Saturday September 19 2020 Forecast (8:01AM)

28 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Discussion…

The final weekend of summer will feel more like a weekend in early October, and in some cases it may look like it, as some of the drought-stressed trees are starting to show color. As some locations reach the 30s, and even a few typical colder spots head for the freezing point for low temperatures Sunday morning, we’ll be seeing not only the leaves turning early but some of the first sub-40-degree air about 1 to 2 weeks ahead of what is considered the average date of occurrence. So, autumn is definitely getting a jump on us. But wait, is it really? This is a cool interlude, and will last several days, prolonged by the passage of Hurricane Teddy well east of New England early next week. As the storm heads for Nova Scotia and loses tropical characteristics, its wind field will expand, as transitioning cyclones have happen, and that will keep the cool northerly air flow going here through Tuesday. The only impact we are going to see from Teddy will be large ocean swells and rough surf along our coast, especially east-facing shores, building this weekend and peaking during Monday and Tuesday. So if you are planning an end-of-summer beach visit, please keep this in mind. While the air will be a bit chilly to draw most people into entering the water, if you are in or near the water, it will be risky, and is not recommended. If you choose to view the rough surf, please do so from a safe location! Getting a few good pics and/or video is not work risking your life for. As for the actual weather, besides the cool spell – oh yes, more of the same: dry weather for the entire 5-day period and the drought rolls on and worsens. The cool spell will come to an end Wednesday when the wind shifts to the west and drives warmer air in. We’ll also see a smoke-free sky for several days as the smoke plume from the western US wildfires has been pushed to the south of New England.

Details…

TODAY: Some ocean cloud bands South Shore & Cape Cod otherwise sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point near 30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost and ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 32-37 interior lowest elevations, 38-43 most other locations except 44-49 urban centers. Dew point near 30. Wind NE decreasing to under 10 MPH except 10-15 MPH in coastal areas.

SUNDAY: Passing clouds in some coastal areas otherwise sunny. Highs 57-64. Dew point near 30. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and ground fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lower elevations, 40-47 elsewhere. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Dew point near 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Dry and warm September 24. A cold front brings the risk of a shower September 25 then a shot of cooler air follows with. Expecting high pressure to dominate for the September 26-27 weekend with a cool start then warming up. Next disturbance may bring unsettled weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Lower confidence forecast here but looking for fair weather to end September and the potential for a couple days of unsettled weather to start October. But I do not see a switch to a wetter pattern any time soon.

28 thoughts on “Saturday September 19 2020 Forecast (8:01AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Elevated fire weather potential in SNE this weekend, especially today. Won’t be the last time for that in the coming weeks.

    1. Thanks! I meant to mention that as well in my discussion above, but I’ll toss a reminder in tomorrow’s.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made it to 46 here in JP at 6:52 this morning making it
    the coldest temperature of the season so far.

    Likely to be lower overnight tonight and/or tomorrow night.
    We shall see.

    Had both furnaces serviced this past Thursday, so they’re ready to roll when we need them. Tonight? Tomorrow night?
    Quite possible. My wife and I ain’t exactly young chickens and we don’t like to be cold. It’s still 72 in the house, at least in the
    room in which the indoor sensor resides. This house is so big, the temperature is different in every single room.

    Enjoy the weekend all.

  4. Right now it “looks” like Cape Breton Island in Nova Scotia
    will take a direct hit from Teddy at or around 960 mb.
    Pretty impressive for that latitude, imho.

    1. Well, it won’t be tropical any more either, just more like a powerful winter-type storm. It’s not that unusual to see a very low pressure in a recently-transitioned low like that. Although the pressure forecast is probably too low on model guidance.

  5. Thanks TK. Was down to 40 in Coventry when I left the house this am. May have gotten a bit colder but I forgot to check the low temp. Out at the softball field now and with the breeze it feels COLD!

  9. Tropical Topics…

    SAK’s blog on the tropics was outstanding. If you have not seen it, I recommend checking it out, even though it’s from yesterday.

    So now we have Beta milling around in the Gulf of Mexico. Not great conditions there for much strengthening, but this system will probably produce areas of non-catastrophic flooding along the TX and western LA coast during the next several days. I don’t expect wind to be a huge issue.

    Teddy will bring brief TS conditions to Bermuda, otherwise it’s just a breezy rain event for them and largely a miss to the east. Eastern NS Canada will take a hammering, much like they do with winter storms, but Teddy will no longer be tropical when it arrives there. The story of the impact for us (big waves) is in the blog post today.

    Wilfred has no future and will be gone soon. Conditions are becoming quite hostile for future development in the actual tropical Atlantic through the next several days.

    The disturbance the NHC is watching further to the north near the Azores will never become tropical, but I’m sure it will be declared at least subtropical and get a name to add to the (not-really) record breaking season that they have to make sure we have, for some reason. It’s sad they are doing this, because NHC’s forecasts for actual tropical cyclones have been excellent this year. It’s not cool when politics get in the way of science. But it is what it is. 😉

    1. The disturbance near the Azores already has a name…..Paulette. It’s the extratropical remains of the system. Since it never completely lost the circulation, it would become Paulette again if they deem it tropical or subtropical. So, that wouldn’t actually pad the stats (for once).

      1. You’re right. I’d lost track of that one and this morning didn’t even realize it was the same circulation. Well that much is good. Watch them break the rules and give it a new name. 😉

  10. Thanks TK !

    With the high level shear affecting Beta, I think it’s noteworthy that it’s pressure is ‘down to’ 995 mb.

    The shear should be easing as time passes …..

  11. So what happens when we run out of Greek letters? Not entirely out of the realm of possibility when every semi-luke warm core rotating cluster of thunderstorms gets a name. Not to mention it’s still only September!

    1. There are 24 letters…22 to go. I highly doubt the tropics are going to stay this active through the end of the year.

      1. Oh I agree, but the chance isn’t zero given the rate they are naming these storms and the fact there are still two and a half months left in the Atlantic tropical season. It’s a hypothetical question and just wondering what the NHC would do.

  12. Through yesterday, Logan Sept temp running at exactly average for September and with the coming 4 to 5 days, figures to be below average by the 22nd or 23rd.

    I admit I am surprised by this, given what I thought would be a milder to warmer September.

    However, looking long range, looks like there are some suggestions for some above average temps to return.

    Our average high is down to 71F to 72F, so a decent above average day this time of year would be 80F or so.

    1. Which is why I hope JPD doesn’t put away his ACs just yet especially given his wife’s condition. I certainly have no intention of putting away my electric fan anytime soon.

      1. I highly doubt we will see 90 again, therefore, I believe
        it is safe to remove the ACS. Got busy today. Perhaps tomorrow. 🙂 🙂

  13. Re: Alpha, in one of the discussions yesterday, the NHC did write in some supporting reasoning for their decision. They noted a couple locations and their reported sustained winds, etc. Lets see if I can track that down.

  14. My honest take RE: Alpha….

    First, important to re-emphasize that it was classified as sub-tropical, not tropical. Sub-tropical storms do not contribute to Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), an important metric for measuring overall tropical activity, and they are not a “new” concept. NHC has classified them for many years.

    Sub-tropical cyclones are in the “gray area” of the cyclone spectrum. I don’t know that there’s a right or wrong way to classify them. In terms of what Alpha looked like in the hours leading up to landfall, specifically on radar, microwave satellite, and surface observations, did it meet the usual criteria for a subtropical storm? I would say yes. It’s also possible its lifetime will be extended a bit in post-season reanalysis. Would it have been named 20 years ago? No way. 5-10 years ago? Doubtful. So I don’t have a problem with it being named because I do think it met the criteria, but I also agree that there has been either a written or unwritten policy change at NHC just in the past few years to classify these systems. In terms of tracking long term trends in tropical cyclone activity, number of named storms is a terrible metric to use. Numbers of hurricanes/major hurricanes, or ACE, are better.

    1. Excellent!

      And I agree about the grey area. There are not really any sharp boundaries in meteorology due to the range of things.

      Whatever the written or unwritten policy is, I’m not a fan of it.

  15. A little update to my tropical post earlier…

    SAK corrected me because I’d somehow lost track of Paulette’s remnants. That thing near the Azores is the remains of Paulette. We’ll see what happens. If it ends up getting upgraded again, it is not even remotely unprecedented. It’s happened many times.

    Teddy even further east of Bermuda on the latest forecast, and probably maxed out intensity. Still a good storm for Nova Scotia once it gets there.

    Wilfred gone by Monday.

    Beta no longer expected to attain hurricane status according to NHC. Still a flood threat for the western Gulf.

  16. Thank you, TK.

    I’ve never experienced such a dry September. Wow! It’s not as if there’s no precipitation across the Lower 48. There’s plenty (in fact, too much in spots). But, everything seems to miss us.

    I’m sneezing like there’s no tomorrow. And no it’s not Covid-19. It’s been persistent since spring and is worse with no rain. Allergies to pollen and now certain fall vegetation. When it rains I don’t sneeze.

    Thus far, leaf colors are VERY dull this year. Similar to fall of 2016. The leaves look like they’ve wilted. No vibrant colors.

    As for hurricanes or major storms hitting Nova Scotia, I recall Hortense made landfall near Halifax in 1996, causing considerable damage.

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