Thursday October 1 2020 Forecast (7:25AM)

27 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)

Discussion…

A new month has arrived and our same drought continues. The new Drought Monitor report issued this morning should indicate very similar or even slightly worse drought than last week’s. And we will continue to build in this drought as the long term precipitation pattern remains deficient. In the nearer term, i.e., this 5-day forecast segment, we’ll talk about 2 rain chances, but neither look overly impressive to me. First, we have a nice day today to start the month of October, not really due to any big high pressure area, but just a dry westerly air flow. There may be a few patchy clouds forming during the day and evening, but this may serve to make the sky a bit more decorative for the rise of the first of two full moons this month, tonight’s Full Harvest Moon (cue Neil Young!). Things change on Friday when clouds return more substantially with the approach of a low pressure disturbance. But it looks like the main ribbon of rainfall associated with this is going to travel across NY and western New England, and as a trough pulls eastward later in the day into the evening it will just send showers through the WHW forecast area, so I’m not looking for any beneficial rain from this. This sets up a dry weekend as high pressure builds in from the west, so that will continue to aid in building the drought and keeping fire danger elevated, although it will provide nice weather for outdoor activities (yard work, farm visits, etc.). Monday is expected to be an unsettled day and the second rain chance in this 5-day period. There is a considerable spread in what this system is forecast to look like even just between 2 major models (European & US models), with the Euro (ECMWF) touting a wind and rain event of some significance while the US model (GFS) showing a much weaker, more progressive system comprised of 2 pieces of energy that never really completely come together. You already know which solution I favor by what I said above about our rain chances over the next 5 days. 🙂

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. A few afternoon showers. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower early evening. Clearing but patchy low elevation fog overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Dry October 6 and a rain shower risk with an approaching cold front later October 7 (possibly hold off until night). A cool start October 6 then a warm-up through October 7. Fair and cooler weather October 8-9 as Canadian high pressure moves in. Clouds may return at the end of the period as it starts to warm up again but any rain chance will likely be limited.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Overall pattern features a west to east (zonal) flow in the atmosphere but some northward displacement to the jet stream allowing warmer than normal weather for most of this period.

27 thoughts on “Thursday October 1 2020 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Another month, I can’t believe it. I don’t know where the time is going, except out the window!

    We are very soon getting to a time of year where it could
    possibly SNOW! Isn’t that amazing?

    LET IT SNOW!

    Anyone in the mood for a contest? When does Boston receive
    its first measurable snow? Not sure what the definition of
    measurable is? 1/10 inch or something like that?????

    Cheers

    1. I would assume “measurable” snow is 0.1” (rain 0.01”).

      Interesting idea for a contest. We can call on Vicki to record them. Hopefully she won’t mind. 🙂

    1. I just barely slipped into the extreme drought area. Interesting.
      As I look out the Window, my grass is still mostly green. 🙂
      And no, I have NOT been watering it.

  4. I’m not convinced Saturday will be as nice as you’re depicting. The models all have a little vortmax come through, which would at least be enough to generate a decent amount of cloudiness. For several runs now, the GFS has even spit out a little bit of shower activity (less than 0.05″), focused mainly north of the Pike. On the forecasts I sent out early this morning for this area, I worded it as “Partly sunny with a slight chance for a late-day shower”. I’ll likely have the same thing in my Weekend Outlook this afternoon.

    Not a washout obviously, and not drought relief, but maybe not a bright sunny day either. That, and we’re at the point of the year that a little more cloud cover than forecast will knock temps down a few more degrees.

    1. Interesting and thank you for your thoughts on this.
      Always nice to see differing views and interpretations
      of the model information.

    2. From the latest NWS discussion:

      Weak short wave moves across the area Sat but column is too dry to yield any showers. Thus expecting dry weather Sat with just some extra diurnal clouds from the short wave.

  6. I worded Saturday the way I did so I could make a small adjustment for more clouds if necessary. I don’t expect any rain.

    Interestingly, while the NWS discussion mentions the disturbance and clouds, both their zone and point forecasts carry the wording “sunny” for Saturday’s forecast. They may want to make some adjustments for consistency. 🙂

    1. I vote for this weather from now thru May 15th, then add about 10F to 12F for late May to mid September.

  9. Thank you, TK!

    And thank you, SAK, for your contributions!

    in the Netherlands it’s been a very typical autumn, with rain showers every day (60% chance at any given time) the last 2-3 weeks, and temperatures in the low 60s. Once that prevailing southwesterly gets going it’s very persistent. I did not like fall there. Hardly any colors on the trees, lots of rain, cloudiness, and by November it’s much darker than here. I got used to it, and loved the way the Dutch made their homes and apartments cozy and welcome refuges from the elements.

  10. The weekly Drought Map is out (so many colored-coded maps these days: drought, EEE, Covid-19, presidential election).

    28.5% of Massachusetts is in Extreme Drought as compared to 10% last week. All of Rhode Island is Extreme. 24% of Connecticut.

  12. I meant to write this on Sunday on the anniversary of Hurricane Gloria, but the week has gotten away from me.

    Of the two major hurricanes that I remember being in (Bob and Gloria), I remember Gloria having the strongest winds of the two. I remember my parents’ two-story home shaking in the one of the strongest gusts.

    I thought about the strongest winds that I have witnessed in my lifetime. My unscientific Top 5:

    Hurricane Gloria, September 27, 1985
    The Blizzard of ’78, February 6-7, 1978

    The incredible, intense nor’easter on Friday, December 9, 2005. I remember hearing pine tree snapping on our campus, but couldn’t see them because of the whiteout. I can’t find the data right now, but I know there were spots on the Cape that measured more than 100 mph. My usual 25-minute drive home took 2 1/2 hours.

    December 23, 1994: Walpole had a gust of 88 mph. Seven souls were lost in a house fire in North Attleboro, three nights before Christmas.

    March 2, 2018: The winds may not have been as strong as the four storms listed above. I remember this one because I was trying to get home on my afternoon commute during it.

    Anybody remember others?

    1. I’ll do a summary of memorables soon as I’m kind of on the go today / this evening. Great post though! I will say one thing about the 2005 (Dec 9) event. I was probably lucky to have come down with a stomach bug the night before and had to miss work that day. I would have been leaving around 2 or 3PM into the nightmare to drive in. Instead I got to marvel it from home while recovering. What an amazing event.

  13. JP Dave, First measurable snow in Boston (I guess we’ll have to go with Logan) will be November 26th. It won’t be much. It’ll be part of a snow squall line that moves through as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. Worcester Hills and Berkshires may get a couple of inches.

  14. JPD… First measurable snow in Boston will be December 1, and we’ll have to shovel it. 😛

    1. Are you hinting at a front loaded winter like last year TK? I have a gut feeling it will be. The early fall colors are a tip-off, at least for me personally.

      I am considering November, no specific date as of yet.

    2. Probably as I’m having my procedure on 12/3 so I’ll get stuck doing an all nighter lol .

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