Friday September 25 2020 Forecast (7:20AM)

39 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Discussion…

Warm weather will be the rule through the weekend. You’ll notice an increase in humidity during these days as well, though not to oppressive levels, as the wind flow becomes southerly during the weekend. Continuing to keep rain, which we badly need, out of the forecast through the weekend. That will change as we get to the start of next week. As has been previously mentioned, an upper level pattern change will dig a trough into the Midwest and Great Lakes starting at the beginning of next week. This is likely to be a slow process. Initially as this occurs we will remain on the warmer side but there will be higher humidity and a risk of showers as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Timing the greatest chance for showers for Monday and Tuesday is not really anything that can be done yet, so this part will be tweaked as we get closer to it.

Details…

TODAY: Hazy sunshine. Highs 75-82. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear but patchy ground fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point above 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Slow passage of upper level trough with the trough axis likely staying west of the region. This will allow for additional wet weather episodes but also with drier interludes. Timing the individual rain threats is difficult this far in advance but September 30, October 2, and October 4 would be my educated guesses at this point. While I highly doubt this shift in the pattern leads to an ending of the drought, as that will take quite some time, any rainfall we do get will help, and will be a more immediate help in alleviating our high fire danger.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Zonal flow expected but mean trough may hang in the Great Lakes region. This would be a drier trend but not absent of at least brief rainfall threats. Temperatures would be variable but average fairly close to normal.

39 thoughts on “Friday September 25 2020 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  1. Thanks TK!

    Does this mean that at least we won’t have any totally dry weeks for awhile?

    Will this allow for gradual dents into our drought?

  6. The update to the post I made a couple weeks ago about the stress preparing for the school year …….

    I have a history of already having heart disease, with a stent placed in a blocked artery and have an ongoing diagnosis of hyper-tension, so I initiated the process for a medical leave of absence and so, I am not teaching this year and am planning to return next year.

    1. Tom, I can only begin to imagine how difficult this decision was for someone who so clearly loves both his work and his students. With tears, you remind me of a special man I knew who never put himself before others and often should have. I admire you more than words can say and wish you the very best in everything.

      1. Thanks Vicki !

        I miss the school day, my colleagues and the students. I´ve been checking my email 15 times per day. 🙂

        I don´t miss the stress I was feeling during those first 10 days of training.

    3. Omg, I didn’t realize. I am so sorry to hear this.
      Take care of yourself and I hope it works out for next year.

    4. You made the right move Tom as you need to take care of you first & you absolutely do not need any added stress with a heart condition. Hang in there my friend I’m right down the street from you if you ever need anything.

  9. As of the 12z runs this morning, the 10km version of the RGEM (not the HiRes, which is 2.5km) has been extended from 48 to 84 hours.

    Also, for those who didn’t know, when the GEFS was upgraded the other day, one new addition was that the 00z run now goes to 840 hours – 35 days. The data doesn’t seem to show up for more than 24 hours, but it’s another tool to use in longer-range forecasts to compare against the ECMWF Weeklies.

    2. SAK, where can one find the RGEM out to 84 hours.?
      Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather have the 48 version so they must be the Hi Res.

      Many thanks

      1. It’s just starting on the 12z runs this morning. I know that WeatherBell has it already. That’s how I found out about it. They tweeted out about the change and that they would have it available as of the 12z runs today. I imagine the other sites will add it soon as they are aware of it. Most of them still haven’t added the 840-hour GEFS that’s on the 00z runs.

  10. Tom… You made the right decision. I know you would not want to teach unless you could give your best. Taking care of yourself now will make it that you can do that when you return. Be well!

    SAK… Thanks for the info!

  12. A little historical perspective on our current dry spell.

    About 20 years ago, I created a climate database for Lowell, using data from UMass-Lowell for 1974-present, and the city of Lowell before that. I still maintain that database today. I have daily rainfall data back to 1892.

    Today is the 11th day in a row without measurable rain in Lowell. That streak likely gets to 13, before it may end on Monday. You’d think that 13 days in a row without measurable precipitation would be a fairly rare occurrence. You’d be wrong. In my 128-year database, I have 125 instances of a stretch of 14 days or more in a row without measurable precipitation. That’s once a year. There are 16 times where we went 21 days in a row or more without measurable precip. We went 28 days without measurable precip between October 1 and 28, 1947, and an amazing 35 days between October 8 and November 12, 1924.

    Then there’s the Spring/Summer of 1911. As some of you know, it was one of the hottest on record around here. Do you know how dry it was?

    April – 4 days with rainfall
    May – 5 days with rainfall
    June – 3 days with rainfall
    July – 3 days with rainfall
    August – 8 days with rainfall, but 5 of them were in the final 6 days of the month.

    So, between April 1 and August 25, it rained exactly 18 times. On average, Lowell received measurable rainfall 11 days per month. During our current dry spell, Lowell recorded measurable rain 16 times in April, 11 in May, 9 in June, 12 in July, 9 in August, and 5 times in September.

    Yes, it’s been quite dry, but in an historical perspective, it’s not even a blip on the radar yet (pun intended).

    1. Thank you for the historical information, SAK. Much appreciated.

      1911 … Fenway Park was being constructed. The Titanic hadn’t sunk yet. Taft was President. Women couldn’t vote. And, World War 1 and the Spanish Flu were still several years away.

    2. Excellent info! That database is priceless, actually. Lowell is actually a good representation of New England (other than the mountains and northern Maine perhaps). I always found it interesting that we don’t often hear much about some of those more extreme events from before in comparison to current events here. Many times we’re told how all these things are unprecedented, when many of them are not. Real #’s. That is how you tell stories. Real stats.

  13. Thank you, TK!

    Tom, I’m very sorry to hear about your heart issues. I’m glad to hear you’re taking a break from teaching. The heart doesn’t need added stress from the pandemic, hybrid (dual load) teaching, etc … Take good care of yourself. We always enjoy your posts about the weather, teaching, camping, your daughters, etc …

    1. Totally agree with your last sentence, Joshua.

      I too appreciate Tom’s posts about all these things. Maybe he’ll have more time for weather watching and explaining things foe us this winter. We’ll be his meteorology students!

  14. Thanks, TK.

    All the best to you, Tom. May you stay healthy and find joy in pursuits for which you don’t ordinarily have the time! I’m sure your students will be thrilled to have you back when the right time comes.

  15. After a little review of 12z info, I’m not overly impressed with our rain chances heading into next week. Yes, they are there, but… No, I’m not that impressed. Except maybe October 4…

        1. They are the days with the greatest chance, yes. But I said I’m not overly impressed either. Often we’ll see models forecast what looks like “decent rainfall” and most of your 7-day or 10-day forecasts in media will reflect that, but most times recently it just doesn’t turn out that way. Beyond 3 or 4 days “the models” over-forecast nearly every rain event. This is something that meteorology should be catching. It is in some cases, but not all.

          The October 4 thing is more a mix of medium range meteorology & gut feeling…and a little bit of A.M.E. as I do all the time.

  16. Tom, thank you for sharing your decision with regard to your health issues. Take care of yourself! Hopefully our world will be considerably less stressful next fall.

    And please keep posting your weather thoughts here. Your contributions have been very valuable over the years! 🙂

  17. The remains of Paulette (which has had 2 lives so far) are moving westward, about to pass south of the Azores as a well-defined low level circulation (cold core). Would it surprise me if this thing reaches warmer waters, gets a few thunderstorms, and is declared regenerated for a second time? Nope. It may very well happen in several days.

  19. “Unprecedented” is definitely an overused word, as TK implied with one of his posts above.

    I’m probably guilty of having used it when I shouldn’t have. Something that’s unprecedented should really have not occurred before. For example, snow in Boston in July. That would be unprecedented. Or, a 90F day in January in Boston.

    So, the drought we’re having is certainly not unprecedented. Though it is cause for concern and out of the ordinary. As I’ve said a few times, in my 55 years of being on this earth, I haven’t experienced a drier September.

    1. This drought is not that out of the ordinary.

      Not only was last September drier in Lowell, without another drop this month, this only would be the 7th driest September in the last 42 years in Lowell. Overall, it would be the 31st driest for Lowell. Monthly rainfall numbers for Lowell date back to 1826.

    2. A quick look back at my records show that this is not in the top 5 driest Septembers (to-date) here in Woburn.

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