Monday September 14 2020 Forecast (7:23AM)

35 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Discussion…

The final full week of summer is here. We’ll have a few warmer days and a few cooler days, almost an even split, but you can’t evenly split 7 days, so I’ll let you be the judge of which days get the warmer and which get the cooler. One thing we won’t have a lot of: rain. Going with a miss-scenario for the remnant moisture from Sally (Gulf of Mexico tropical system), our only shot at rain is brief and with a cold front passing by Thursday night or early Friday. Other notes, Hurricane Paulette (passing near Bermuda early this week) will stir up the seas and some large swells and rough surf will be reaching our coastline over the next few days, increasing the rip current risk, and also resulting in some splash-over, especially near high tides. In addition, we’ll have a higher fire danger with some breezy conditions at times and the ongoing drought. Also, some of the smoke from the wildfires out West will again visit our upper atmosphere and result in a hazy look to the sky at times, which can lead to more colorful sunrises and sunsets too.

Details…

TODAY: Lots of clouds into mid morning then increasing sunshine. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45 generally northwest of the I-95 belt, 45-52 elsewhere. Dew point falling to 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Dew point lower 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Dew point lower 50s to upper 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Expecting high pressure to dominate with dry weather for the entire period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal to start, then a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Continuing to watch the early to mid part of the period for possible rainfall, but trends have a little drier look now. Will continue to monitor that pattern as well as watch for any tropical activity off the US East Coast as the Atlantic is rather active at this time. This period may very well end up being dry as well.

35 thoughts on “Monday September 14 2020 Forecast (7:23AM)”

    1. Thanks TK. At least SAK isn’t going “totally” dry for Friday. The tv mets have all day showers from Sally but the main moisture just offshore.

      Well, you haven’t been wrong yet. 😉

  5. Thanks, TK

    I wish all who start school today success and health. And a sense of humor as hard as it will be might help for the first two weeks. You are all amazing

    1. I don’t recall a Vick(i) or Victoria in my lifetime but then that’s only 71 years with many other names starting with V. I do feel honored with a nana and Vicky in one year.

  7. Thanks TK.

    There are a record-tying 5 active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin this morning as the Atlantic continues to pump out storms at a torrid, record-setting pace. Tropical Storm Teddy formed from Tropical Depression 20 this morning and will become a powerful hurricane well out at sea in the coming days. Newly designated Tropical Depression 21 will be upgraded to Vicky shortly, though should be short lived. (Hi Vicki!) Quite a sight to see. We will be seeing Greek letter names this season with only one name (Wilfred) remaining on the designated list after Vicky.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

      1. I sometimes wonder the same thing and I think it’s just because there’s apparently not enough of such names. No Q either. So the conventional lists only allow for 22 names.

    3. To clarify, having 5 “named” storms at once in the Atlantic ties a record set between September 11-14, 1971. However, during September 11-12, 1971, there was also a short-lived tropical depression, so we had 6 active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at that point, which is a record that has not been tied or broken.

  8. I need to take and break and say hi and Thanks, TK!

    The hurricane map in the Atlantic looks like Flight Tracker for arrivals at Logan!

    Counting down for students tomorrow morning.
    In the words of Jimmy Buffett, “If we couldn’t laugh, we’d all go insane.”

      1. Live, in-person with 11th graders. I am giving up my prep block to teach a fourth class (for a stipend) and going four straight from 7:30-2) with a 30-minute lunch break. I am live tomorrow and Wednesday; at-home Thursday and Friday.

      2. I concur.

        At least one Boston forecaster is hopeful for a significant rainfall on Friday, but I forget who it was now. Regardless, I completely disagree with that forecast.

  13. This is probably the most significant smoke plume I’ve seen since 2007 (Canadian fires) making it into New England.

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/119168319_10158790658907265_8700628313194814912_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=APbsLMPZbaMAX-pb_us&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=580273992ddd3c40e47463c32ba2b4a7&oe=5F85EA3E

    That link is to the HRRR smoke forecast valid this evening. It will probably look somewhat similar to this into midweek before a push of cleaner air from Canada gets it out of here.

  15. A bit of a stretch with the “5 storms”. Rene has probably been dissipated for about 12 to 18 hours now. I’ll give them 4, but not 5.

    1. Well, now it’s officially 4. 😉

      But I heard from one official source we have 7. Nope. Disturbances are NOT storms. It’s common knowledge in tropical meteorology.

      On a slightly different note, the sky smoke should result in a “classic red ball” type sunset this evening, similar to the ones we saw back when we actually had more prominent summer haze (1970s-80s). We have to rely mostly on smoke plumes for these sunsets since we don’t really have true haze that often anymore, as a result of better pollution regulations since late last century. 🙂

  16. Looking at some of the recon plane data for Sally. The warmest 850 mb temps aren’t necessarily matched up with the center and the strongest winds aren’t close to the center. It’s like the system isn’t 100% tropical ???????

  17. TK – How deep into the Greek alphabet has the hurricane season been to date?

    That alphabet has up to 24 letters. Wow! Heaven forbid if we run out of letters there. 😉

    1. 2005’s season made it to the 6th Greek letter, Zeta.
      This year’s season really needs a big * though because, as I and other long-time mets have discussed here, several of our named storms were never actually storms worthy of getting names. So at the very least if we reach the Greek alphabet it will be with obvious controversy. The other big thing about this season, aside of just a handful of storms, is the lack of intensity and lack of impact of many of the storms, not to take away from any that have had significant impact. But I also feel it’s important to point that out in a time where terms like “worst-ever” and “unprecedented” are used so casually, many times with a result of drawing people away from facts.

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