Wednesday October 14 2020 Forecast (7:32AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Discussion…

Temporary benefit from rainfall occurred yesterday. It’s greatest benefit was reducing fire danger. A lesser benefit went toward our drought situation, which will take one more rather minor hit later this week but continue its longer term staying power due to a longer-term dry pattern. But in the shorter term, yes we will have another shot at a significant slug of rainfall, although this one looks a little less potent than yesterday’s, and also shorter lived, and will materialize as a wave of low pressure forms and moves across the region from south to north on a cold front moving slowly west to east across the region between late Friday and early Saturday. Before? Two very nice October days with lots of sunshine and mild air. Although Thursday will become quite breezy during the day, especially the afternoon. So if you are looking for the combination of both mild air and not too much wind, this afternoon and Thursday morning are your times. Thursday afternoon will be the warmest but also the windiest time period. After? Once low pressure gets beyond our latitude on Saturday we’ll see a rapid drying trend along with a gusty wind and a quite shot of chilly air. While Sunday starts chilly, we’ll see a nice recovery with dry air and sun.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts near 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patches of ground fog over interior lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-61. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Some early sun then mainly cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east by late in the day. Highs 66-73. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Numerous rain showers. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with a period of rain morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Temperatures steady 55-62 morning, falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog forming overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing to under 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Fair, mild October 19. Frontal system crosses about October 20 with a risk of rain showers. Fair, cooler then milder again behind this as high pressure dominates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Watch for an ocean storm south of New England during the first part of this period, and potentially another one offshore later in the period as well. Overall, while this is a low confidence forecast this far in advance, the idea is that the storms will have minimal impact in terms of precipitation, but will be part of a pattern that starts to drag colder air down from Canada for late October.

48 thoughts on “Wednesday October 14 2020 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Picked up a nice 1.67 inches in the bucket from yesterday’s
    rain event.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK!
    I too had a beneficial 1.52” in the bucket, hopefully we’ll add a little more to that Friday night. Hopefully these wind events are done for a while, there was a decent amount of cleanup that had to be done at my house from last weeks storm. I would say equal to that of the tropical storm back in august.

  5. Thanks TK.

    1.58″ in the rain gauge here in Coventry CT but we narrowly missed a heavier band that set up to our north and west where widespread 2-3″+ fell. Portions of Essex County and Worcester County also ended up in the 2-3″ range. Finally an event that overproduced.

    Totals from the NWS:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    The only area that really missed out was the South Coast, Cape and Islands where only 0.5-.75″ fell.

    1. I “May” Have to do a calibration on my rain gauge.
      In looking over nearby stations, I seem to be a little bit over most of the readings. Most were in the 1.45 to 1.55 inch range and I came in at 1.67. Although Blue Hill came in at 1.79 inch
      and I am about 8 miles from there. However, another site in Milton had 1.46 inch.

      It was really raining very hard here for a fair amount of time,
      so it is possible my gauge is still correct, but enough inconsistencies lately to warrant some concern. I shall continue to monitor.

      So, we shall see. I’ll do a compare with the next event and see.

  7. There´s a stream in town that has a bit of flow this morning. Its a nice change from the stagnant water that had been there for weeks. The stream had gotten so low, that there were mini ¨islands¨ in the middle of the stream. And there´s a small lake/reservoir? up on Rte 3A between Marshfield/Scituate that is feet below average capacity with the edges completely void of water. I haven´t seen it after yesterday´s rain.

  8. 6z GFS with a solid 1.0-1.8″ of rain across the region from the coastal storm Friday night – Sat AM:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2020101406&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    00z Euro is more robust with a good 2″+ across most of the region although its totals in eastern MA are about the same.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc&rh=2020101400&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The difference being the Euro is more amped and hugs the storm along the coast while the GFS has a benchmark track.

    Either way the mountains of northern VT, NH, and ME look to get their first decent snow event of the season. If this storm were in January, we’d be looking at a nice snowstorm as well, at least with the GFS track.

    1. If this next storm produces, we should have a decent shot at an above normal rainfall month for October in much of the region, which would be the first in several months. Not a drought buster, but at least a “denter”

  9. For those who didn’t see it at the end of the last blog, here is the 00z GFS for 10/27 showing us getting crushed by a “Snowicane”

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2020101400&fh=312&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    6z GFS still has the storm but farther off shore.

    This last few runs of the GFS have been showing this hurricane developing in the same general area as Sandy and taking a similar south to north track, just offshore of the East Coast.

    That would be interesting, though I’m sure it will be gone entirely in future runs.

    1. I’d give anything to see that materialize. That would make
      headlines! Of course, it is NEVER going to happen.

      1. As would I, although as depicted that storm would do some serious damage to coastal areas. Odds are remote however the general idea of a tropical system forming in that area of the southern Caribbean this time of year and heading north is not out of the question.

  10. Thanks TK. 3.07 according to my rain gauge this morning. It might need to be calibrated though. Although I did see a total of 2.40 for Worcester and 2.61 for West Boylston from the NWS.

  12. 1.50 in Logan’s bucket. The first true “all day” rain event in some time. Maybe since early spring?

    According to Eric, an additional widespread 1-3” for the late Friday/early Saturday event. I suspect we will see more beneficial precipitation events the remainder of the fall season. Just a gut feeling on my part, of course.

  13. I just heard somebody say that tomorrow’s drought monitor should look a lot better because of yesterday’s rain event.

    The problem with that is, the cutoff is 12z Tuesday. Most of yesterday’s rain does not get considered. Oops. This week’s drought monitor will be about the same or a little worse. Between the event we just had and the event coming there will be a slight improvement on next week’s monitor. After that we should trim back to the worse again.

    1. Can also see where the high humidity has been suppressed to south-central Georgia, southward and another small area along the Texas coastline. I think the daytime cumulus give a pretty good representation of where the very high dewpoints are.

      1. Still overdone. And this last event is not going to sway my opinion. This last one was a fluke. A nice fluke, but a fluke. Still, a lot of that rain just ran-off (again).

  17. I know the EURO has been struggling, but I´m still going to comment on its previous few runs.

    In its long term outlook, days 7 thru 10, its been projecting a deep trof in the west central US and a strong ridge along the east coast.

    At the surface, it develops a sfc low pressure area off the SE US coast. Given the location to the Gulf Stream, airmass it would be located within, I wonder if this could be a developing cold core low at first that would have a chance to transition to a hybrid, somewhat warm core system.

    I do understand that the EURO has been way overamplified and as things move into the short term on the EURO, only then does it correct on the over amplification.

  18. Non-weather:
    Driving home from Reading today, moving along at the speed limit with open road ahead of me except one car turning left but not enough to slow me down, a person was waiting at a stop sign to take a left onto the road I was on. Obviously, with he at a stop sign and me with open road ahead and at speed limit, you’d think I should just cruise along and he’d turn out after I passed. I did cruise along, but did he ever get ANGRY that I didn’t stop to let him out first. My goodness. He floored his piece of crap car so badly I’m surprised he didn’t blow his engine (and yes, the car was a piece of crap, but still probably much nicer than his brain activity). He hit a manhole cover which caused him to start fishtailing a bit and almost hit an oncoming car head on, finally swerving into the lane behind me, and obviously trying to catch up to me so he could exercise the road rage option on me, and as I finally slowed to take a left ahead, he went by, slowing down, on my right to say whatever it was he had to say. I don’t tend to listen to angry bullshit from people like that. Instead I just waved and smiled like I knew him. I totally love curve balls like that. I win again. 🙂 Have a nice day hot head. 😉

    2. You were lucky that waving and smiling didn’t get him even more angry but I guess it actually stunned him for a few seconds. Good one! 🙂

      1. If he came after me, his car probably wouldn’t have been able to make it up the hill I had to drive up. 😉

        I’ve blown a lot of kisses and waved a lot of hellos over the years. I never flip the bird. I never swear. I never sneer. Never.

        One time I had a guy (and his very embarrassed gf) pull up next to me at a light and ask me if I wanted to fight (she was pissed at him), and I said “hey! It’s great to see you! I haven’t seen you for a while! How are you doing??” And then the light turned green and I went ahead, while he sat there scratching his head, and probably getting dumped. 😉

        1. Well played, TK. I usually say a quick prayer for that type of driver. It’s usually nothing that I did. There are probably more issues going than with that person than what I did or didn’t do behind the wheel.

          1. I don’t drive any more, but in my younger days, my parents would tell me not to even look in their direction, just ignore that person. Obviously you do the complete opposite TK! Whatever works for you! 😀

            Just curious, do you have a Plan ‘B’ just in case? 😉

  19. TK – How much rain for the late Friday-early Saturday event?

    Yesterday Eric thought 1-3” but I get the impression now that he’s already changed his mind to lower amounts.

      1. We won’t really know that until we get to mid November, and even then there will be a lot of questions, since it’s a long range forecast.

        A blend of two models going out a few months in advance is about 50/50, or basically a coin flip, at best.

  23. Thank you, TK.

    I’m sorry about what you had to endure on the road. I admire your ability to stay calm. I kind of freak out and turn into JP Dave when the GFS produces a dud forecast: &%$#@%^$@%$!!!

    I’ve noticed lots of the following since March: Aggression on the roads. Rage even. Lots of very loud cars (even expensive ones; since when did Audis and Mercedes Benzes sound like hot rods?), and a tremendous amount of motorcycles with ear-busting engines. A Covid phenomenon. Maybe because people can’t do what they normally do.

  24. This evening, Harvey showed a model with 1.4 for Boston. Most areas with 1-inch+ amounts, if not close to 2.

    Me thinks (fwiw) this next system will overproduce as well, TK! 😉

    1. Yeah. We’ll see.

      The last one has nothing to do with the next one. 🙂

      I’m going with under-production.

  25. PSA: Snow in the White Mountains in October is NOT A BIG DEAL. It happens. It’s normal. Not abnormal.

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