DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)
Discussion…
High pressure brings nice weather for the first weekend of October. Disorganized low pressure, or 2 areas of low pressure not really getting their act together as a unit, bring some unsettled weather on Monday, but this will not be a beneficial rain event and will move out rather swiftly. Another area of high pressure brings fair weather to the region Tuesday, but things continue to move along quickly in a west-to-east flow pattern and by Wednesday, low pressure will be passing north of New England, and we’ll have a quick warm-up before a strong cold front brings a risk of showers and even a possible thunderstorm by the end of the day.
Details…
TODAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of ground fog lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm afternoon and evening. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)
The large scale weather pattern will continue zonal (west to east jet stream with fairly low amplitude). Expect high pressure to build toward the region October 8-9 with a shot of much cooler air along with wind that finally settles down later October 9. A warm front / cold front combo with a quickly moving disturbance will bring clouds and a minor rain threat back on October 10 followed by breezy and cooler with dry weather October 11 then dry and milder weather October 12.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)
Continued zonal pattern but northward-displaced jet stream is the expected set-up which would be a dry and mild pattern which may shift cooler again later in the period.
Thanks Tk it’s a nice morning in the city
Good morning and thank you TK
Thanks TK. And yes, as expected, a major fail by the Euro for Sunday night-Monday. I see many ghost storms in our future from that model heading into winter…
Many “blizzards” heading our way but little “snow” to show for it. One of those winters…
Well a weather pattern like that would not be a surprise, given we will be La Nina dominated. But his reference is more toward the model’s tendency to forecast storms that were never going to be there in the first place.
If people look at that crap-tastic model and get excited every time there’s a storm on it, that’s on them. Meteorology will allow some of us to know better, and then we will pass that information onto the rest of the crowd. 🙂
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK!
According to Dave Epstein, get ready for widespread (killing) frost next weekend.
Will “Indian Summer” follow soon thereafter?
Next Saturday morning may be a very cold one (based on current timing), but it may come down to a narrow window of opportunity between a gusty NW wind and a quick return flow of warmer air. So we’d need high pressure pretty much right over us Friday night & early Saturday after a strong cold air delivery.
I think we warm up after that, maybe a bout of “Indian Summer”. The bigger story: Long-term dryness.
I have always thought of La Niña winters as good snow producers around here, if anything. Oh well.
Some of them are. But I am not convinced this one will be. Our best snow winters come with active southern jets (there are exceptions).
Thanks TK !
987 mb on Gamma, relatively speaking fairly low pressure for a tropical storm. Glad that has encountered land so it doesn’t strengthen more.
What happens when we run out of Greek letters? 😉
Provided they don’t start naming water molecules, that will never happen.
Lol !!
A good article on the typical winners and losers in a strong La Niña winter.
https://unofficialnetworks.com/2020/08/21/winter-2020-la-nina-snow-forecast/
It’s usually pretty dependable that the Pacific NW, Alaska and Canadian Rockies will be cold with above normal snow, and the southern tier of the US is warm and dry with the lack of an active southern jet. In the central Rockies and Northeast, we are in the “wildcard zones“.
Dave Epstein expects beautiful fall foliage this year due to the very dry conditions.
I also imagine the chill for next weekend won’t hurt either. 🙂
That is correct. Although the previous cold shot gave it a significant jump start. While leaves are far more responsive to the angle of the sun and length of day, which is why the variation will never be more than a couple weeks either side of “normal”, more variable factors such as precipitation, both long-term and short-term, as well as temperature variation will also play a role.
Beautiful today! We’ve had a lot of good ones, and many more to come. This pattern is as bone dry as it gets. Great for recreation, obviously not good for the drought situation.
At least the fall foliage will be beautiful for a change this year thanks to the dryness.
New weather post…