Wednesday September 16 2020 Forecast (1:31AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Discussion…

The western US wildfire smoke plume in our sky peaks today, diminishes Thursday, and will be gone by the end of the week, due to a shift in the jet stream and a clean Canadian air mass arriving. Before that, we have 2 warmer days today and Thursday, although the smoke plume reflecting some of the solar radiation back into space will not allow temperatures to reach their potential highs had the sky but clear. Nevertheless, it will still be on the warm side and these are 2 good candidates for end-of-summer beach days. Although if you should travel to the coast today, I caution you that some lingering rough surf and resultant high rip current risk will exist due to offshore Hurricane Paulette. When a cold front crosses the region Thursday night, it will do so with cloudiness but no rain, it will usher in a cool air mass, and it will play a part in deflecting what could have been beneficial rain associated with the remains of Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Sally south of New England. In fact, the push of cool air will be strong enough that some interior lower elevations may see their first frost by Sunday morning, and Sunday’s high temperatures may struggle to reach 60 in some of the hilly terrain northwest of Boston – a pretty autumn-like feel to the final weekend of summer for sure.

Details…

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear except high level smoke and ground level fog patches. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke thins, sun gets brighter, and a few clouds arrive late-day. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Dew point briefly near 60 then falling to lower 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Dew point lower 50s to upper 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Dew point falling to upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Dew point upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost and ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 inland lowest elevations, 43-50 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

One thing to watch early in the period is offshore tropical activity as it starts to transition into post-tropical low pressure. There may be a brief period of retrogression allowing a broad low pressure circulation to get a little closer to the coast – probably not close enough for rainfall as it stands now, but potentially close enough for some wind and ocean wave impact. By mid period we should be back into a warmer and more tranquil westerly air flow before a cold front approaches with a shower September 24 or 25.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Overall pattern remains dry, governed by high pressure. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal.

46 thoughts on “Wednesday September 16 2020 Forecast (1:31AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Great double OT win by the Islanders to force a game 6 tomorrow night in the conference finals! Still a tall order to try and win two more games against TB but regardless what happens from this point on, they have far exceeded my expectations this season.

    1. One game at a time. You can tell they were playing with that mentality. They get the lead, then give up a goal. Some teams would have said “oh here we go again…” but they didn’t quit even when they went a long stretch without a shot on goal. When they went to OT last night and the announcers were talking about how TB had not lost in OT this playoffs, it was kiss-of-death time. 😉

      Focus on game 6! There is no 7 without a win in 6. So all that matters is 6. I hope they come out with the same mentality tomorrow night.

  4. I re-worded the DAYS 6-10 part of this update which I originally wrote last night. Too much trend on guidance for low pressure not that far offshore early next week – not so much that I think we’ll be stormy, but it may delay any warm-up, cause some wind, and ocean-wave issues.

  6. Thanks TK !

    Pensacola, Fl currently experiencing a 5ft storm surge.

    The tropics are in a cycle of intensifying at land fall systems.

  9. Thanks TK, and I like the Day 6-10 wording. Not too worried about a direct impact at this point but we should at least keep an eye on Teddy.

  10. Thanks TK.

    It may be my imagination but so far today the sky looks considerably “bluer” compared to yesterday depending on which direction in the sky you look at. Still a ways to go, of course. We have probably been robbed of at least a couple days of deep blue skies to go along with this nice Canadian airmass. Yesterday “looked” more like an old school HHH day.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    This may turn out to be the driest September I’ve ever experienced anywhere.

    I recall TV mets – Eric Fisher was among them – who 2 weeks ago predicted a wetter than normal September. That’s not happening unless something dramatic occurs in the last week or so of the month. I’m not holding my breath.

    It’s dry and dusty outside.

    1. CPC also predicted a wet month.
      Granted, all it takes is one renegade system… so I won’t even come close to calling my dry forecast (in terms of monthly rainfall) a lock. Talk to me on September 29 for that. 😉

  13. While the Atlantic appears to be quieting down a little with Sally inland, Paulette extratropical and Vicky expected to dissipate, and it’s not completely quiet. Teddy looks to be another significant threat to Bermuda by the end of the weekend, the disturbance south of the Cabo Verde Islands looks to become a named storm in the next few days, and the thing in the western Gulf could bring some rain and wind to parts of Mexico.

    There are 2 other interesting storms out there, one in spot you might expect, and one that isn’t where you’d expect. Tropical Storm Noul is in the South China Sea. It looks like it may become a typhoon before making landfall near DaNang, Vietnam tomorrow. The other one is in the Mediterranean. A storm system south of Italy could get to hurricane strength before making landfall in Greece later this week. We call these storms “Medicanes”. They may not be completely tropical, but they are at least subtropical, and happen once every year or two.

    1. Thanks SAK!
      Medicanes have always fascinated me. Tracked a handful of those over the years, especially for REU Shipping Forecast!

  14. Sally dealt a devastating blow to parts of the Gulf Coast last night and this morning. Worse than expected, unfortunately, with its slow motion and a late burst of intensification contributing. I have grandparents in Pensacola who, for the moment, are unreachable. They lost power late yesterday afternoon. Brutal hurricane season so far.

  15. The map on the front page of NHC is the one that everyone always references to show how active the tropics are, but I’ve always preference the one from CHC – the Canadian Hurricane Center (based in Halifax, Nova Scotia). NHC’s map shows the location of all the active storms, and areas of interest. CHC’s shows all the active storms and the NHC 5-day forecast for each. Much better for a quick look at what is and isn’t a threat.

    https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html

    1. I was just going to comment on that. a little too close for comfort. 945 mb odf shore at just about our latitude with landfall down east Maine at 969 mb. Yikes

    2. Not unprecedented. Hurricane Gerda made landfall near Eastport in 1969 with 110 mph winds.

      What I find particularly humorous is that a has a tropical storm (it only has max sustained winds of 45 knots at landfall using the ECMWF, but is still warm-core, barely) make landfall in Downeast Maine while still giving Southern New England virtually no rainfall. That would follow the pattern we’ve had for sure.

      1. It seems to me that the 10M wind field map from the Euro
        has always been on the low side OR do I have a convenient
        memory?

        1. Actually, I find it’s wind forecasts to be rather high quite a bit. For instance – Mobile didn’t get anything close to the 107 mph gusts that the 00z ECMWF predicted for this morning.

  18. Just got off a plane in Tampa then I’m heading to Sarasota. Very bumpy ride in southern Georgia into Florida. Probably the outflow from Sally.

  19. The ECMWF has been extremely poor with tropical systems all season. It’s prudent to keep an eye on Teddy, but there’s a lot of overreactions going on right now (elsewhere, not here).

  20. Well the GFS has trended wetter for Boston. Yesterday’s 18z run had 0.00 inch rain through 384 hours. Today’s 12z run has a whopping 0.02 inch for the entire period 😉 Making progress! 😀

  21. WxW… Glad you got in touch with them! While it wasn’t a widespread event, that rain bullseye area took a beating.

    My mom and dad were familiar with that area as they had vacationed there, albeit many years ago.

  22. Is Teddy a potential mild threat to eastern SNE next week?

    Scary thought having a hurricane zooming towards the South Coast/Cape Cod from the southeast.

    1. It’s not in the right place to be a threat really, or at least the type that would produce notable effects beyond rough surf and a glancing blow of rain/wind. The “worst case” scenario is probably the Euro, but I don’t think that’s going to happen anyway.

    2. Not sure yet. I can say that the hurricane model HWRF
      has it farther West and South at hour 120 than the Euro does.
      One might assume that would means a closer pass to SNE, but
      we do not know that.

      Likely not a threat, but wouldn’t totally dismiss it just yet.

      I’d like to see a few more runs of the HWRF and the EURO.

      1. I bet you’re looking forward to the time change so the models will come in an hour earlier. 😀

        Earliest one possible under the current set-up. 2AM November 1, just a few hours after Halloween Night’s full Hunter’s Moon, a blue moon as the Harvest Moon is on October 1. 🙂

  24. The upcoming cool spell should get the fall foliage going all over SNE. I can tell just observing the trees that they are itching to turn into the typical “fall” colors. I sense another early season like last year.

    1. 2-part season…
      Drought stress & cool/dry combo will cause the reds/oranges to happen early, but also rather quickly. Hearty trees which are often your rustics will peak much later. So the overall season may appear to be quite long-lasting.

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