Friday October 16 2020 Forecast (7:27AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Discussion…

The second of a one-two rainfall punch this week occurs tonight and early Saturday as a cold front traipsing west to east across the region serves as an avenue for a wave of low pressure which will move swiftly northward along it. Behind this comes a brief shot of chilly air later Saturday as it dries out, but along with some wind as the low organizes while pulling away and high pressure builds toward the region. This high’s center will be close enough by Saturday night and early Sunday to drop the wind off and set up some good radiational cooling, so Sunday morning will be a day that starts cold but ends milder as the high center moves offshore and turns the wind southwest. This milder trend will continue into the start of next week as high pressure will be off the Atlantic Coast with a southerly wind here, and the next cold front approaching from the west will likely run out of gas as there is not much of a push to get it all the way to and beyond the coast.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N from west to east into the I-95 belt by late.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Numerous rain showers, some of them heavy. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with a period of rain morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Temperatures steady 55-62 morning, falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog forming overnight. Lows 35-40 except 40-45 urban areas. Wind W 10-20 MPH early, diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 48-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)

A mild southerly air flow and a minimal chance for any rain showers October 21-22 as a couple frontal systems try and likely fail to make it through the region. A stronger front approaches mid period and may bring rain showers and finally a shot of much cooler air for later in the period. Meanwhile, watch for low pressure to organize south of the region by the October 24-25 weekend. Too early to tell if it will bring any rainfall here.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)

There is the potential for a second ocean storm (possibly born in the tropics at first) most likely passing east of the region but serving to bring down some colder air from Canada. A system from the west may bring some precipitation to the region around the middle of the period. Many pieces to the puzzle yet to fit together as we get closer to the home stretch of October.

48 thoughts on “Friday October 16 2020 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    guidance is all over the place tegarding tain tonight. Nam and hrrr most robust with both
    being a bit over 2vinches.

    Are you still leaning low as in .25 to .75?

    Thanks

  3. Was looking at the GFS. Some interesting features and once
    again for the umpteenth time, it shows a storm with tropical
    origins coming very close to our area with it fringing us
    on the latest run. Then followed up by a system that brings
    SNOW to NY State, most of VT and FAR Western MA. Some images:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_47.png

  4. Thanks Tk I was bummed we had rain move in here in pembroke either overnight / or this morning . I had wood delivered last night that I was going to finish stacking today before the rain now it’s wet . And light rain this morning forced my windshield replacement to hopefully later as there was just enough rain when they were here where it could not get done .

  5. Thanks TK !

    I like the feel of summer (low 60F dewpoints). Its funny how we must acclimate quickly to the current season´s feel. We have had many cool, comfortable nights lately ….. well, in the middle of the night last night, I woke up and was like, wow, its really warm.

    1. Yeah I had A/ C on last night ( go ahead laugh at me . I’ll probably leave in the window the rest of the month .

  7. GFS keeps toying with a followup coastal storm around Halloween that would be more white than wet across interior areas.

    Shades of 2012 where we had Sandy around 10/30 and then a followup coastal snowstorm around 11/5…..

  10. New England is over due for a Hurricane… GFS operational could happen but not that strong…. It has ensemble support and also has long term EPS ensemble support as well. The overall pattern seems to support a scenario of a tropical system moving up some where in the Western Atlantic.

  11. There’s one problem with the alleged hurricane that’s depicted. It would not be a tropical system.

    More info to come…

  12. We drove to Old Silver Beach in Falmouth. It still mild and humid here, Buzzards Bay is milder than the ocean and we are kicking ourselves for not bringing swim wear. A few other people in the water.

    1. That’s actually the ordinary cold core storm that I’ve been talking about for a few days.

        1. I think our weather pattern after October 24 leaves the area open to the first flakes of snow before the month ends, but it’ll be a bit of a stretch. Probably something more like a cold advection rain & snow shower type event versus a 2011 type system.

  15. I hadn’t looked myself yet but colleague just pointed out to me the GFS ensemble members for the system the op run has later this month are all over the place, ranging from 958 to 1001mb and ranging from near Belize to south of NYC. 😉 Anyone wanna try to narrow it down from there? 😉

    So a little more info to apply to the GFS op’s depictions and just in general…

    It’s very very rare to have a tropical (warm core) system north of 38N lat and west of 65W longitude this late in the season. Look at the water temps, for one thing. That entire area is FAR too cool to support warm core activity.

    From a colleague, here’ s a list of Tropical Storms and/or Hurricanes that have passed within 250 miles of Massachusetts later than October 20…

    Unnamed storm #1 in 1879
    Unnamed storm #2 also in 1879 but this one is marginal as it was, as far as we know, extratropical about 250 miles offshore.
    Ginny 1963
    Perfect Storm 1991 (extratropical initially, absorbed Hurricane Grace, eventually moved over warm enough water to transition to warm core and was named Henri).
    Sandy 2012, which was also extratropical before landfall, a fact that seems to be lost on a lot of people. In fact, Sandy was the only one that got close to the coast, with the others staying generally well offshore. That’s only 5 systems in 170 years.

    Even if the operational GFS were to be right, that’s not a hurricane we’ll be dealing with. It would be a cold core low pressure area, regardless of its origin.

  16. Whether it is a hurricane, hybrid, or extra tropical system by the time it were to get up here is almost a moot point. A system that potent as depicted with a larger circulation and expanded wind field would do some serious damage.

    2. Or somewhat typical of a warm humid air mass ahead of a cold front with a good moisture feed. 🙂 I love days like this in the autumn actually.

    1. Saturday afternoon will be generally fine for outdoor activities. Keep in mind that if your activities include being on grassy surfaces, that it will still be wet for a while until we can clear things out and get the wind going a bit. After that happens it should dry off fairly quickly. Wear a jacket! It’ll be on the cool side!

  19. So that info above is quite important to keep in mind going forward. The model performance is likely going to suffer significantly until we are completely beyond the pandemic. One of my aims on the weather blog here is to make sure things are understood as well as possible. That’s why I encourage questions as well. 🙂

    BTW, a little tidbit for photographers that might be reading. If you like to get early morning fog-on-the-water photos, Sunday morning at dawn may be your time. I’m hoping we drop the wind off enough for really good radiational cooling. We should.

    1. Sea smoke!! Next to petrichor it’s got to be one my favorite weather events.

      Someone once took a great photo of sea smoke off of Swampscott, with amazing morning light and a few fishing vessels. Can’t locate it quickly but it was a stunner.

      TK, is this correct: you need some frigid morning air when the water temps are still up there. And it only happens without precipitation? Seems like it’s always super clear and super cold.

      1. In general that is how it works. But when the air is cold enough, as long as the difference is great enough you’ll get it.

        There was some great sea smoke on Feb 14 2016 during that one-day frigid shot.

  20. Hmmmm….
    Only about a 1000 mile difference between the 12z & 18z GFS operational runs for Oct 27 regarding the position of the whateveracane. Maybe Belize isn’t out of the woods yet after all. 😉

    Yet another example of why models beyond day 4 are basically useless right now. They are almost as outrageous as my notebook drawings in 9th grade of those 300 inch winters. 😉

  21. Yucatan Peninsula anyone???

    Wow, now I expected the 18z operational run to be much different than the 12z regarding that low pressure area, but never in my wildest that I expect to see that. Now I can’t wait for the 00z. 😉

      1. It’s got a pretty bad case then. Next run, same time frame, east of Florida. Next run, same time frame, near Bermuda.

        This model (and others) just keep making my point for me over and over and over. 😉

  22. Professor TK:

    The models are way underperforming because of the pandemic. Refresh my memory, please. Is it the lack of aviation data going into the master computers, therefore, the initial weather info of the run is incomplete?

    Am I close?

    2. Not “incomplete” since everything that is available is used, but it’s “deficient”. This will probably go on for a while yet…

  23. Some flakes & even a brief small slushy accumulation this morning in higher elevations of N Central MA and SW NH.

    New weather post!

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