Tuesday October 13 2020 Forecast (7:04AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Discussion…

Delta’s remains, part 2, will interact with an approaching cold front from the west today and produce a decent rainfall across the region. This will not be a drought-busting rainfall by any stretch as now we are at the stage of drought where we need a long-lasting pattern change to more consistent precipitation to do that. This moderate rainfall event will help a little in the short term, but do very little for long term issues. It’s not our only chance in this 5-day period, as at the end of the week another approaching trough and frontal system from the west will bring additional wet weather. With time, however this event looks a little shorter in duration and less beneficial than its initial pattern set-up might indicate. Between these events will come some pleasant October weather with above normal midweek temperatures.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain with embedded heavier rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with evening rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Clearing overnight. Areas of ground fog. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon rain showers. Highs 65-72. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely mainly during the morning. Temperatures steady 55-62 morning, falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Cool/dry/breezy October 18 behind the late week frontal system. Warming up quickly October 19 with additional unsettled weather about October 20. Potential cool-down later in the period with dry weather returning, but this part of the confidence is low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

The trend will be to try to bring pushes of colder air in. The most likely chance for unsettled weather is around October 24-25 as it stands this far in advance. We still have to watch for an ocean storm south of New England around the middle of this period.

46 thoughts on “Tuesday October 13 2020 Forecast (7:04AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    It’s been pouring buckets here this AM! About time we didn’t miss out on one of these.

    0.85″ in the rain gauge so far today and 0.07″ yesterday for a total of 0.92″ thus far.

  5. Thanks TK ! It is good to see the rain ! Some waves of heavier rain, now it’s a nice gentle, light rain.

  6. Not doing a whole lot of anything here at the moment, but have
    managed to accumulate 0.46 inch in ye ole bucket so far today.
    We got Zilch yesterday.

  7. FWIW …. the GFS seems pretty consistent giving a long term signal for a tropical feature developing and emerging from the Caribbean. Its signal has climatology on its side, as far as where mid to late October development is more likely in the tropics.

    1. 6Z Shows it well, but what will the 12Z run show? We shall see.

      6Z shows a near miss for us with a touch of rain SE sections.

  8. I wonder if from Prov to Boston to the north shore and anywhere SE of that …. we see some convective elements intensity the next few hours.

    Can feel it getting milder and more humid. That chill of yesterday and very early this morning has faded.

    1. It’s less organized than yesterday and after today it meets hostile conditions. With the convective activity on only one side and rather displaced from the center, it’s not nearly a TD yet, and will likely never make it unless it miraculously survives the hostility it’s about to encounter. 😉

      However, given the current tendency of NHC to name everything that doesn’t have winds only in a straight line, I’m surprised they feel the way they do. 😉

  12. Thank you, TK.

    For anyone who’s interested I like to photograph nature in urban settings. There’s plenty of wildlife, even in the middle of the city. My site is amateurish, my photographs not of Audubon quality by any stretch of the imagination. But, my forays into the wilds of Boston help me through the pandemic and other stresses. https://hubwildlife.wordpress.com/

    1. I’m a fan of that kind of photography, along with many other kinds as well. As time goes by I’m shifting more & more into that kind of thing. Might have to create a WHP blog sometime. 😉 I checked out some of your stuff – excellent!

      1. TK – Your work is amazing. I’m actually going to take you up on your offer to let me steal the images from FB and my friend will custom frame – TK GALLERY OPENING – 2021!!

        1. Thank you very much. 🙂

          New camera will be up and running by October 30. My goal is to photograph the second full moon of October with it. Now I just need a sky that isn’t overcast on Halloween. 😉

    2. nice, pictures. With the Monarchs there have been a push to include flowers in the city of Boston that attract Monarch butterflies. There have also been efforts to grow and release them in hopes they fly south as well to try and replenish the population. Unfortunately a certain someone has rolled back regulations on certain pesticides that are known pollinator killers.

      1. Not sure if you are familiar with singer / songwriter Paula Cole. She raises & releases butterflies. She’s a MA native. Not sure where she is living at the moment, but I’ve met her a few times and been to several of her live performances. Everybody knows either of both of these songs: “Where Have All The Cowboys Gone” and/or “I Don’t Want To Wait” (featured on Dawson’s Creek), her two top 10 hits in 1997.

    1. A lot of places are getting some good rain. I’m happy with it. I had my doubts this thing was going to produce this much. Granted, it’s no drought buster, but it’s a nice drink. If we do end up with some good rainfall later Friday, the combination of these 2 events will help open up the soil. That will be GREAT if we can get follow-up rains, but will be a waste if we do not.

  15. I’ve a feeling the Euro Weeklies are going to get blown out of the water, and I wouldn’t be surprised given the ultra-suckage of that model’s applications for quite a while now, especially regarding temperatures. It’s missing temps by 5-10 degrees on forecast UNDER 24 HOURS into the future. That’s absolutely abysmal.

    I’d like to watch for an ocean storm south of New England around Oct 24-25.
    I’d also like a dip into a cooler than normal pattern end October to early November.
    Maybe a bit of a warm-up toward mid November. It will be around that time we will be able to add the Oct/Nov pattern into the pot when thinking about the winter forecast.
    My winter outlook for 2020-2021 will be posted right before Thanksgiving.

  16. JP Dave, most of the pictures are within a mile radius of my apartment on Beacon Street. The water lily pictures were taken in the Esplanade Park (lagoon).

    I do mention if I’m on a `road’ trip to take pictures elsewhere (eg, Rhode Island, Concord, Vermont, London last year, Nantucket).

  17. Still pouring here in Manchester CT. Rain has been relentless all day here. Far exceeded my expectations.

    2. It was a good producer. For once, something exceeded expectation. Don’t think it’s a trend though.

      I was doing a little long range investigating this afternoon and oh my are we in drought trouble through the winter, IMO.

  18. 2020-2021 Winter Weather Outlook for Weather Works:

    https://youtu.be/dV7OWpA-pLM

    These guys are a private meteorological consulting firm and I posted their outlook last year as well. I think they do a pretty good job explaining their thoughts as well as many of the caveats and unknowns at this early stage.

    Cutting to the chase, their outlook is for near normal snow in SNE and a more active winter up in NNE. Here in SNE we are in the battlezone area that sets up between the warm and dry SE Ridge that is typical of La Nina years and cold air intrusions from the NW with a dominant polar jet.

    One thing I found interesting is that the La Nina seems to have trended not as strong in several of the models and is also an Eastern Pacific based La Nina. In these types of setups we can see the ridge over the northern Pacific set up further north and east which can in turn send more frequent colder shots from Canada further south and east, pushing back on that SE ridge.

    Of course there are many more factors that will play into this but early on, I’ll take my chances in the battlezone area and a somewhat weaker La Nina. If we can get a few of the other indices to work in our favor (PNA, NAO, AO, MJO, etc) we can get some bouts of cold and snow in this type of pattern.

    1. Of course, getting the more frequent bouts of cold air in here is one thing, you still need the moisture to produce the snow. And that might be an issue with the dry northern jet stream dominating, as TK alluded to above.

  19. Accuweather has also issued their 2020-2021 Winter Weather Forecast:

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2020-2021-us-winter-forecast/818601

    They seem mostly in line with the other forecast I posted above….generally mild winter on the East Coast but cold shots in the Northeast and near average snow in New England.

    They add that the Northeast winter will be book ended with more cold and snow to start and end the winter with a milder/drier pattern in between. This to me sounds a lot like last winter’s outcome, albeit probably not as wet.

    1. Risky doing these forecast without the benefit of having studied the pattern from mid October to mid November. This is why the majority of winter forecasts issued before mid October don’t verify as well as the ones issued about 5 or 6 weeks later.

    1. And immediately back to the east for the 06z run.
      The GFS usually forecasts a scenario like this at least once every October. 🙂

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