Friday September 11 2020 Forecast (7:30AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Discussion…

The tropical air mass that helped trigger some downpours yesterday is being pushed out of the region now as a cold front moves off to the south and high pressure begins to build in. It will be a transition day as we start with a lot of cloudiness and still somewhat high humidity, but the dry air will be moving in from north to south and the feel of the air will be vastly different by later today than it felt early this morning. The high pressure area that moves in will also be responsible for dry weather most of the weekend, holding off the next shower threat from an approaching cold front until Sunday night. Another dry air mass arrives early next week as a repeating pattern brings another Canadian high pressure area in.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including pockets of drizzle. Increasing sun north to south afternoon. Highs 65-72. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in low elevation areas (valleys, swamps, bogs). Lows 43-50. Dew point lower 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point rising to near 50. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds early, then partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

One high pressure area sits over the region September 16 then sinks to the south and will be replaced by another from Canada by the end of the period. Between these a frontal boundary will cross the region sometime September 18 and may delay its departure for a time September 19, bringing our only shot at unsettled weather during this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Overall pattern generally features zonal west to east flow at upper levels, high pressure in control most of the time with moisture-starved fronts providing air mass changes. We need to continue to eye the Atlantic for tropical activity as well.

45 thoughts on “Friday September 11 2020 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Picked up a well needed and nice 0.51 inch here in JP yesterday. No torrential downpours, so I think it was most beneficial.

    Dew points are falling.

    At one point yesterday, my equipment gave me a dew point reading of 77. Probably a degree or 2 high, but often times it agrees with Logan, so I don’t know.

    Good news though, it has dropped to 62 on it’s downward spiral. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK!

    0.25 inch at Logan yesterday. If that’s not a “drought buster” I don’t know what is. Every bit helps I suppose. Was it Pepperell that received 2.76”?

    Finally more persistent fresh Canadian air ahead for a change. Aaaaaaah. 🙂

    2. I see they came in within my final predicted range of 0.10-0.35. 😉

      A forecast like that in yesterday’s setup had extremely high potential of failure. HA HA!

  4. Thanks, TK

    Remembering 9-11-01.
    I remember the weather that morning like it was yesterday: a absolutely beautiful, clear, crisp and dry morning.

  6. Thanks TK
    I am going to go out on a limb and say yesterday will be the last time this year we see 70 plus dew points until next year.

    1. As long as there is tropical activity there is still opportunity for those 70+ dewpoints to return if nothing else. We still have the first half of October to go through. I have seen it happen too often in recent years. It is not as rare as it was years ago. Columbus Day weekend 2017 was downright awful as if it was July 4th.

  7. What I said might be more wishful thinking on my part. We are at the point of the year where the humidity doesn’t have the staying power as it does during June July and August. It is nice to see some fall like temps in the forecast and next week looks like a classic mid September week.

    1. Yes, thankfully we are now well past the humidity peak. It’s just for me personally even one day is too much. I imagine that is so for JPD’s wife as well. I hope she has been ok!

      Yesterday in particular was VERY stuffy.

      1. Yesterday as DISGUSTING(@!#&(!)@&#*&!@*#(&!*(@#&(*!@&#(*@!)#&*!@&#*!&@*#&!(@*#&*(!@&#(*!&@#*(&!

        What a horrible way to live!!!!!!

        Our ACs got a work out. Happy I didn’t de-install them.
        Thinking of doing that this weekend,

        1. I wouldn’t.

          Pattern may be plunges of cold air into the central US with a corresponding east coast ridge for a while.

          Rinse and repeat pattern. cool shot, then a warm up with higher dewpoints for a day or 2, etc

        2. I would wait a bit longer if I were you JPD. I don’t trust that humidity to not return for one last hurrah. Our seasons have changed a lot since you and I were kids. Maybe I’m too skeptical.

  9. Just yesterday I noticed that some trees are definitely now ready, if not already beginning to turn the typical fall colors. I believe we will have another early foliage like last year.

    Last year we had front loaded snow. A repeat?? A lot good it did us though. 😉

    Logan = 15.8”

    1. Our trees that are showing signs of change do so this time every year. But it’s a young neighborhood with young and healthy trees.

      We have had far less grow on the hill behind our home this year. Wildflowers my son planted years ago were maybe 30% fewer than previous years. We have lovely grasses that literally cover the hill in late summer. Maybe 20% of that returned.

  11. North, was it you who mentioned sump pump running? Apologies if not. I’m too new here to know whether the larger ponds and lakes are lower because they are drained …many are. But the wetlands along the roads are still showing a good amount of water which makes me think underground water is still relatively high

    1. Yes! It’s not running but there is water in the container mostly at the bottom 1/8 of it.

      That makes me feel better!

  13. It’s beautiful down here with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 70s. I am looking forward to a hint of fall in the air tomorrow.

  14. It’ cloudy and only 63 here. I’d rather upper 70s and dry.
    Why did we have to dip this low so fast. Can’t win around here.

  15. A couple quick points…

    -If you are not a fan of humidity, don’t take out your AC’s yet.

    -Healthy trees will show early color as well this year due to drought stress. Same thing occurred in 2016. Foliage season will have 2 more distinctive bursts of color – earlier than average reds/oranges and then a bit later we’ll have a gold/brown (the rustic) secondary peak.

    -As previously stated, yesterday’s rain event was “ok” but not that helpful for drought. Most of it just ran off. Simple science. We need several prolonged events. We’re not breaking this drought until that happens.

    1. Our trees are not healthy trees. They are super trees 🙂 We have lost late since we moved here. But this may be the year they lose them at a more typical time

      1. We have to have one of our trees taken out, sadly. It’s dying. Older Norway Maple. That leaves one tree in a yard we used to have 2 Norways, one sugar, 4 cottonwoods, and a purple beech.

        My neighbor has an out of control maple that he has to have taken out as well. On the bright side, about 75% of the leaves I have to clean up in the autumn will no longer be here. The other maple is in a place where any NW wind blows all the leaves away down the main road where they tend to collect (with other trees’ leaves) in a corner on the hill then squash down into the dirt over the winter. I think it’s actually been helping that hill stay stable over the years. 😉

          1. I’m not sure. But for some reason one of the 2 that are side-by-side started to die in recent years and it’s getting worse, so it’s time, because part or all of it are becoming a danger to people passing by on the sidewalk and street, and it’s also some threat to a portion of the house should it fall a certain way. So it’s coming down, along with my neighbor’s BEFORE the leaves come down. I’ll miss the trees, but looking forward to far fewer leaves to pick up.

        2. We had that in framingham With out of control…..although they never lost their leaves till late. They were on either wide of house and had split trunks so were not particularly safe. With all the wind we have here, I’m happy our mature trees are on hill behind creating a wonderful backdrop with no danger. Like the one you described, They keep the hill which is majority sand stable. I worry that the grasses have not returned this year which will compromise the hill.

          We only have to worry about flying trampolines.

  17. Thank you, TK.

    September 11th is a solemn day on our calendar.

    CF, I also remember the weather on September 11, 2001. It was clear, sunny, and autumnal in terms of dew point. On the 10th of September it was very muggy and hot in New York City, with fairly severe thunderstorms.

    In the link below are some pictures taken on September 10th, 2001 in New York City. There were numerous thunderstorms in the evening.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/september-11-remembered/2011-09-05/the-day-before-the-storm-september-10-2001-photos/2870854

    And, below is a weather-related story on the weather on 9/11 and how Hurricane Erin sat hundreds of miles off the coast.

    http://thevane.gawker.com/rain-and-a-hurricane-almost-changed-the-course-of-histo-1729963223

    1. It is a day of remembrance and prayers. I’ve said before that Macs cousins son was on a fishing trip that fateful day. It had been planned for a year. He lost 658 friends and coworkers. He worked for Cantor Fitzgerald. He has never quite recovered from the guilt. So many Beautiful souls lost. So many lives impacted horribly.

      President Bush was beyond amazing. I’ll never forget his expression as he sat in front of school children when it was whispered in his ear that the first plane hit…trying to not show his horror to the kids. He brought us together. I so wish we could find a way to come together again

        1. Hugs and love to you and your best friend. I was not a fan of some of Bush but it was so very clear how much he loved and frankly still loves this country. I remember him wearing more formal clothes to the remains of the towers and thinking he might want to be a bit less formal. Next time he wore a khaki jacket and it warmed my heart to realize he Had figured it out on his own…..maybe with the help of one of a very gracious wife.

          It’s funny what memories stick but I think he became a beacon of hope in a special way

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