Saturday September 12 2020 Forecast (8:58AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Discussion…

A very brief discussion so you can get out and enjoy great weekend weather! Our only chance of “rain”, really a brief shower if anything, comes Sunday night as a cold front passes. Otherwise it’s high pressure in control with dry weather for the next 5 days. The coolest days will be today and Tuesday.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny except a few passing clouds Cape Ann, South Shore, Cape Cod for a while this morning. Highs 65-72. Dew point rising to near 50. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sun returning. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Dew point lower 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

A cold front, current timing for early September 18, brings the only chance of any rainfall, and it will be a brief risk, otherwise high pressure continues to be dominant with dry weather and some temperature ups and downs, but overall temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Dry weather continues to start this period then we watch for the risk of some rainfall during the September 24-26 window.

42 thoughts on “Saturday September 12 2020 Forecast (8:58AM)”

    2. Also agreed. Just lovely today. And to top it off we get to spend time time outside at son’s newly purchased home. OS, he’s on tow path for The Blackstone River as well of course as on the Blackstone.

    3. I think we will be needing those dewpoints until at least Halloween. It seems that fall seasons stay warmer longer these days around here.

      1. Indeed it does. I’ve said here before that Macs cousin is part of a project that tracks things such as leaf loss, planting zine changes, etc. it may be Audubon. I’ll have to check. It is a reputable organization. And seasons are indeed changing. But then rom Barry to Eric to Pete, etc, they say the same.

  3. A comment / reiteration on recent statements I have made about our drought situation…

    A round of downpours like what we had on Thursday, even ones that dump 2 or 3 inches of rain on a swath of real estate, is not going to do a whole lot to alleviate a long term drought. Yup, it wets the ground, yup, it floods things, yup, the pond levels go up a little bit temporarily, and streams rise. Why do you think that is? Pour a bucket of water on your driveway and observe what happens over a period of time. The water has to run somewhere. It finds low spots to channel into. It finds depressions to collect in. And then what happens? It runs off and dries up. Even if your driveway was made of hard packed dirt, much like our land is now during drought, this would happen. You’re not helping the situation when you put a bunch of water at once on TOP of the soil that gravity then drains away before it can soak INTO the soil. Yes, some of the run off may help the water supply. In fact, we’re in far better shape around here with water supply than many areas in the South and West are when drought occurs. So it’s not so much the water supply we need to worry about, other than certain areas that are prone to low water level contamination from various things. The impact will be felt greatest on agriculture in the region. We may not be the Midwest, but we still have a fair amount of agriculture here, and it will be impacted by drought.

    So, we got a good dose of rain for a good part of the region Thursday, followed by essentially 2 weeks of dry weather. For an event that produced very little benefit, it’s like having 3 weeks of dry weather. As I stated several months ago, and will continue to state, we’re in this drought for the long haul.

  4. Bermuda suddenly looks in the path of what could be a decent cat 2 hurricane.

    I know they weather them fairly well.

    Without that visit last year, I wouldn’t have understood that many parts of the island have hills right to the ocean and so, storm surge isn’t a huge vulnerability. However, with that climb to 20 to 30 ft above sea level, I’m guessing they really feel the wind.

    2. Bermuda can withstand quite a storm. Even a direct hit there from my hurricane of that strength will have very minimal impact.

      1. And it is not my hurricane… It was voice text changing my words on me again in the account that I can’t edit from. Of course.

  7. Clearly, the clouds had an agenda today, and that was to make my sky condition forecast look bad. granted it’s not heavily overcast northwest of Boston but there are a lot more clouds in the sky than I bargained for. They should, however, be decreasing as we go through the afternoon.

  8. We are going to have two tales of extreme weather. The extreme fires in the west to TD19 (future Sally) dumping feet of flooding rain from SE Louisiana to the western Panhandle middle of next week.

  9. Thanks TK.

    12z GFS thru day 16… 0.10-0.25″ of rain most of SNE.

    12z CMC thru day 10… 0.00-0.10″ of rain most of SNE.

    Sure is a beautiful day though, and we can get used to it, many more of these to come the next 2-4 weeks!

    1. The GFS doesn’t bring the moisture anywhere close to here. The ECMWF does bring it here next weekend.

      Given the pattern and the model’s recent track record, especially in the medium range, I’d continue to lean dry.

  14. As I went for a run and mowed the lawn on this glorious almost mid – September day, I was thinking about the ECMWF offering SNE 5 days of rain from Wed – Sunday and some mets going for all day rain Friday and Sunday in their 7 days, and how there really needs to be a call to arms to reapply what we all know is needed in our field – meteorology, climatology, synoptic analysis, and pattern recognition or there truly will be no need for meteorologists, because we will be no better than app or web based computer generated forecasts.

    I did see the 12z GFS and it is for sure dry for 2 weeks, not sure I lean that dry, but I do think, absent tropical moisture, we are mostly dry. The 12z ECMWF is making almost verbatim the same errors in its 7 day that it did last week. Illogical frontal passage timing compared to the recognized zonal flow, misplaced northern extent of SE & Mid Atlantic moisture, and then the ECMWF fan favorite, sudden onset deepening of low pressure, as multiple systems arrive simultaneously over SNE, as it then suddenly puts the breaks on the progressive zonal flow.

    Lean dry, enjoy the weather, and keep getting outside.

    1. Yeah, I also heard that the euro updates this past year was to improve mid-latitude forecasting of systems in the mid range hours of the model… seems its gotten worst for both the tropics and the mid-lats

  15. Does this mean that the Euro is going to be quite troublesome for forecasting this upcoming winter? As if winter forecasting isn’t complicated as it is.

  19. I’m sure we’ll start seeing this, but no we are not setting a record for the most systems in the Atlantic at one time.

    That record belongs to 1971. Also, a “disturbance” is not a system, in terms of counting for such a record. But on a page I moderate, some folks suddenly think they do count. They don’t. You can’t change the rules to make your argument look correct. If you’re wrong about something factual, you’re wrong. A lot of people have trouble separating fact & opinion these days it seems out there in social media land. 😉

    On a more scientific note, you can’t have “too many” systems in the Atlantic basin anyway. A couple will always try to become dominant, which is being shown this morning with the strengthening of Paulette and the weakening of Rene.

    Another thing that needs to stop happening is people need to stop putting names on systems that have not been named yet. “This one will be come .” That’s not how it works either. Once they are named by NHC, then we can use the name their given. Saw a post on the page I moderate today using the “T” and “V” names for 2 disturbances that ARE NOT EVEN TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS yet. That post has been deleted. 🙂

  20. I may be wrong as my days all run together now, but seem to remember this is a difficult day for you, TK. Hugs to you, your family and your mom.

  22. This is a very rare situation in which one techie that has to fix something before I can get back to my other account and update the blog is camping in the wilderness and will probably not get my message until sometime early this afternoon so the blog delay will continue for a little bit longer…

    On a semi-related note, I’m thinking about a retro weekend, that is, putting the blog format back to its original 2010 for a couple days maybe next weekend .. for no other reason than just for the hell of it. 🙂

  23. The admin account is up and running and I will be updating the blog pages very shortly…

    now, I know I have laid waste to the almanac forecasts and especially that silly and stupid weather map that they put out this season which I will make no bones about the fact that I am completely disgusted by it. That said, I did pick up my annual copy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac and I am pleased with the continued tradition of laying the almanac out very much like they have for many many years and still including incredibly helpful and interesting information in the publication. Granted, we can look most of the stuff up online, but that old book has an appeal to it. And I think the best part about it is that silly little hole punched in the upper left corner is still there. 😀

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