Tuesday September 15 2020 Forecast (7:21AM)

35 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Discussion…

The smoke plume from the western US wildfires finally reached the New England sky in full force yesterday after flirting with the region off and on during the last week. This smoke plume will remain over the region into the middle of the week and even when the sky is clear of clouds, it will have a very milky appearance, and impact the brightness of the sun. Down here at the surface, we will continue to have our own brush fire danger due to ongoing dryness and little or no rain in the forecast to help. We will also continue to see rough surf along the shoreline through tonight as a result of offshore Hurricane Paulette, which has moved away from Bermuda and will head out over the open Atlantic through midweek. So there is quite a bit going on despite the weather itself being quiet. Cool high pressure builds in today then settles off to the south during midweek as we warm up again. A cold front slices across the region Thursday night with no more than a passing shower as many areas likely remain dry. Another high pressure area builds toward the region from Canada at the end of the week, and it’s becoming pretty certain that all of the remnant tropical moisture from Hurricane Sally in the Gulf of Mexico will pass to the south of our area.

Details…

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 65-72. Dew point near 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except high level smoke and ground level fog patches. Lows 45-52. Dew point lower 40s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear except high level smoke and ground level fog patches. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke-filtered sun may be a bit brighter than previous days. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point briefly near 60 then falling to lower 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Dew point lower 50s to upper 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Dew point falling to upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Dew point upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Expecting high pressure to continue to dominate for most of this period with dry weather and temperatures warming to near to above normal. A trough and frontal system from the west may bring clouds and a shower threat late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

The obligatory watching for tropical systems will continue, but right now it looks like that threat will be largely absent for this region, and after a threat of some shower activity around to start the period, the general pattern will continue to be one governed by high pressure and generally dry weather.

35 thoughts on “Tuesday September 15 2020 Forecast (7:21AM)”

    1. I’m cautiously optimistic we get some Pacific moisture in there in 2 stages during the next 10 to 12 days. Not fast enough, but eventually – they should start to get some help from mother nature, at least in northern areas. CA may need to wait a bit longer, but that’s not unusual for this time of year. It’s prime fire season.

      One thing that has not really been mentioned here but I will mention now – while the name escapes me there is an invasive plant that has been growing in these areas that have not burned for a long time and they are a prime fuel source for current fires. Nature is “catching up”. Unfortunately, many people are in that path.

        1. “Kudzu”was also a daily comic strip in newspapers years ago. I never really read it but I believe it was a main character. It was in the Boston Daily Globe but I don’t think it’s there anymore.

    1. Nope, 983 mb.

      But the strongest flight level winds look a bit closer to the center than last night and the warmest 850 mb temps line up nicely with the center.

  8. With few exceptions, we continue to largely luck out this tropical season. Despite a large number of storms (and alleged storms), there has been fairly minimal impact given the number of systems. No, this doesn’t take away from recognizing the impact of Laura, Sally, and even Paulette, Isaias, and to some degree Cristobal.

    Even better news, once we get rid of the current immediate threats, it looks like Teddy may stay as a fish storm, Vicky will probably not last much longer (this is what happens when the basin is “too crowded” – something has to give. The latest disturbance off Africa will probably become the “W” storm but be mostly an open water system. Beyond that, I’m cautiously optimistic for a much quieter period in the tropics coming up, leading us to late season when activity is typically on the wane anyway.

    There are also some hints in today’s longer range that the “warm autumn” idea may not really hold up that well. Not to say we won’t have our late season warm days, like this Thursday, for example, but the trend with respect to normal may be heading toward more seasonable to cooler than normal heading into October. Something to keep an eye on.

    1. Teddy still may be a threat to Bermuda, so I wouldn’t write it off as a fish storm just yet.

      The wave off of Africa still could be a threat to the Caribbean or Bermuda, but it’s still way to early to tell.

      There’s also a system that could threaten Portugal and Spain. It’s very rare to see a system north of the Azores, but they do happen. Whether it’s tropical or subtropical remains to be seen, but the models all send it towards the Iberian Peninsula.

      As for the longer range pattern here, I haven’t looked too deeply at it, and only took a cursory glance today (a sinus infection has been kicking my butt since the weekend), but the latest 45-day EPS still has temperatures near to a little above normal well into late October. The parallel run of the new GFS Ensemble that goes out 35 days also has near to slightly above normal temperatures into mid-October.

      1. Definitely not writing it off yet. I was watching that big ole broad low off the I.P. which is interesting.

        Just not convinced about the longer range. No real feel for it right now.

        Hope you can kick that infection soon!

  9. In stark contrast to the active Atlantic, the Pacific basin is once again rather quiet, with one tropical storm over open water in the eastern Pacific, and one tropical depression in the South China Sea.

    Overall, the Pacific is having a rather quiet tropical 2020. With just over 3 months left in the year, the WPAC is only at 13 storms, with an annual average of about 26. Don’t think they’ll even come close to average.

  12. Boston Mayor Walsh is expanding outdoor dining through December. It seems that he has it on good authority from meteorologists that it is going to be a mild winter.

    I would be curious as to “who” these meteorologists are that have been advising him.

    1. If he consulted anything for weather it was probably the NWS extended forecast. But beyond a 30-day forecast I have not seen them forecast below normal temperatures in about 20 years if I recall correctly. 😉 … Regardless, long range forecasts for winter are worth pretty much nothing before mid November. Besides that still, December is mostly in autumn, so the winter forecast will have very little impact on that decision either way. 🙂

    2. Not sure it matters who they are or what the weather will be…the big picture Which seems to be missed is what matters. Good for him as I am sure that people are smart enough to take out if they don’t want to sit out. He is doing this because many won’t dine in. It’s an effort to help restaurants. And it has worked.

      1. I didn’t miss any points or big pictures. I was answering his weather query because this is the weather section. 🙂

        I agree with the other points made. It has helped. 🙂

  13. ** GFS model forecast only .. not a TK forecast **

    The 18z GFS op has zero precipitation for Boston for its entire 384 hour run.

    1. The 12z GFS is dry out to day 12 or so. The 12z Control run of the ECMWF 0.1″ or less for most of SNE through 360 / day 15.

      1. Dry dry dry!
        My local pond is extremely close now to 2016’s level. I am taking photos weekly to document it.

    1. Or at its most impactful, which can come when a system is not at its most intense. This is a good example of that.

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