Friday September 18 2020 Forecast (7:11AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Discussion…

On yesterday’s discussion I mentioned that we’d see more cloudiness, starting with a shield of high cloudiness from the remains of Hurricane Sally. That indeed came along and combined with the smoke to limit the sunshine, which did not disappear as dramatically as it had in the smoke-only sky of the previous 2 days. The cloudiness thickened up overnight across southern areas, enough to produce a little bit of light, non-beneficial rainfall across the Cape Cod region first thing this morning. But in “blink-and-you’ll-miss-it” fashion, it will be gone soon, like it never even happened. Meanwhile, I spoke of a deck of cloudiness at mid levels heading toward the region in association with a cold front coming from Canada, and that deck of clouds is crossing the region now and will take all morning to do so. It even has retained enough moisture for a few sprinkles of rain, which may or may not be reaching the ground, parts of south central NH – another exceedingly non-beneficial “rain event” as our drought continues to worsen. What will change is the 2 warmer days we had will be a memory, as we head into a period of below normal temperatures today into early next week. I must also mention Hurricane Teddy, the second major hurricane of the season-to-date. This hurricane, while threatening Bermuda, will probably end up having less impact on the island than Paulette did, as it is likely to track just far enough east to keep the island out of the worst of it. For New England, it will produce another period of large ocean swells and rough surf, as is typical for a hurricane over the western Atlantic. This will likely impact our coastline at least through the weekend. So maybe it is a good thing that our final weekend of summer will feel more like early October, as going into the ocean water on a final beach weekend get-away will be very risky and is not recommended. If you chose to observe the rough surf, please do so safely. And in case somewhere you may have seen “alternate scenario” maps (I did), having the storm come much closer to New England, close enough impact for wind/rain impact no, Teddy is not going to come close enough for direct impact on this area. It will serve to keep a northerly air flow going into early next week, prolonging our cool spell, along with causing the rough surf. The land mass in North America that should be on the look out for a possible direct impact is Nova Scotia. One final note, we will finally see the western US wildfire smoke plume pushed out of our area during the course of the day today as a Canadian air mass arrives, and it will stay away at least through early next week. But those fires will be burning for a while, so we probably have not seen the last of it…

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including brief rain Cape Cod region and a possible sprinkle southern NH. Clearing trend northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Dew point falling through 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog possible interior lowest elevations. Lows 38-45 except 45-50 urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point upper 30s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost and ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 inland lowest elevations, 43-48 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH inland, 5-15 MPH coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Dew point 30s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and ground fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lower elevations, 40-47 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

A warmer westerly air flow takes over for the start of the period with dry weather September 23-24. A disturbance may bring a few showers September 25 and an air mass change to cooler again for the September 26-27 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Overall pattern looks fairly zonal with west to east air flow, a warm-up to end September and a cool-down to start October, based on current timing, and probably only a risk of brief wet weather with air mass change as the long term dry pattern continues.

33 thoughts on “Friday September 18 2020 Forecast (7:11AM)”

  1. SAK you were right! A few rain drops fell near Cape Cod. I think maybe about 18 of them. 😉 Drought’s over! Ok maybe not…

    Something tells me in a non-drought pattern Sally’s remains would have produced a half inch of rain down there, light rain up through Boston, and the cold front would have had a band of healthy showers on it. Not this time!

    Get out the jackets – here comes the cool air!

  6. Good belated morning. I have been so busy with work, I didn’t even have time to check in.

    Thank you as always TK.

    I am pretty sure my ACs are coming out this weekend. 🙂 🙂

  7. Nearly every single met on TV and the internet said last night when TD 22 formed in the Gulf that it “WILL” become Tropical Storm Wilfred today. Guess what? Wilfred did form today….well out in the Atlantic. The system in the Gulf is still TD 22 and if it develops (it should), it would become Tropical Storm Alpha.

    This is why you never use absolutes when talking about tropical systems.

  9. The 12z GFS has both a humorous and depressing projection for TD 22.

    It projects it to literally parallel the whole Texas coast with a pressure in the low to mid 980s, so perhaps a strong tropical storm, weak cat 1.

    Somewhat slow moving too.

  11. Tom, how’s school going for you?
    Are you hybrid or remote?

    I was in on Tuesday and Wednesday; home yesterday and today.
    Counting down to “the weekend bell” which will happen in 17 minutes.
    The only bells are in my head now.

    One of the most bizarre weeks of my life and that’s saying something!

    But, it’s working! My students have been awesome!!! So proud of them.

  12. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF has (finally) corrected well east with Teddy. I know it was discussed the other day but that model is just about unusable.

    1. That is not worthy of a name. I would stand by that 100% over and over.

      I was talking to a tropical forecaster earlier who told me that about 8 storms this year would not have been named a decade ago. I don’t know what they changed for policy at NHC but I am very disappointed.

      1. 1. The fact that it isn’t tropical. It’s not warm-core. It’s cold-core. NHC even said so in the discussion. It was over water that is only about 19-21C, which is FAR too cold to support a tropical system.

        2. The fact that it was “named” as it was moving inland into Portugal.

        1. This is not the first time this season that they have literally mentioned a system they just named as a cold core system. The water temps alone are a huge red flag. 20C water temps. Tropical cyclone. Nope. It’s cold core, as you said. That’s not how things are supposed to get names (unless you’re TWC and it’s a winter storm…) 😉

  15. TD 22 is now Tropical Storm Beta. This is the 1st time that the Atlantic has ever had 3 “Tropical” Storms develop on the same day.

    I’m going to publish a blog about the tropics as soon as all the 5pm advisories are in. And yes, I will not hold back with the criticism of NHC.

  16. And now for something slightly more positive.. 🙂
    I have a little bit of hope that the PNW may get a couple bouts of rain to help get fires under control sometime during the next 10 days. Fingers crossed. They need a bit of luck.

    California will need to wait longer, unfortunately.

      1. Probably not. Although thunderstorms with rain won’t really cause much of an issue anyway.

        I’m just hoping the pattern comes together to send them some rainfall. It’s certainly not going to be doing that for us any time soon.

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