Sunday September 27 2020 Forecast (8:02AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Discussion…

No big changes in this outlook, just a series of expected forecast tweaks. Cloudiness will be more dominant today as a humid southerly air flow becomes more established. This still occurs without any rainfall today, but that changes as we get into the first 3 days of the new week which are also the final 3 days of September, and the shower threat appears in the pre-dawn hours of Monday and continues off and on through Wednesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday still appears to be the most likely time period for the most widespread shower activity. Any rainfall we get will be helpful for our drought situation, which still won’t be breaking any time soon. Immediate help will come for quelling our currently high fire danger. A final wave of low pressure that moves through Wednesday evening, based on current timing, should pull a cold front through the region and open the door for a cooler air mass, indirectly from Canada, via the Great Lakes and Midwest, as October arrives on Thursday.

Details…

TODAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers after midnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Occasional showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely and areas of fog. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60s falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 65-72. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

With a trough axis still to the west of our region, we can expect a couple opportunities for unsettled weather. Continuing to lean toward October 2 & 4 as the most likely wetter days. Temperatures variable, trending cooler. For those unfamiliar, a trough of low pressure is basically a dip in the jet stream and where your unsettled weather usually occurs and the axis of it is basically its mid point. The unsettled weather will often be more likely to the east of the axis. So the set-up described above leaves us vulnerable to additional wet weather, which would be welcomed if it occurs.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Generally zonal (west to east) flow is expected with overall drier weather, but a couple minor unsettled weather threats. Cooler air probably dominates the first part of the period followed by a warming trend.

43 thoughts on “Sunday September 27 2020 Forecast (8:02AM)”

  2. Thanks TK!

    Dave Epstein showed a model with 2.24” for Boston. With additional unsettled weather going into October we may very well end this drought yet.

    Too bad the wettest will be on Wednesday when I have my doctors appointment. Oh well.

    Any chance we make up the deficit by the end of the year? Will fall itself be considerably wetter compared to this past spring/summer?

    1. A model showing 2.24 and additional unsettled weather that is largely comprised of smaller rainfall events will not end this drought. That will take weeks or even months of normal to above normal precipitation to do. That’s not in the cards for a while.

  4. Spotty color coming along throughout the area. Mike Waunkum mentioned this past week that the foliage overall should be early this year.

    There is a nice grove of (yellow) trees already directly across from the Ruggles T station. Thanks to the recent cool spell, no doubt.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    My rain gauge recorded 0.01 inch overnight.
    Was there a passing brief shower or did a bird or 2 piss in my gauge????

      1. Not sure about that. I had to go out to run some errands around 9:15, Not only were all the cars om the driveway wet (not just a little dew, but wet like a shower had come through), and the roads were wet too.

  7. Thanks, TK!

    Foggy spritz out there.

    How’s your Mom doing?

    Remembering Hurricane Gloria 35 years ago today.

      1. Second week, Philip. Thanks for asking and your support! We rotate back to Week A (three in and two out) this week. One needs a Master’s degree in Mechanical Engineering to understand the schedule. 🙂 I know that there will be a day I will be at the Middleborough rotary, a mile from the school, on the coldest, darkest day of the winter and realize that it is my remote day and I am supposed to be home!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I think, in the long run, I/we will be fine, but hybrid is a lot of work, especially the remote days. I have been working non-stop from 7 am-4 pm at home. The students have been great, but it’s going to awhile to them into the new routine.

        They have been been learning new concepts and I am moving forward with my lessons.

        It will be a long year!

        1. Boston just ended its first week with remote only. I believe starting sometime later this week hybrid begins. I think it’s Thursday.

          At least you won’t have to worry about snow days anymore, correct? 😉

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Philip, even if we get 2 inches of rain this week that won’t be a drought-buster. It will help, but we need several months of above normal rainfall/precipitation to make up for the deficit.

    Foliage is a bit early this year, and muted. Still beautiful colors.

    1. Yes, I certainly understand that 2 inches alone won’t end the drought but I do wonder if at least the upcoming months ahead through the end of the year into early next may feature a few more rainy/precipitation periods than what we have been experiencing. No, not ready to build an Ark anytime soon.

    2. Boston is around 9 inches under the annual average. Other places are 10 inches or more in deficit. As SAK pointed out, this drought pales in comparison to some of our bigger ones, however, we’re still in a drought and it’s not just going to end on a couple weeks of slightly more unsettled weather than we’ve had for weeks.

      1. I haven’t heard of any farmers complain per se other than the apple crop is a bit smaller this year.

        Also over the summer I bought peaches from the local farmer’s market and they were considerably smaller than in the past. Still very sweet & juicy though! 🙂

        1. Thankfully, so far, our drought has not had a major impact on local farms. Many of these, however, relied on irrigation to make up for the lack of rainfall.

  9. It is raining right now at my house. I must confess that I should have let all the local meteorologists know that was going to wash my car today.

    I probably have not washed a car in about five years. This morning I told my wife that the drought was getting serious enough that I need to do something about it. Ten minutes into the car wash is started raining!

  12. Thanks TK.

    Just getting spun up after a few days off/away. My initial impression of this coming system is not a drought buster, especially for SNE. To me it has the look of a system that produces a fairly narrow stripe of heavy rain somewhere, but generally underperforms in most places. We’ll see. I’ll bet on under 2″ of rain for most of SNE through the end of the week, and wouldn’t be surprised if some areas struggle to crack 1″.

  13. Just a note for model watchers, if this hasn’t already been mentioned in the past few days – the RGEM now runs out to 84 hours, the same duration as the NAM. I’ve long been a fan of that model in winter so am happy to see this, though certainly will be using the longer ranges with caution at least initially. Looking forward to seeing if it can add some value over the winter though, especially in that tricky day 3-4 range where things are usually just coming into a clearer focus.

  14. Just for the record, the 2021 OFA is calling for near normal precipitation, above normal temps and below normal snowfall for SNE.

    1. With minimal science, or at least science that is very incomplete, since a multitude of clues to the winter pattern have yet to occur.

  17. School snow days:

    I have heard from many that snow days are a thing of the past (here, families, staff) because of remote learning. This may not be the case. There could be contractual issues with remote days on snow/emergency days. While most teaching staff are salaried, most support staff (bus drivers, admin assistants, cafeteria workers, etc.) are not.

    If a remote day is “counted” as one of the 180, the day will not be made up at the end of the school year and those per diem staff will lose a day(s) of pay if the local school committees refuse to pay them for a remote day.

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