Thursday September 17 2020 Forecast (7:22AM)

32 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Discussion…

The western US wildfire smoke plume continues over our area through tonight, with one difference from the preceding couple of days in that there will be some actual clouds sharing the sky with it, first from the outer reaches of TD Sally which is now accelerating northeastward across the US Southeast and will pass offshore and south of New England during Friday. In addition, we’ll see an increase in mid level cloudiness from an approaching cold front from Canada by tonight. This front is likely to come through rain-free but will put an end to a brief warm up, bringing in a fresh Canadian air mass for Friday and the weekend. The dip in the jet stream helping to push this new air in will also serve to push the smoke plume out, and our sky, starting with cloudiness and still some lingering smoke aloft on Friday should end up turning much more blue before the end of that day. This will set up a bright weekend with crisp and cool air, so we will observe the last weekend of summer feeling very much like autumn. Meanwhile, Hurricane Teddy, the strongest of what is left active in the Atlantic, will be making its way northwestward in the general direction of Bermuda over the next few days. My early take on this system is that its center will pass east of the island, sparing them a hit as hard as Paulette gave them, however that’s no final call. Regardless of its track with respect to Bermuda, the jet stream may try to capture it as it loses tropical characteristics and pull it westward far enough to keep our air flow mainly from the north into the start of next week, prolonging our shot of cool air as we reach the final full day of summer on Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine will be limited by smoke aloft as well as some high clouds. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Smoke aloft. More clouds arrive. Lows 55-62. Dew point upper 50s evening, falling to near 50 overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Clearing of both clouds and smoke aloft from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Highs 62-69. Dew point falling through 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Dew point falling to upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Dew point upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost and ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 inland lowest elevations, 43-50 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH inland, 5-15 MPH coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and ground fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lower elevations, 40-47 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

High pressure centered to the northwest and offshore low pressure (Teddy) brings a cool northerly air flow to the region but with dry weather September 22, then high pressure sinks to the south and the low pulls away and we get a warmer westerly air flow with continued dry weather September 23. A cold front and a trough may pass by with some cloudiness and a risk of a brief shower during the September 24-25 period and should be replaced with another cool air mass. The only caveat this far in advance as we’ll need to watch Gulf of Mexico moisture for a potential trip into the eastern US near the end of this period, but odds favor a drier scenario.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

This 11-15 day segment now includes the first of October, and a day that will be the first of 2 full moons in October 2020 – something we’ll talk about later along with some other significant celestial happenings for the month. As far as the weather pattern for the final days of September and to start October, still looking dry to me as high pressure remains the main player. This will continue to contribute to a worsening drought and higher fire danger.

32 thoughts on “Thursday September 17 2020 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    I see, in your day 6-10 outlook, you addressed in essence, the idea of the current Bay of Campeche invest possibly having its moisture tapped in that time period for our area. I agree that odds favor a drier scenario and an actual outcome where the moisture does not affect New England. Interesting to follow though.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I may still be 1/2 asleep, but it looks like you left part
    of yesterday’s discussion in today’s discussion. 🙂

    1. I did. I copied yesterday’s over and never used any of it. The delete apparently “unhighlighted” one section before I saved it.

      Fixed.

  6. We, in Taunton, have had .07″ of rain since September 3 and .46″ for September. The lawn, which had perked up in the last couple of weeks, is back to what it looked like in August.

    2. Thanks!

      Do you have any suggestions as to how one should prepare for “a few torrential sprinkles?” Milk? Bread? Toilet paper? Sand bags?

  9. The 12z Euro is just ridiculous. It sends Teddy towards Maine again, but makes a sharp right turn at the last moment, and goes right up the Bay of Fundy. So, storm surge could be 5 feet if it hits at low tide, or 35 feet if it hits at high tide.

    Of course, all the TV mets will talk about it, conveniently ignoring the fact the Euro is not only 200-500 miles west of virtually every other model at that point, but has also been horrible with tropical systems this year. Actually, not just tropical systems – with everything. I’ve noticed that for all the various places I forecast for, in many of them, the low temperatures forecast by the Euro are a good 5-10 degrees warmer than not only the GFS/NAM, but what actually verifies.

    For example – Grafton, North Dakota (small town on the ND/MN border about 50 miles south of the Canadian border. Last night’s low temperature forecast:

    GFS 32
    NAM 32
    ECMWF 45
    Actual 34

    I’ve seen the same thing at plenty of other locations numerous times recently.

    1. This model may be at an all-time low for accuracy.

      Did they make an extra tweak we don’t know about?

  10. Trend is for things to simmer down a bit in the tropics after the next several days. Will see if this holds.

    The ECMWF (a.k.a. Everyone Chastise My Worthless Forecast) is in the doghouse until further notice. 😛

    2. I would say that Barry Burbank retired just in time. He never forecasted on air without it. I shudder to think what his forecasts would be like if he was still at WBZ. 😉

      2. My guess is he would know the Euro is really struggling and would have, at the very least, blended in some other model guidance to present a very reliable forecast.

    1. We may see the winds grab some smoke and bring it in here by the middle of next week for a while. Too early to know if it would be as extensive as this plume, but probably not.

  13. TD 22 has developed in the western Gulf. It will likely become TS Wilfred by this time tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, Teddy is now a Category 4 with 140 mph winds, and probably isn’t done strengthening yet. Recon found 131 knots at flight level. Pressure is down to 942mb.

  14. Was I imagining things, or did I really smell the smoke today (not just see it). I have a very sensitive nose.

    1. If you did, it was probably from a ground source nearby. That smoke over us is still quite elevated.

      1. Thanks for letting me know. It might have been people smoking cigarettes, for all I know. I just associated the smell with the sky which was definitely smoky.

  15. Tough loss for the Islanders tonight. Had many opportunities to win it and force a game 7. Cant complain about the effort though, they gave Tampa a run for their money. I will be rooting for the Stars in the Finals!

    1. The effort was there for sure! Great game to watch. Disappointed with the outcome, but that team has nothing to be ashamed about. They will contend again next season.

      I want to root for TB in the finals because I often will root for the team that took out my favorites to just go ahead and win it, but my heart is telling me to root for Dallas. So I’m a bit torn at the moment…

  16. Hey guess what! A new weather post is ready!
    Time for some below normal temps, in fact, quite a long stretch of them! A preview of the types of Septembers we’ll probably see more of again once AMO gets to the right place. Not that I haven’t said that a zillion times already about AMO. 😉

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