DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)
Discussion…
After some areas saw a frost this morning, another seasonably cool October day is in store today, but this one will come without the wind of yesterday as we are in a weaker gradient on the northeast side of a high pressure area, but that gradient will tighten up again Saturday as the high slips off to the south, remains rather strong, and is pressed by low pressure passing to the north. If you are out and about tonight, especially late, you may notice that the coolest part of the dark hours occur just prior to midnight, and that the wind picks up a little and it feels a little less cool as we approach dawn. Along with the increase in wind again Saturday will come a big temperature jump, and it will remind you a little of the summer days of not so long ago, other than our sun angle is now much lower. It’s interesting to note that if the lowest potential temperature tonight is reached, these areas could have about a 40 degree diurnal (spread from lowest to highest temperature) from Saturday’s very early morning hours to its early afternoon hours. A cold front will move from north to south across the region Saturday night and other than a slight chance of a few passing showers, it will just bring mainly clouds with it as it turns our wind to the northeast by early Sunday, which will turn out to be much cooler. While most of the clouds associated with the front will move out early Sunday, we’ll probably have filtered sunshine for a good portion of the day as the high cloud shield from what will be the remains of Hurricane Delta (currently in the Gulf of Mexico) spreads across the sky here. The meteorological conundrum in my head the last few days has been whether or not we get into the rain from the remains of that systems, and if so, trying to determine its significance. Yes, I do believe we will get into it, somewhat, but that it probably holds off until late Monday or even Monday night and into Tuesday. At this point, I am reluctant to say we’ll have a regional beneficial rain to help our drought situation, but any rain, so long as it’s not coming too fast and furious, will help. So I’ll continue to monitor this and fine-tune the rain chances as we get closer to the event. Also, please see the comments section below for some information sent by a long time colleague which refers to hurricane landfalls. It may surprise you.
Details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH this morning, W under 10 MPH this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and shallow fog interior low elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lowest elevations and 40-45 elsewhere occurring by midnight, followed by a slight temperature rise overnight. Wind W under 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-30 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NE from north to south.
SUNDAY: Limited sun South Coast early, otherwise filtered sun with considerable high clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (COLUMBUS DAY): Cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly late in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Humid. Highs 60-67. Wind shifting to S 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)
A tough from the west may help produce additional rain showers to start this period before moving eastward, then one additional front may bring an additional rain shower threat late October 15 to early October 16. Temperatures start above normal then go into a general cooling trend.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
Low to moderate confidence outlook for a west to east flow overall but mean trough position Great Lakes to Northeast with a cooler regime, but mostly dry weather.
From a long time colleague and respected forecaster (who prefers to remain anonymous)..
They’ve given me permission to share their frequent statistical and factual messages, and here is the most recent one, prompted by a flood of social media comments about how rare it is for the same state to get two hurricanes in one state in one season.
“All this hype about the same spot in LA getting hit twice
in once season by a hur. It is *not* unusual, and it
was a lot more common in the late 19th century to the mid 20th.
Not as common since. Multiple landfalls in the same state
as well occurred more often then. 2 hur landfalls in the
same state in one season hasn’t happened in 12 years.
Proof by verbosity below? Yes, but these are hard facts
and gives all the data in the last 160 years as to frequency.”
—–
3 hurrs made landfall in LA in 1860, 2 in the same spot.
1 of the 3 was major.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1860.png
2 in the FL Panhandle in 1877
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1877.png
2 in the FL Pahandle in 1882
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1882.png
2 in the same spot in swrn LA in 1886. Another 2 on the
TX coast. 2 in almost the same spot in the FL Pahnadle with
a 3rd N of TPA.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1886.png
2 in 1893 (1 major) close in sern LA and 2 major on either
side of the SC border coast.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1893.png
2 in 1898 on the GA coast (1 major). Extremely difficult to
get just 1 hur to make landfall on the GA coast coming in
from the E or SE, let alone 2 in the same season.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1898.png
2 in 1896 (1 major) in the FL Panhandle
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1896.png
2 directly over MIA (1 major) in 1906.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1906.png
2 in TX (1 major) in 1909.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1909.png
2 in AL (1 major) in 1916
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1916.png
3 in cntrl-srn FL in 1926 (2 major) over/near MIA.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1926.png
2 (1 major) in almost the same exact spot in S FL in 1928
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1928.png
2 (1 major) in almost the same exact spot in far srn TX
and 2 (1 major) also in the same exact spot in sern FL in 1933.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1933.png
2 (1 major) in S FL in 1935.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1935.png
2 upper TX coast 1942
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1942.png
2 in FL (1 major) in 1945
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1945.png
2 (1 major) almost directly over MIA in 1947
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1947.png
2 (1 major) in S FL in 1948
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1948.png
2 (both major) in FL in 1950
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1950.png
2 in FL in 1953
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1953.png
2 (1 major) in 1954) in New England
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1954.png
3 in NC in 1955.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1955.png
2 (1 major) in SC in 1959
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1959.png
3 (2 major) in FL in 1964
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1964.png
*** 21 year gap ***
2 in LA in 1985
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1985.png
2 very close to HOU in 1989
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1989.png
2 (1 major) almost directly over Pensacola FL in 1995
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1995.png
2 (1 major) in NC in 1996
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1996.png
3 (2 major in S FL) in 2004
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2004.png
3 (2 major) in LA in 2005 and 3 (2 major) in FL in 2005
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2005.png
2 in TX in 2008
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2008.png
Thanks Tk definitely a chilly start this morning .
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thanks for hurricane info. Most interesting.
Thanks TK !
Thanks, TK…
34 here on the ye ole Oregon Scientific
31 down in the bogs of the East Taunton airport
30 at 6 am at the Norwood airport
Thanks TK.
Made it down to 39 here in JP for the coldest of the season to date.
Resisting urge to turn on heat briefly. We had left a couple windows open a bit last night. Thermometer in center of the house was 59F a few hours ago and am guessing a little cooler in the north side of the house. Meanwhile, the rooms facing east and south are warmer for sure.
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2020&ui_day=282&ui_set=2
Early in autumn, appears eastern Siberia running below average snow cover but southwestern Siberia/eastern Russia running above average.
Last week I posted what I believe to be the strongest winds in storms in my lifetime.
December 9, 2005 came to mind. I found the report on that snowstorm. NWS/BOX noted:
105 mph on Block Island (public)
101 mph Wellfleet (public)
100 mph Orleans (public)
96 mph Eastham (amateur radio) before anemometer was knocked down by a falling tree
94 mph Nantucket Harbor
81 mph Taunton (measured by a NWS employee)
73 mph Manomet (NWS spotter)
That must have been crazy out on the Outer Cape.
Was looking at the current ENSO this morning …….
Looks like early in the year, we started with a neutral to slightly positive ENSO, have trended to a LA Nina condition and projecting out, the projection is for ENSO to trned back to neutral, if not slightly positive next spring.
Looking at the history of El Nino, LA Nina, I would suggest that 2005-2006 had a similar ENSO pattern.
I’m going to have to take a look at my notes later to see how much snowfall for Logan during that 2005-06 season. Off the top of my head, I don’t think it was above normal, or even close to normal for that matter.
There was a decent snowstorm in January 06 I believe
February 12, around 17.5 inches.
2005-06 was below normal at Logan, but not by much. Considerably better than I thought.
39.9” (43.8” normal)
Of course a projected ENSO that is somewhat similar to that winter doesn’t really mean that we’re in for a winter like that one. There are only about a dozen other factors to take into account, some of which will be unknown for about 6 more weeks.
Latest recon plane pressure: 963mb. Slowly rising.
Here’s an issue with having 2 vastly different weather sources on one media outlet. WBZ radio this morning played an AccuWeather teaser which indicated rain late Sunday into Monday from the remains of Delta, immediately followed by a forecast from Eric Fisher that stated the chance of rain was later Monday into Tuesday. Oops.
FTR, I’d go with Eric’s forecast on that one.
Looks like Delta might have come ashore with a pressure around 970 mb.
Quite a rain shield to its north. Hopefully, the weakening state will have the right front quadrant areas experiencing a strong tropical strong with some occasional hurricane force wind gusts.
WIll be interested to see what the rainfall totals end up.
Models will have to back off a bit on the rainfall totals for up here for them to be in the correct ballpark.
What range are the models currently projecting for our region ?
The ones I looked at during the course of yesterday were in the 1-2 inch category for the most part.
A nice shiny new weather post has been written with great care just for you. Feel free to ignore it and just go right to the comments. 😉