DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Discussion…

Some of you may be suffering quite the bout of allergies today – a result of 2 out of 3 windy days, dry ground, and one last push of weed pollen, as well as “fine particulate matter” such as dust or even fragments of dried leaves. Another product of long term drought and short term wind today will be high fire danger, and the NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning as a result. No, that doesn’t mean you have to be on the look-out for red flags falling from the sky. The red flag, or red symbols, have always been associated with warnings or directions to stop, like a red flag in a race being a signal for all drivers to not drive with caution but come to a complete stop. The red flag at a beach would mean that rip current risk was extremely high and swimming was not advisable (while two red flags indicate a closed beach). There is a notation on the net I found that a red flag was used in river areas as a flood warning in the late 1700’s, which would be of particular interest to early settlers having agriculture near rivers. Currently, the red flag is not a flag in the literal sense, but the phrase is used by the National Weather Service to basically tell you that you really should not have any open flames outside. That would be wise advice to heed today. Why is it windy? Simple, the high pressure area that delivered our cool October air has now moved to the south of New England and is still pretty strong, while low pressure is passing by to the north, also pretty strong for a polar jet stream system at this time of year. The difference in pressure between the 2 is significant, and changes quickly over a relatively small distance, squeezing the air flowing between them (from southwest to northeast where we are). The squeezing of that air results in it flowing faster. So now that you got through that long explanation of red flags not falling from the sky and why it’s windy today, what about the rest of the weather? Yes, on to that. Warm today, ahead of a strong cold front that will cross the region tonight. That cold front itself may bring its own interesting weather in the form of showers and even an isolated thunderstorm that could translate some strong wind gusts to ground level, resulting in pockets of tree damage. This will not be a widespread event like the one we had at midweek, but just isolated to scattered, and favoring areas mostly north of I-90. But the front will make it through the entire region by Sunday morning, and Sunday will be much cooler as the wind will be blowing from the northeast. Although I think we’ll have a fair amount of sunshine Sunday after any early clouds associated with the front have departed. The sun will become filtered by high cloudiness moving into the region during the afternoon. This cloudiness is associated with the leading edge of the moisture from what was Hurricane Delta, which made landfall in Louisiana Friday as a Category 2 storm, just to the east of where Laura made landfall last month. If you recall yesterday, I posted some information showing that it is not as rare as some may think for hurricanes to make landfall in the same state twice in the same season (please refer to the top comment on yesterday’s blog for that info if you missed it and would like to see it). Next question: How much rain? Some. But not a great deal. Not a drought buster. But any rain we will take, and we’ll get some by later Monday as it will take the moisture a while to fight the dry air and get in here. And our rain opportunity will be around for about 24 hours until it’s pushed out to sea by a cold front from the west on Tuesday, which likely starts wet and ends dry. This sets up a dry but pleasantly mild Wednesday as the air behind that cold front is not polar, but Pacific in origin.

Details…

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusting around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, including pockets of strong wind near any showers/storms, shifting to NE from north to south.

SUNDAY: Limited sun South Coast early, otherwise sunshine becoming filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (COLUMBUS DAY): Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain showers and areas of fog through midday Breaking clouds and partial sun later in the day. Highs 60-67. Wind E shifting to S 5-15 MPH morning, then W with higher gusts by late-day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Medium range guidance continues to struggle with timing and features so I’m going to do my best to sort it out by anticipating their errors. Current best guess for this period is for one cold front to sweep through early October 16 with a mild day ahead of it and a brief cooler shot (though not too chilly) behind it. Another front approaches with a slightly more amplified trough by October 17 which may end up mild but rather unsettled. A push of cooler/drier air follows this later in the period. Don’t be surprised if there are adjustments in this outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

The early to mid portion of this period should be dominated by westerly flow with limited rainfall threats and variable temperatures with nothing too extreme. Watch the end of the period for a possible close pass or visit from a wet weather system to the south of New England.