Friday October 2 2020 Forecast (7:36AM)

22 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Discussion…

As expected, the new Drought Monitor report issued yesterday shows all of the WHW forecast area in moderate to severe drought, and this will not be improving anytime soon with only 2 minor rain events in the next 5 days and a long-term dry pattern ongoing. The first of the 2 minor rain events will be later today as 2 pieces of energy stay far apart, one escaping well offshore while another passes northwest of our area and just drags cloudiness and a brief episode of showers through the region. High pressure builds in for a nice weekend, and then a similar situation to today happens Monday with non-merging energy. This one could have turned into a more important storm had it had a better chance to come together, but it’s not in the cards, so look for some unsettled weather Monday with a period of rain or showers, but again nothing drought-busting. High pressure returns Tuesday with more fair weather.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. A few patches of fog interior lower elevations. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

A fairly zonal (west to east) flow will be the dominant weather pattern. Warmer October 7 but a late day or evening episode of showers and even possible thunderstorms with a cold front approaching and passing through. Breezy, cool, dry October 8 as high pressure approaches. Fair, cool, less wind October 9 as high pressure moves overhead. A warm front / cold front combo with a quickly moving disturbance will bring clouds and a minor rain threat back on October 10 followed by breezy and cooler with dry weather October 11, based on current timing of features.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Continued zonal pattern but northward-displaced jet stream is the expected set-up which would be a dry and mild to warm pattern for mid October. With poor model performance this is only a moderate-confidence outlook.

22 thoughts on “Friday October 2 2020 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  3. Well, now that I am on the correct page, thank you TK.

    It’s a shame that the axis of rain is well to our West today and by looking at radar, by the time it shifts Eastward, there won’t be
    much left of it.

    1. Remember this date in mind come mid-January when that axis of snow will do much the same thing. You know how snow potentials are. 😉

      1. There’s no difference between rain potential and snow potential.

        It depends on the synoptic situation. Otherwise the atmosphere “doesn’t care”. 🙂

        1. It never does.

          In Winter, they will be Lakes Cutters and/or inside runners
          and then on rare occasions, a big storm will stay off shore
          for a miss. An Ocean Liner as BB would say.

          1. Pending other factors, if La Nina is in control enough we may not have to worry about any southern jet stream systems. 😉

            1. So, without southern stream influence, we would continue to struggle to get out of this dry pattern in the cold season.

            2. Although a northern stream dominated cold season can feature snow squalls, arctic blasts and maybe the occasional clipper that intensifies south of us.

          2. I forgot that Barry would use the term “Ocean Liner” for those well offshore (miss) events. 🙂

            I sure miss Barry’s on air presence. Oh well.

            Haven’t seen much of Harvey lately either. Mostly Mike Waunkum now.

              1. Still no official announcement on a retirement for Harvey. I guess he’ll call it a day when he’s ready. 🙂

  5. And as we thought, the weakening tail of showers moves through the bulk of the eastern part of the forecast area now. Enough to wet the ground – maybe a few hundreths of an inch in some places.

    Also as expected, the Euro is correcting toward a better solution for Monday, coming off that bad forecast idea of a nor’easter. Now, some media outlets will have to scale back their early forecasts of a potential significant wind/rain event for Monday. Based on synoptic meteorology, it was not really ever likely to happen (unless things were set up differently, as stated in this morning’s discussion). Meteorology, not modelology. The saying never gets old, does it…

    1. Where does this Date of first snowfall fall historically?

      Ryan Knapp
      @WXKnapper
      6h

      Late – we usually see our first flakes in late August or early Sept, then our first inch in September (typically melting though) and then our first seasonal inch (or more) accumulating in Oct.

      1. Later than average due to fewer precipitation events, not any temperature issues. 🙂

  8. Thanks for sharing the pictures, Mark, of one of my favorite places in the world – summit of Mt. Washington – and Stowe.

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