Monday October 12 2020 Forecast (3:38PM)

11 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Discussion…

Sorry for the delay in today’s update. Part one of Delta’s remains are in the process of failing to produce much rainfall here. Part two will be a little more successful on Tuesday as they interact with a cold front moving into the region to wring a bit more moisture out in the region. This will help out drought situation but just a little bit. We have a long way to go to break that. Some guidance has significant rainfall forecast for late this week although I’m skeptical. That falls around the end of day 5 into day 6 so I’ll just say I’ll lean conservative on that part of the forecast for now and re-evaluate later. In the mean time, after our wet day Tuesday, we clear out and will be mild for the middle of the week.

Details…

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty very light rain / drizzle. Highs 54-61. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially after midnight. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain with embedded heavier rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of lower elevation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Becoming partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Models have continued to struggle so sorting those potential errors out I come up with a mild day and a risk of rain showers October 17, a cooler & drier day with breezy conditions October 18, a warm-up following, and a risk of additional rain showers around October 20 before a late-period cool-down.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Two significant pushes of chilly air are possible during this 5-day period. Also possible is a storm system to the south that threatens with rain, but probably stays mostly to the south or offshore. Low confidence forecast. Please follow updates.

11 thoughts on “Monday October 12 2020 Forecast (3:38PM)”

  1. NAM running now for 18z. I expect it should start catching up and lowering previous rainfall forecasts somewhat.

  2. ECMWF out of control with forecast for late this week. Too much rain. No surprise on the likely error.

    GFS ensemble reasonable.

    For anybody interested, since it is not possible to have a full SNE Weather Conference this year, there will be an abbreviated but free online version for approximately 2 hours on the morning of Sat Nov 14 2020. Mish Michaels is one of the presenters.

    You can sign up for it here. And yup, it’s free.

    http://sneweatherconf.org/?fbclid=IwAR2CI9QPLX3Ag8HLa4rHwm5PhQ-tcxyUqflfz9quW1FG5kE-0gMXopk3PY4

  3. Thanks TK!

    Ch. 7 showed a model with 0.8” for Boston with most areas receiving 1.00 inch on average for tomorrow. Do you agree TK?

    I see you have “late summer” temps from Wednesday through the end of the work week once again. Last gasp for the season??

    1. We can always get warm surges even later. 70+ has occurred in both November & December. Will this year’s pattern support it? I have my doubts at this point, but time will tell.

      I still like 0.25-0.75 inch for the majority, locally 0.75-1.25 but I think that’s going to be quite the exception.

  5. National Weather Service has determined that last week’s event fits the criteria to be classified as a derecho.

    I think it is a stretch, and that what we experienced was really just a very powerful and sustained squad line. But the bottom line is it was a long swath of damaging wind. So I accept their conclusion.

    1. It was pretty incredible I was on the porch for the entire 5 minutes & I was impressed especially what it did with the haunted house unfortunately. Also the windshield of my truck was cracked . Saying all of that I definitely have seen worse but nonetheless impressed for that very short event . It took a lot of trees down in town , loss of power ( 25 hours for my house & canceled all the schools In town .

  6. RE: Derecho…

    I use the term almost tongue-in-cheek because it’s not a very meaningful distinction. As TK has alluded to, a more classic derecho, also known as a “progressive” derecho, is largely self-propagating, whereas this was really more of a squall line forced along a strong cold front. So it falls into the “serial derecho” subclass. But it does meet the criteria as I suspected initially, so I agree with the conclusion, though it’s definitely low grade compared to many others like what hit Iowa a couple months ago.

    Bottom line, NY/SNE got walloped and it was a very impressive event especially for the time of year, and poorly forecast.

    RE: current system…

    Today was a “gross” day down here, but rainfall amounts have been drastically lower than what the models forecast. I suspect the same will be true in SNE, and TK has been outlining that for days.

    1. Well done, WxW. I had noticed when I read your comment after the event that you specified serial derecho. Your comment here has me Smiling also. We are not alone in recognizing all you have to offer. Clearly the NWS recognized the same.

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