Sunday October 11 2020 Forecast (7:56AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Discussion…

Hopefully if you have allergies they have eased up, though that may be doubtful as we get another dry/breezy day today. And we still have somewhat elevated fire danger as most of our region saw no rainfall at all with the passage of the cold front, and those that did in the WHW forecast area saw it only very briefly. But the front is through, and the warmth of Saturday is gone, replaced by a more seasonable October chill today, which will still be quite the nice day. Next up: The remains of Hurricane Delta. That will bring is a spell of wet weather for about 24 hours from the middle of Monday to the middle of Tuesday, but I’m afraid for a good part of the region it won’t be as beneficial as we’d like, with probably only 0.25 to 0.75 inch rainfall for a good portion of the region. There will likely be a few areas that exceed the 0.75 inch mark. Of course any rainfall will help, but when you are not following it up with another hopefully non-flooding rainfall event soon after, the benefit is minimized as the ground doesn’t have much of a chance to loosen up to accept subsequent rainfall events. Time will tell, but I still feel we’re in this drought for quite the long haul. One adjustment I’m making in Tuesday’s forecast is the wind direction and temperature. The low pressure circulate that was one Delta will pass southeast of our area, not northwest of it like I suspected previously, and this will change things up a little from what the previous forecast had said. Either way, when we reach midweek, it’s back to fair and mild weather.

Details…

TODAY: Limited sun near South Coast to start, otherwise sun & high clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (COLUMBUS DAY): Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy through mid afternoon with periods of rain eventually tapering to drizzle. Areas of fog. Clouds may break at the end of the day, especially west of the I-95 belt. Highs 53-60. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of fog lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

No change in the struggle of our medium range guidance, so once again A.M.E. and not making too many changes at this point. Cold front expected to bring a rain shower threat early October 16 followed by a drier interlude. A quick warm-up ahead of a stronger front that brings unsettled weather October 17, followed by a push of cooler/drier air October 18, a quick warm-up following that and the next round of unsettled weather possible by October 20. Despite the increased frequency of precipitation threats, I’m not looking at this as a change to a beneficial rainfall pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

The early to mid portion of this period should be dominated by westerly flow with limited rainfall threats and variable temperatures with nothing too extreme. Watch the end of the period for a possible close pass or visit from a wet weather system to the south of New England and a push of colder air possibly following that. Low confidence that far in advance.

33 thoughts on “Sunday October 11 2020 Forecast (7:56AM)”

  5. Thanks TK!

    This may very well be the last “Columbus” Day Weekend to go leaf peeping as there was a mass demonstration yesterday in Boston to remove his name from the holiday itself. Expect “Columbus Park” in the North End to get a name change as well.

    At least the foliage should be spectacular just outside of Boston. Even in the city there are nice splashes of spotty color on some trees.

    1. they should have done it last week with KC which probably would have given the team the ability to keep people seperated that were in close contact.

      1. You are right Matt. Instead they packed the entire team in a 1000 sq ft room even though the Patriots had requested they be moved. The NFL refused and shame on them!

          1. yeah I saw that. They also didn’t go right to the Titans when they had that out break but when Cam got a positive. They “sent” a represented to make sure no rules were broken by the Patriots when there were no rules broken meanwhile they didn’t look at the Titans who broken rules until last week if I understand correctly. I also feel like the NFL should have a week 18 built in for Covid impacted games. Instead of having that KC/Pats game it should have been moved to week 18 slot.

      2. The NFL is in disarray and has handled Covid horribly disregarding the players safety . No one is even certain how this season will end let alone a super bowl .

  9. NAM from 18z is now very close to what I think will happen for rainfall. It’s possible my 0.25-0.75 spotty 1.00 inch was not even conservative enough. 90% of the initial batch misses to the south. Most of what we get occurs during the Tuesday calendar day. I think 0.10-0.50 inch is the best bet now outside I-95, 0.25-1.00 inch inside, with the higher amounts confined to the South Coast and/or Cape Cod. Still some room for adjustment and fine-tuning.

  10. Wow that was a gruesome ankle injury for Prescott. I feel for him knowing how crappy ankle injuries can be. Once you have a lower leg injury, much easier to injure it again and again and again. Also increases knee injury possibility as well.

    1. Yes, VERY sad. I watched a grand total of 5 minutes of football today, which included (unfortunately) that gruesome injury. I feel terribly for Dak Prescott.

  11. Thank you very much TK.

    I am hoping for some rain, as my allergies kicked into high gear this weekend, just as you said they would.

    Beautiful Saturday and Sunday, though. And folks, I will always call it Columbus Day weekend. I don’t believe in cancel culture, even if the canceling is done for a good cause. Native Americans and indigenous peoples have been kicked around, massacred, and denied land for hundreds of years. Columbus didn’t start that, but did partake in it. Still, his discovery of parts of our continent was truly remarkable, as was Leif Erikson. Perhaps’s Leif’s discovery was even more remarkable, given when it took place. But, Leif was a vicious man – worse than Columbus in terms of cruelty, apparently. The Inuit suffered enormously at the hands of the vikings. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t want Leif Erikson’s name to be erased from history, or even from the halls of Keflavik airport in Iceland (the main terminal is named after him).

    1. Some people think erasing history makes it that it didn’t happen, apparently.. ?? I’m not understanding it. We’re setting ourselves up to forget things we shouldn’t, because they’ll end up being repeated. There’s truth to the saying…

  12. It was especially painful for me to watch the Dak Prescott injury as a Cowboys fan. Unless the Cowboys use the franchise tag on Dak again or get a long term deal done this injury could be the end of his career as a member of the Cowboys.

    1. Thank you for posting SAKS weekly update I always enjoy it on Monday’s in addition to you’re weekly . Quite cool in the city with cloudy conditions.

  14. Joe Morgan passed away at 77. Bob Gibson, Lou Brock, Tom Seaver, Joe Morgan. Can this year get any worse?

    My brother and I were at Game 1 of the 1975 World Series. It was a dreary October day, very much like today. This picture – NOT taken by me! – is from that game. It’s of Joe Morgan at the plate with Carlton Fisk catching. Baseball was at its zenith. Morgan was one of the greatest second basemen to ever play the game. RIP, Joe. https://twitter.com/harrisongolden/status/1315659843882160131/photo/1

    1. It’s been a brutal year for old-time baseball fans like myself, and perhaps you, too, JJ. I have baseball cards of all the famous players who passed away this year.

  16. SSK Whitey Ford was a Yankees pitcher who played for them for all sixteen years of his career, six time World Series Champion, and has the most wins by a Yankees pitcher with 236. He was nicknamed the Chairman Of The Board. The Yankees would have Old Timers Day once a year and he would always be there. He passed away Friday at 91 years old.

    1. Thank you for the explanation. Baseball is a sport I kind of follow only a little bit . I’m big into football .

  17. Speaking of football it was not an easy day yesterday for me seeing my QB Dak Prescott go down with a horrible knee injury. I could not enjoy the win against the Giants after what happened to Dak. I am wondering if that is the last in a Cowboys uniform. He is playing on the franchise tag this year after a long term contract extension could not be agreed upon.

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