So-called circuit breaker lockdowns are going into effect across Europe. These are not the strictest of lockdowns, but are certainly stricter than anything that’s been tried in this county. They are temporary: 2 or 3 weeks in duration.
They’re aimed at preventing groups of more than 4 or 6 people (eg, Netherlands and the Czech Republic limits on gatherings to 4, both inside and outside; and UK limits gatherings to 6 – so-called “rule of 6”) from socializing. This includes people’s homes, offiices, on walks outside, etc … All bars and restaurants will close for 2 weeks in the Netherlands. In the U.K. they’ll either close or have limited hours. They will be paid by the government to remain afloat and continue to keep their employees employed. Recreational trips are strictly forbidden. Severe fines will be levied on violators of any of the rules that go into place. In the Netherlands, fines of 250 euro ($300) per violation will be imposed. Repeat offenders will get fined 1,000 euro. Similar fines in the U.K.
Why the concern? Hospitalizations are rising fast in the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Belgium, and France. Rising less fast but still increasing in the U.K., Spain, and Italy. Rotterdam (Netherlands) has almost maxed out on ICU capacity. They’re moving less critically ill Covid-19 patients to other cities to make room for critically ill Covid-19 patients. Non-Covid-19 care is being curtained, not because hospitals want to do this, but due to capacity issues.
U.S. hospitalizations are also rising, in line with what Spain, Italy, and the U.K. are seeing. I don’t think we’ll see any circuit breaker lockdowns here. If anything, it’s pretty much herd immunity by default in most jurisdictions. The President certainly doesn’t give a damn, and many governors idem ditto.
This said, the strange thing is that many more primary schools here are closed than in Europe, even in Republican-led states. It appears that there isn’t much spread in primary schools, and so the circuit breaker rules do NOT apply to schools in most European countries (Czech Republic is an exception).
I’m very curious to see the data later this week, as the weekend effect gets processed. My guess is government ministers must already have an inkling that some bad numbers are coming out this week.
No we won’t see anything remotely like what other countries are doing here.
As far as schools…are we sure that the increase has nothing to do with them? Our surge in many cases coincides with school openings. I’ve never believed in coincidence. We know kids can have covid but not show symptoms. We know that multigenerational homes are hugely increased in this country..
Just food for thought .
Good question, Vicki. I just don’t know. Not an expert on these things. My best guess is that children don’t spread it as much as adults.
I do my best to sort through the data. I speak to epidemiologists regularly for my work. And, my brother is an immunologist, and other brother an oncologist, while my sister is an internist. Yesterday, they taught me something new. Influenza also has high and sometimes very high numbers of asymptomatic individuals (>50%). It’s just that we don’t test large swaths of the population like we’ve been doing for coronavirus. It’s likely that viral load and T cell cross-reactivity play a role in determining whether someone is symptomatic versus asymptomatic.
Humble is the word for the night. Here and elsewhere. Nice comment, Joshua. I am not sure anyone knows. One thing that sticks out with this virus is that it’s novel. Sadly, we write the book a bit behind as it happens.
To me schools, sports, and the whole shebang needs to be shut down or we will continue to spiral.
C-19 for 10-13 is now ready.
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So-called circuit breaker lockdowns are going into effect across Europe. These are not the strictest of lockdowns, but are certainly stricter than anything that’s been tried in this county. They are temporary: 2 or 3 weeks in duration.
They’re aimed at preventing groups of more than 4 or 6 people (eg, Netherlands and the Czech Republic limits on gatherings to 4, both inside and outside; and UK limits gatherings to 6 – so-called “rule of 6”) from socializing. This includes people’s homes, offiices, on walks outside, etc … All bars and restaurants will close for 2 weeks in the Netherlands. In the U.K. they’ll either close or have limited hours. They will be paid by the government to remain afloat and continue to keep their employees employed. Recreational trips are strictly forbidden. Severe fines will be levied on violators of any of the rules that go into place. In the Netherlands, fines of 250 euro ($300) per violation will be imposed. Repeat offenders will get fined 1,000 euro. Similar fines in the U.K.
Why the concern? Hospitalizations are rising fast in the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Belgium, and France. Rising less fast but still increasing in the U.K., Spain, and Italy. Rotterdam (Netherlands) has almost maxed out on ICU capacity. They’re moving less critically ill Covid-19 patients to other cities to make room for critically ill Covid-19 patients. Non-Covid-19 care is being curtained, not because hospitals want to do this, but due to capacity issues.
U.S. hospitalizations are also rising, in line with what Spain, Italy, and the U.K. are seeing. I don’t think we’ll see any circuit breaker lockdowns here. If anything, it’s pretty much herd immunity by default in most jurisdictions. The President certainly doesn’t give a damn, and many governors idem ditto.
This said, the strange thing is that many more primary schools here are closed than in Europe, even in Republican-led states. It appears that there isn’t much spread in primary schools, and so the circuit breaker rules do NOT apply to schools in most European countries (Czech Republic is an exception).
I’m very curious to see the data later this week, as the weekend effect gets processed. My guess is government ministers must already have an inkling that some bad numbers are coming out this week.
No we won’t see anything remotely like what other countries are doing here.
As far as schools…are we sure that the increase has nothing to do with them? Our surge in many cases coincides with school openings. I’ve never believed in coincidence. We know kids can have covid but not show symptoms. We know that multigenerational homes are hugely increased in this country..
Just food for thought .
Good question, Vicki. I just don’t know. Not an expert on these things. My best guess is that children don’t spread it as much as adults.
I do my best to sort through the data. I speak to epidemiologists regularly for my work. And, my brother is an immunologist, and other brother an oncologist, while my sister is an internist. Yesterday, they taught me something new. Influenza also has high and sometimes very high numbers of asymptomatic individuals (>50%). It’s just that we don’t test large swaths of the population like we’ve been doing for coronavirus. It’s likely that viral load and T cell cross-reactivity play a role in determining whether someone is symptomatic versus asymptomatic.
Humble is the word for the night. Here and elsewhere. Nice comment, Joshua. I am not sure anyone knows. One thing that sticks out with this virus is that it’s novel. Sadly, we write the book a bit behind as it happens.
To me schools, sports, and the whole shebang needs to be shut down or we will continue to spiral.
C-19 for 10-13 is now ready.