Thursday October 15 2020 Forecast (7:03AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Discussion…

A strengthening southwesterly air flow will make today warmer than yesterday, but the trade-off will be the gusty wind that develops. This is taking place ahead of a cold front that will amble its way west to east across the region very slowly during Friday. The daylight hours of Friday will see only limited shower activity with the this front. It will be later Friday night and early Saturday when we stand our greatest chance to get a slug of rainfall as a wave of low pressure that forms on the front moves rapidly north northeastward across the region. This will be a lesser version of Tuesday’s event. While the set-up is somewhat similar, the scope is much smaller and the translation of the mechanism to produce the heavier rainfall is much faster. While the rain will be somewhat beneficial again in the short term, keeping fire danger in check, for example, it won’t be of great help in ending the drought, especially since we don’t really have any good follow-up rains in the pipeline. Anyway, once we get rid of that rain on Saturday we’ll have clearing and a brief cool shot, setting up a chilly start to Sunday but a nice finish to the weekend. Looking ahead to the start of next week, Monday looks fairly mild. For now I’m leaning dry but the next frontal system could threaten to bring a chance of showers if it moves toward the region a little more quickly than expected.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-61. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Numerous rain showers. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with a period of rain morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Temperatures steady 55-62 morning, falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog forming overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing to under 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Cold front crosses the region with a rain shower risk during October 20. Generally fair and slightly cooler October 21 then milder October 22-23. Keeping an eye out for a potential storm south of the region October 24, but far too early to say with confidence that it will happen and bring any rainfall to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)

Watch for an ocean storm south of New England during the first part of this period, and potentially another one offshore later in the period as well. Continued low confidence in the occurrence and placement of systems. Temperatures should be trending near to below normal.

54 thoughts on “Thursday October 15 2020 Forecast (7:03AM)”

  2. Thanks, TK…
    Good morning, everyone…

    Very pretty right now. Beautiful colors on the trees with a thin veil of fog! 🙂

    Remote Thursday, teaching the Spanish past tense from my dining room!!!

      1. Text read as follows:

        Farther north, elevated storms may occur on an isolated basis across parts of southern New England in a low-level warm advection regime.

        1. Thus TK’s wording of: FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Numerous rain showers. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Here’s a look at NOAA’s winter outlook released this morning:

    https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina

    Nothing too surprising in there, a pretty typical La Nina outlook. No really strong signals for the Northeast, but likely to be warm across the South and dry in the West.

    Funny how, at least on the models, the last few days of October tend to be a magnet for big storms. To be fair, a few of those have panned out in years past, and it does look like we’ll have to watch that period (~10/25-10/31) pretty closely again this year.

    2. Not many surprises in there and generally consistent with the other early winter weather outlooks I have seen, some of which I have been posting here. It’s a basic text book La Nina map. I think in the borderline or “battlezone” areas like the Northeast, we are going to need to wait until some of the other indices become clearer before we get a better idea on our impacts.

      One thing that was somewhat encouraging is that their drought map has us in the “improving” zone.

  9. WxW: I am still in the rookie leagues (and will always be 🙂 )and you are on the all-star first team! 🙂 But, like you,I have noticed a powerful storm with each model run around around 25 October. I know we have to take the models with a grain of salt, but a coastal storm is there each day.

    Can you tell me what’s going on here?
    There looks like a double low is forming.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020101506&fh=12

    What’s going on here? Looks ominous!

        1. 🙂

          The “easy” answer would be that the model (the GFS) is very confused. But basically, what it’s attempting to show is a big trough over the Great Lakes “capturing” and phasing with a tropical cyclone coming out of the Caribbean, creating a major storm system.

          It’s not impossible for this to happen, as Sandy showed in 2012. However, it’s very difficult, and it’s a common model bias to want to make it happen even though the odds are low. So yes, it looks ominous, but it would look a lot more ominous at day 3 than at day 12 😉

  10. Hopefully next week’s Drought Monitor map will have mere “yellows” (Abnormally Dry) on it and no more deep oranges, browns or reds. 🙂

    Maybe by year’s end a nice spotless map? We will see.

  11. Captain, the TT site has been terrible the last several months. I haven’t even been able to get on it most of the time. I have been using Pivotal Weather. But I know what you are talking about and I have been posting/commenting on a few of those fantasy GFS storm maps the last week of October.

    One thing I will give the GFS is that it has been fairly consistent showing a deep trough in the East toward the end of the month, a tropical system coming north out of the Caribbean, and a significant coastal/ocean storm near the Northeast with interior snows.

    In fact the 6z GFS had two coastal storms, bringing early season snows to many interior areas.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2020101506&fh=276&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2020101506&fh=372&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

  12. 12z GFS with a much more benign (realistic?) outcome. Just a strong frontal passage for us which shunts the tropical system out to sea. Still a very cold, early winter like look in its wake.

    I’m Ok with that solution. For whatever reason, early season October snow events tend to be the kiss of death for the rest of the winter!

    1. Yes, that was my take away from the 12Z run. Looks like a trend
      to cooler/colder weather towards the end of the month.

      Curious to see what the Euro has to say, although that only goes out 10 days, but it should show something towards the end
      of the run.

        1. Interesting that the summit is only some 6800 feet, but
          far enough North such that is all that is needed.

      2. Sometimes I wonder if he’s the secret author of the Farmer’s Almanac from Maine. 😉

        Nearly the same forecast every year. 😉 Actually, it’s more a wish-cast. You can tell by how it’s written. It’s written from the perspective of a total snow-lover, and that’s fine, but just be up front about it. 🙂

        I write my long range forecasts from the perspective of a weather forecaster. That’s how they should be done, in my opinion, but if you want to do it from another perspective, just make sure your readers and/or listeners know what you’re doing. That’s an obligation, unspoken, but important.

          1. It’s been a really, REALLY long week (month) at work. That’s when my wise-ass side really comes out. 😛

            On the plus side, I just got a COVID 19 test result back, and for the 4th time I’m negative.

            1. Glad to hear you are 4 for 4 with negative results ! Hope a long weekend or some time off from work is coming soon.

      3. There is nothing there besides for out to 30 days and pointing out different parameters, I do not see a winter forecast/Prediction.

      4. There is nothing there besides for out to 30 days and pointing out different parameters, I do not see a winter forecast/Prediction.

        1. I know. But I was referring to past writings.
          Don’t get me wrong. I totally respect the guy. 🙂
          He makes no secret that he wants the big snow. 😉
          It’s all good. I’m interested to see what he forecasts when he gets into that in the next few weeks.

          1. I would be curious if Dr. Cohen actually had a mild winter with below normal snowfall in his 2014-15 outlook. 😉

            LOL? 😀

  15. WxW thanks for your comments today. Agree with pretty much everything. As far as the winter forecast – I prefer to wait a bit longer, but some of the pieces are very much in place already. 🙂

    1. Yep, La Nina can definitely be baked in at this point but we should get some more clues over the next 30-45 days.

  16. WxWatcher, one more thing if you’re still out there today…

    NAM vs. RGEM for this upcoming event. I know you mentioned liking the RGEM quite a bit. I generally like it myself. It’s advertising somewhat less rainfall than the NAM. What are your thoughts on these forecasts?

    1. I’ve been thinking about that myself. I think it’s actually a pretty tough QPF forecast (though would be more stressful if it was snow 😉 ). I’m a little concerned a secondary wave of low pressure will form on that front tomorrow night and lead to some steadier/heavier rain especially towards the coast, with maybe a shadow region west of there that’s too far west for that rain shield to reach but east of the initial round tomorrow. Pretty good jet dynamics with this one. I think the NAM is probably overdone overall but may actually favor it a little bit. I think most places come in 0.75-1.25, but wouldn’t be too surprised to see a 1.5-2” stripe towards the coast, and maybe some areas under 0.75 especially towards the CT Valley.

      Agree with you, it looks dry at least for awhile after this one, though late month could be interesting. And I suspect that even though we’re getting a few rain events this month, we may turn back to mostly dry by next….

      1. Excellent. No argument from me on any of that.

        I have this inkling about something south of us later this month (1 or 2 times).

      1. Not necessarily. The overall pattern. You have to remember, the “threats” are just speculatory based on the interpretation of the overall pattern. WxW noted above that he feels “something” could happen later this month, as do I (if you read my discussion I allude to something to watch around the 24th-25th and again after that). But important to keep in mind you can’t look at something like that and say “wow look at the heavy rain event we’re gonna get!” .. As a met, I know that we could get anything from a drenching event with flooding to bone dry nothingness. We’ll just have to eye the pattern & the trends as we get closer to that time frame. But it’s definitely recognizable that there are things that exist in the overall pattern that could create a larger scale threat, and by “threat” I don’t necessarily mean something all bad. We’d have to see what the details are if/when that happens. It wouldn’t be good practice in general for me to say “yes” or “no” either or both of those potentials that I noted, but if I had to, I’d side drier, based on the overall pattern, and the belief that I think this 1-2 punch right now is somewhat of a fluke in the overall pattern.

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