**Full update by 3PM**

32 Comments

Temps fall thru 40s this aftn and light rain comes in..picks up and ends as mix and snow tonight. Coating of snow in some places…best chance hills west and southwest of Boston.

Amateurs and pros…give me your guess how this unfolds. Full update from WHW this afternoon!!

32 thoughts on “**Full update by 3PM**”

  1. Thank you TK.

    Everything appears to be juicing up. Transition to snow will be quite quick, I think.
    Read somewhere of reports of lightening in the Appalachians. Satellite looks good.
    Radar looks good. Now it is just a question of how much precip we actually receive.

    Waiting on 12Z GFS

    We shall see.

    1. 12Z GFS total progged precip for event:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F17%2F2011+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=024&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      Again, Not too impressive.

      So, unless there is some sort of surprise, no big deal. Always watching though.

      1. Temperatures and most especially dew points are falling all around the region. 11AM Boston down to 47 and 33 respectfully, while Worcester is down to 41 and 29.

        First impulse of precip “appears” to be weakening and nothing special will get going until the 2nd impulse gets here, IF it gets here and that is the key. Radar images seem to indicate that
        it will get here. When it does, there should be a fairly quick transition to snow and then it is how much precip falls.

        Here is a radar loop:

        http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USCT0094&animate=true

  2. Probably just enough of a coating to pretty things up and remind us that winter is lurking.

    looking forward to seeing how next week unfolds.

    1. Looking at the 12ZGFS, not so good.
      Too much Warm air advection!!! BUT, there is still time.
      The Euro hinted at a warmer solution days ago, while the GFS
      had a cold solution. Now look.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F17%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=138&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  3. This will be a MINOR deal with any snow that should fall and nothing like what parts of SNE saw during the Pre Halloween Noreaster. Only giving this a 1 on the snow index.

      1. The dryness will help with the Evaporational cooling that will need to take place in order to support snow flakes at the surface. I’ll be able to give my predictions when I get out of school and am able to look over the radar.

        1. Dew Point in Boston down to 28, temp down to 46.

          First very light rain drops appearing in Boston.

          Is this stuff really going to get in here? OR is most of it
          destined to be off-shore after all?

          http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

  5. Hmmm… Perhaps there is hope?

    Consider the following RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) model for the 700MB Relative Humidity over the next 7 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F17%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=RUC&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    If it is going to do anything, it will happen within this time frame.

  8. I think it is just too dry north of Boston for any snow to get in here. It looks to me like the precip is steadily moving to the east and the back edge is to the NY/MA border. Even though radar shows it raining, we have not seen a drop in the Merrimack Valley. I wouldn’t be shocked if we don’t see any type of precip up here.

  9. Raining in Boston. 3PM temp at Logan dropped to 43.

    Shouldn’t take too much more, that is if precip maintains.

    1. Sleeting? Hmm…the colder air aloft hasn’t made it there yet?

      Is this your observation?

      Perhaps it’s Graupel???? lol

    1. The best I can determine in this light, is that snow is mixing in here in Boston.
      But it is not precipitating that hard. If it came down a bit harder, it would
      go right over to snow.

      Here is why farther South it is:

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.15316304347826087&scale=0.385&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=438.5&map.y=170.5&centerx=451&centery=245&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1

      1. Coming down harder in Boston and mixing now. More
        slowly than I thought it would, that’s for sure, but it is mixing
        now for certain.

  15. Pretty evident that we will run out of precip before too much can happen.

    Oh well, it was fun watching.

  16. 4 PM Observation from Blue Hill:

    East Milton, MA
    (KMQE) 42.21N 71.11W
    2 Day History

    Last Updated: Nov 17 2011, 3:54 pm EST
    Thu, 17 Nov 2011 15:54:00 -0500
    Temperature: 36.0 °F (2.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 93 %

    It clearly would have been cold enough if a decent shot of precipitation could have
    gotten in here. I’m afraid this was just a teaser.

  17. Precip went Poof here in Boston. Never switched over.
    I guess that is about it. Close but no cigar! Lol

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