Monday September 21 2020 Forecast (7:31AM)

19 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Discussion…

The final full day of summer will have the same autumn feel the weekend did as we are still immersed in a polar air mass from Canada, which will be around for Tuesday as well, the day of the autumnal equinox, as the extratropical version of Hurricane Teddy passes well east of New England. But extratropical storms have most often expanded from their smaller tropical selves, and we’ll definitely feel that in the form of an increased breeze and some high cloudiness on Tuesday as the storm passes by on its way to Nova Scotia, where a sizeable wind/rain storm will occur Wednesday. No rain for us though, more more breezy weather Wednesday, though with the wind starting to shift more to the west with time, you’ll notice it warming up over the last several days. By Thursday, the feel of summer will be back, comparatively, as the wind will be lighter and from the west. The warmth will last through Friday when a cold front pushes into the region with some clouds, but only the slightest risk of a passing shower. Another thing we will notice is the sky getting a hazier look again this week due to high altitude smoke from western US wildfires. We’ll already have some of it in the sky today that has taken an indirect rough into Canada and is now being pulled southward into the northeastern US. Another surge of it will arrive by the middle of the week from the west, although not to the degree we saw it last week. Reminder: Rough surf continues at the coast through at least Tuesday, but will begin to calm down by midweek as Teddy moves by and finally away. Another reminder: With the persistent dry weather, the fire danger is high.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine and thin high altitude smoke. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 61-68. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Remote chance of a passing shower. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

High pressure will control the weather during the September 26-27 weekend but with air on the milder side, just briefly cooler early Saturday. The final 3 days of September bring some risk of unsettled weather as a temporary shift in the pattern puts high pressure offshore and brings a trough toward the region from the west. More detail as this gets closer, but don’t expect a drought-breaking rainfall and a long term pattern shift.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

A return to a dry pattern with variable temperatures as October arrives.

19 thoughts on “Monday September 21 2020 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  3. Thanks, TK!

    35 at the house this morning
    32 at the East Taunton airport!

    It’s the 21st of September!

    Ba duda, ba duda, ba duda, badu
    Ba duda, badu, ba duda, badu
    Ba duda, badu, ba duda

    Dancin’ in September!

    1. Speaking of the 21st, today is the first day for Boston Public Schools!

      It’s remote learning for now, then hybrid next month if I understand correctly.

      Best of luck, Captain! 🙂

      1. It took me a few seconds to get the joke! HA HA! 😀

        Those were the days! I was always a VHS person btw. 😉

  7. Thanks TK and SAK!
    Made it down to 35 here in the burbs last night with a touch of frost on the roof shingles. The heat in the house kicked on last night, first time since the spring.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Really interesting look Days 7-10 on most of the guidance. Just an absolutely monstrous trough in the East. I’m a little skeptical – it’s not well supported by the MJO, and it’s not a recurving typhoon case. I wonder if that trough trends shallower, more west-based, and/or more fleeting than the current projections show. Either way, even if it happens would not expect that to stick around long, and I think TK’s forecast reflects that as well.

  9. CPC (from yesterday’s) 6-10 & 8-14 both warm & wet. I don’t really agree, despite that approximately 3-day period of potentially unsettled weather to end September.

    Their 6-10 & 8-14 day forecasts for New England have been so-so to poor for quite a while. Too much rainfall in their forecasts, along with too much warm air.

    1. At this point I would lean towards a shorter duration, less wet scenario about a week from now. I don’t think the deepening trough overhead scenario takes place, but instead a more sweeping, progressive west to east system impacts SNE around Monday with a round of region wide showers if not a somewhat rainy day or night. Then a return to cooler, drier weather, before an eventual return flow sets up bring a warming trend.

  10. The infamous Hurricane of 1938 was 82 years ago today.

    I checked my records today in the “driest” category.
    The driest month ever for Taunton was September, 1941 with 0.02″. So far we have had 0.46″
    The driest year was 27.31″ in 1965. Through September 21, 2020, we have totalled 23.26″.

    There was an article in the local paper the other day about how ponds and river are at or below where they were in 2016.

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