Sunday October 4 2020 Forecast (7:23AM)

20 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Discussion…

Short and simple update for your Sunday. High pressure continues to influence the weather today which will be another nice day to round out the first weekend of October. A couple areas of low pressure will miss connections to become something more important as one passes by to the north with another offshore Monday, pretty much keeping a rain chance from occurring and turning it into a clouds giving way to sun kind of day, fine for doing things outside but not great news for helping our drought. A warm-up takes place as we head toward midweek before a strong cold front sweeps across the region, providing the only rain chance in this 5-day period, in the form of showers, during Wednesday. The delivery of a chilly Canadian air mass occurs behind this front on Thursday with a gusty northwest wind and more dry weather.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower early. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of ground fog lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly afternoon hours. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)

The large scale weather pattern will continue zonal (west to east jet stream with fairly low amplitude). Breezy weather and likely the coolest day of the season-to-date is expected for October 9 before a warm front / cold front combo brings some cloudiness and a warm up October 10 but only a minimal shower threat (probably staying dry), and a minor cool-down for October 11 behind that system. A northward-displaced jet stream allows a quicker warm-up with continued dry weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Keeping an eye on a possible shift in the jet stream configuration which would start out zonal with mild and dry weather here, followed by a little more amplification and at least some potential for unsettled weather. This is a fairly long-range and therefore only low to moderate confidence outlook so remember that adjustments are likely.

20 thoughts on “Sunday October 4 2020 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  1. Thanks TK!

    According to Dave Epstein, 80F for next Sunday. I guess we are not done with summer-like temps not quite yet.

    Hopefully we are done with 90 though.

    1. That’s assuming that forecast is right. Although 80+ in October has happened a good number of times. As I say every year, unless it’s somehow accompanied by high humidity, which it won’t be, it really doesn’t feel that warm.

    1. Down to 49 at Logan yesterday, so not “too” much of a differential in temps between airport and rest of the city.

  3. Thanks TK
    I enjoyed reading meteorologist Ben Noll basketball weather analogy
    Short-term forecasts are like layups.
    Medium-range forecasts are like free throws.
    Long-range forecasts are like three-point shots.
    Seasonal outlooks are like half court shots.

  4. On this day in weather history back in 1987 the earliest snowstorm on record happened for parts of western CT, western MA, and the Capital region of NY. Snowfall amounts of 6-12 inches occurred. I do not remember this storm as I was just three years old at the time.

  5. Mark hopefully will chime in on that October 4, 1987 storm. I believe he was living where that snowstorm happened.

  6. Thanks, TK!

    Another tropical cyclone celebrating our grandmothers!

    First, Nana, and, now, Gamma!!!!! 🙂

  7. Patriots game slated for Monday Night as of right now which means that Hoyer unfortunately is going to start which means the patriots are gonna loose probably in a big way. I think It can stay close for the first half possibly because of the defense but the offense is not going to be be able to do much and will not not keep up with Patrick Mahomes in the second half.

    1. Yup, and back in September of 2001 I went to a game in Foxboro when Peyton Manning and the Colts were going to come in a roll over the Patriots, because they had some kid named Brady making his 1st ever start. He had no chance to keep up with Manning. Final Score: New England 44 Indianapolis 13

      (Yes, I still have the ticket stub)

  8. I remember that October 4, 1987 snowstorm vividly growing up in Amsterdam NY. I was 11 years old at the time and we woke up to 6” of heavy wet snow. Portions of the Taconics had up to 20”. There was tremendous tree damage and lots of branches and power lines down with all the trees being fully leafed out. I was stunned when I woke up that morning as it was not forecasted at all for our area.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news10.com/news/looking-back-snowstorm-rocks-capital-region-on-oct-4-1987/amp/

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