t been paying much attention but when I saw what was happening on Long Island this morning I thought for sure parts of SNE were in for a soaking. Not so it appears.

    Sunday does not impress me, and keep in mind that after that you can pretty much lock in at least 4 days of totally dry weather. So we need the next 24 hours to produce.

  18. Big Fat GOOSE EGG in the bucket so far here in JP.

    My equipment is giving me a dew point reading of 75!!

    Logan 73
    Norwood 73
    Blue Hill 73

  19. Tom,

    I am focusing on just one piece at a time, that’s all. Right now, it’s Google Meet (we cannot use Zoom). If I can get us all using Google Meet next week, it will be a small success.

    If I am able to do a little Spanish with the four days I have the kiddos next week (two in; two at-home), it will be a good week.
    I will have a huge mixture of student levels: CP and Honors, plus “Pre-Covid” and “Post-Covid.” We run a semester schedule, so some of my students will have had the 90-day Spanish II course last fall; others will have had Spanish II last spring with the shut down and the total remote learning.

    So, I have no idea of what Spanish understanding my students will be bringing next Tuesday.

    I have agreed to give my prep block to teach all four Spanish III classes this semester (for an extra stipend). So I will be full tilt every day from 7-2.

    I usually set the holiday weekend in October as my first “get to” benchmark. If I am in a routine and in a good place by Halloween, I will be happy.

    Tom, please be easy on yourself. One thing at a time with small steps!

  21. I would like to add to my earlier thoughts with regard to teachers. I showed both Tom’s and Captain’s comments to my younger daughter. She knows both of your names well as I mention often.

    She said that in the first week of two of spring, she felt like a complete failure. She is quite computer savvy. However, she had no idea where to go for what, which password to use, how to get there, what to do when she got there. But it did improve…..not that all of that helps much. But her overriding message was that she knew also that each and every one of the teachers was in the same boat, and they were navigating the waters together with parents and students and not alone.

    This year, she has had calls from a number of teachers for both of her boys. To a tee, each starts by explaining that this is all new and please, please to bear with them and they will work it out together. Her immediate response is to reassure the teachers that of course she understands. Their immediate response is to let out a nearly audible sigh of relief…as if they did not expect understanding. That is heart-wrenching.

    I’d ask all parents to please let their children’s’ teachers know that this is a team effort and not the responsibility of just the teachers, administrators, staff, etc. I don’t put a lot of stock in social media because far too many are keyboard warriors. But the words of some are still out there and they are difficult to listen to.

    As always, I am wordy and not being very clear. I tend to get that way when I am upset and don’t quite know how to put everything together. But you are both amazing. You are ALL amazing. Know that the majority has your back and does understand.

  22. Thank you, TK.

    Saw 3 TV forecasts late last night. All 3 predicted soaking rain. My son asked me “is it going to be a drenching rain tomorrow?” I said not according to the top cat, at least not here in the Boston area. My son then asked “who is the top cat? … do you mean, Mia, our cat?”

    I tip my cap to TK.

    At this point the nowcaster in me doesn’t see much rain at all coming to Boston. Not entirely dry, but not a drenching/soaking/beneficial rainfall by any stretch of the imagination.

    It is incredibly soupy for September 10th. I’m sweating like Youkilis again after my run. I’m ready for an autumnal front. Now!

    Teachers like Tom and CF are my heroes. They’ve always been. But, as Philip alluded to, they’re on the frontline as well. They’re essential.

  23. Partly sunny the last 2 hours here in Reading. In contrast, some nice downpours on southeastern NH.

  24. Not that I put much stock in it, but the 12z GFS finally gives us the soaking that we need from a tropical. It takes the wave moving off of Africa today, has it become Sally, cross the Atlantic, move into the Caribbean, across Hispaniola and Cuba, then into the Gulf with landfall in the Florida Panhandle. it then moves back off the coast in the Mid-Atlantic, and delivers 4-8 inches of rain and winds of 50-60 mph up here in 2 weeks time.

    The odds of that scenario happening are roughly the same odds that the Red Sox make the playoffs this season. Unlike the Red Sox, this is fun to look at.

  25. I asked for and received a four-foot plexiglass shield that is bolted to the front of my teacher’s desk. You may be amused to know that it makes me feel like I am in the penalty box.

    Two minutes for slashing. 🙂

  26. Now that college football is underway again, I came up with a list of all colleges whose teams have weather-related names:

    Brevard College Tornadoes
    Centenary Cyclones
    Concordia University at Austin Tornadoes
    Crown College Purple Storm
    Dixie State College Red Storm
    Geneva College Golden Tornadoes
    Georgia Southwestern State Hurricanes
    Houston-Clear Lake Hurricanes
    Iowa State Cyclones
    Keuka College Storm
    King College Tornado
    Lake Erie College Storm
    Lehman College-CUNY Lightning
    Mills College Cyclones
    Miami Hurricanes
    New England Nor’Easters
    Simpson College Storm
    Southeastern Oklahoma State Savage Storm
    Southern Nazarene Crimson Storm
    St. John’s Red Storm
    Talladega College Tornadoes
    Texas A&M International Dustdevils
    Trine Thunder
    Tulsa Golden Hurricane

    Now you know who to cheer for.
    Wheaton Thunder

      1. Arizona State Sun Devils

        A sun devil is a weather phenomenon, also known as a whirlwind, or a “dust devil” without the dust, according to an ASU website.

    1. Too bad 90% of those run right off the baked soil.

      Eventually we’ll have a spell of wet weather that consists of light to moderate rainfall for the better part of 5 days, and a similar episode or 2 right after it. That’s probably how we’re going to break the drought, unless somehow we end up with significantly above average snowfall this winter……………

        2. Mine also. The law perked up considerably after the downpours a couple of weeks ago and with cooler temps, Dew, etc it is working hard to hold its own. I stopped watering weeks ago.

  30. Finally getting a little more popping of downpours. Best coverage is north central MA and the MA/NH border at the moment. A lot of this will run off, but a nice wet-down of the dust otherwise. But it’s temporary. It’ll be back to parched dry by Friday evening.

  31. Decent slug of rain heading though my area. We shall see how much it puts down. Nice steady light rain, occasionally moderate.

    1. Models again not so great even in the short range. Over-forecast rainfall for South Coast. Some of them had heavier showers where we have a band now, but I don’t think any of them quite had the set-up that we have. This entire event will be over in just a few hours.

  34. Pounding rains for last 40 minutes here in Andover. Weather gauge at 1.85 inches. It’s flowing all different ways throughout yard except down into the ground unfortunately….

  36. I got into some heavier showers here but every time it got to me it seemed to weaken and reform somewhere else. We did get a nice wet-down though!

  37. It is a real STICKORAMA where I am. I am hoping this is the final day of dewpoints 70 or higher until next year.

  38. The 18z GFS has a 949 storm (Sally?) off the coast on Sept. 24, the same day the Sox clinch a playoff berth. 🙂 Thanks, SAK! Made my day!

    1. HAHAHA!!!

      Don’t worry. That storm still has future GFS positions east of Bermuda, in the Yucatan, most places in between, and maybe it might turn around and go back to Africa and hit them as the first ever hurricane to hit the western Africa coast coming from the west. 😉 Oh wait, that’s just the GFS forecast. Nevermind. 🙂

    1. We had maybe 0.2. My gauge isn’t working. Insert eye roll. Guess we had ours …especially you I think….a couple of weeks ago

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