Saturday October 17 2020 Forecast (7:49AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Discussion…

Today will be one of those days that looks very different at its conclusion than it does at its beginning. Our second significant rainfall in several days will be coming to a quick end this morning and dry air will return to the region during midday and afternoon, along with a brief shot of wind, bringing in some chilly air. In fact, before the end of the rainfall, some snow has already been mixed in and may continue for a very brief time over highest elevations well northwest of Boston. The wind will drop off quickly tonight as high pressure, centered to the south, noses overhead. This sets up a cold night and beginning to Sunday, but the the high center moving to the east, a milder southwesterly wind flow will take over and the temperature recovery on Sunday will be significant, easily the pick of this weekend. Entering early next week, a mild southerly air flow will be dominant, and a frontal boundary will make 2 failed attempts to get through here as the offshore high pressure system is too strong and the upper level pattern is not set-up in such a way to make it happen.

Details…

TODAY: Overcast with rain (even brief mixed rain/snow higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH), ending quickly by mid to late morning. Becoming partly to mostly sunny midday through afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog forming overnight. Lows 32-39 except 40-45 urban areas. Wind W 10-20 MPH early, diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 48-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)

A mild southerly air flow will continue October 22 into October 23 before a stronger cold front from the west puts an end to that with a risk of passing rain showers later October 23. A much cooler period October 24-26. Watching for a low pressure area from the south to bring a rain threat as early as late October 24 but more likely October 25 before it clears out at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)

There is the potential for a second ocean storm (possibly born in the tropics at first) most likely passing east of the region but serving to bring down some colder air from Canada. A system from the west may bring some precipitation to the region early in the period (October 27-28). Temperature recovery is possible by the end of the period after the initial push of cold.

63 thoughts on “Saturday October 17 2020 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK
    2.30 inches in the bucket this morning.
    We shall how Logan did.
    The Whites of NH are white this AM .

    1. So April & October will be our only 2 wetter than average months through 10 for 2020. I’m willing to bet we’re back to below normal for November, but December? We’ll see…

  5. Latest I can gather from Logan is 1.93 inches.

    Blue Hill 2.22 inches

    Mt. Washington has had At least 1.32 inches melted as SNOW.

    1. That next Drought Monitor map should be nothing but yellow (Abnormally Dry) if not clear in most areas. Hope so. 🙂

      1. There will still be a lot of severe drought in it.
        2 solid events won’t end a 9 to 12 inch rainfall deficit drought. And the prospects going forward are not good, which is no surprise.

  6. Thanks TK. I was surprised to see the rain move in to Boston yesterday as early in the afternoon as it did. I thought it might have been closer to the typical commute timeframe (after 3:00 pm).

    First 7:00 am sunrise today…and getting later every day until further notice. Morning darkness now well entrenched. 🙁

    1. Love it! More sunrise photos for me! 😀 😀 😀 😀 I already have plans for tomorrow morning’s!

  7. Thanks TK.

    Morning thoughts – another very solid rain event, widespread 1-2″ with a few higher amounts.

    The pattern going forward looks drier by the day though. Little to no rain is a certainty the next 7 days, and the late month threats are showing signs of fading…. we’ve made a little progress and bought some time on the drought, but we need a couple more follow up events to put a bigger dent in it, and that’s not looking too likely at the moment.

  9. I’m probably too lazy to take the time to do this, but I’d love to see a slide show of all the GFS forecasts for 00z OCT 28 over several days to compare the position of that low center. A couple of colleagues and I have been enjoying the comedy that these runs have given us over the last several days while watching people on social media freak out about “snow-a-canes” and other things that are not going to happen. Ah well. 🙂 Amusement for us at least!

  10. Frost Advisory for tonight literally surrounding the city of Boston. The typical 128 belt.

    Just a matter of time for Logan to get it next. Average: Nov. 9th?

    Maybe towards end of month this year TK?

    1. We’ll have to see what the magnitude of the potential cold shot is. The general trend leaves the door open for the city to get their first solid frost somewhere in the last 5 or 6 days of the month. But after a chilly Sunday morning, it won’t feel much like that for several days as we get a nice mild interlude for a handful of days.

  11. NWS Boston confirmed an EF-0 tornado near Millis from the October 7 derecho event. It’s common for usually brief tornadoes to occur along the leading edge of derechos and severe squall lines, and (speaking from experience) it is often difficult to differentiate straight line versus tornadic winds in those cases.

    https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202010171423-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

    In this particular case, the radar likely played a big part in aiding the confirmation. If you’re familiar with identifying tornado debris on radar, you can see a debris signature in this image, just north of where I placed the red square marker.

    https://imgur.com/B3TyDZf

    1. Thanks! I had been wondering about that having seen a few areas of rotation embedded in that. And I remember on the much larger scale event in IA (and into IL) of a few tornado warnings being issued from spin mainly on the northern sides of bowed segments. And of course we’ve seen them with some other derecho events, and even just ordinary squall lines in some cases.

    2. Thank you. Having grown up in Millis I could easily visualize the exact path as described. Awesome information and thanks again.

  12. Thanks TK !

    On Mt Washington page, current summit conditions, as of now, summit reports 7 inches of new snow. Currently around 19F at the summit and 33F at the base and below freezing all the way down to 2,300 ft, so I don´t think its just a white capped mountain, but probably all white right down to the valley floor.

  13. For me, today would be nice for Veteran´s Day or Thanksgiving, but for mid October, too cold.

    Looking forward to the 60s next week.

  15. Anyone up for a little quiz/guessing game?

    Anyhow, care to guess where this mountain is located? And bonus points for its name.
    Pretty unfair question as you have the whole of Earth to consider, but There is some scenery that lend at least few clues
    to narrow down the geographic location.
    Additional clue: It is a very famous mountain.

    https://imgur.com/a/NT0XMLR

    1. I am always impressed with Google’s image search abilities. But that is cheating, so I will not give it away!

      1. But don’t you have to enter something to start?
        In tis case enter names of mountains until you find an image match.

        1. No, that is the magic – it is a search by image. I went to your photo, right-clicked and clicked on “copy image location.” Then in Google images I clicked the camera icon for “Search by image,” pasted in the copied image location and Bob’s your uncle!

        1. LOL …… I´m looking at the house and guessing its Europe or Asia, but I´m currently at a loss for other well known mountains in that area.

  16. This midday reminds me of one of those deliveries of polar or arctic air from Canada you get in the winter with that brief period of strong & gusty wind behind a departing low pressure system. Kind of like one of the first pre-season games. 😉

    In about 8 hours, it will be nearly calm.

    1. It’s brisk out here on the softball field this am. Was 39 when we left the house. Fortunately the sun still has some strength and is helping to offset the wind.

  17. Thanks TK.

    1.5” in the rain gauge this am in Coventry CT. 3.08” on the week and 3.13” on the month.

    Some decent snows this AM up in northern NH and western ME!

  20. JPDave – In case my response above got lost, I will copy it here:

    No, that is the magic – it is a search by image. I went to your photo, right-clicked and clicked on “copy image location.” Then in Google images I clicked the camera icon for “Search by image,” pasted in the copied image location and Bob’s your uncle!

    I find this very useful, and sometimes a lot of fun when the results are not quite right.

    1. Got it. Never knew about that search or that on IMGUR
      images and even gives you an option to google it. Pretty
      cool.

    1. I thought it was quite fitting. I see so much misinformation out there on the net. I’m not referring to the blog here. I know we have folks that like to follow the models run to run and see what they come up with, but they do it with the understanding that it probably doesn’t quite turn out that way, especially in the situation we are now with the model performance. But when you are the admin of a site and someone posts the run that shows a snow-hurricane and then people take it like it’s written in stone, that is something I am not going to stand by and just let happen without qualification / correction. I’ll use my knowledge exactly where it is most applicable, and that’s public education. It’s no different that somebody on an electricians page totally botching the description of how to do something and an electrician who knows their stuff well enough to explain it correctly having no real choice but to stop in and make the clarification. That could end up saving someone’s life. Weather (meteorology) is a science. When facts are available, they are going to be utilized. It’s the right way to do it. I firmly believe it. I stand by it. And that’s what I’ll always do. A great number of people misunderstand me when I do such things, but there isn’t much I can do about that. I’ll just keep doing what I do,l and I’ll do it to the best of my ability. 🙂

  24. For amusement purposes GFS Forecast for Oct 27 starting from This past Monday to Today’s depiction of the same hour. As usual for anything outside of day 7 never mind day 10.

  27. Good writeup from Ben Noll with an outlook for the 2020-2021 Winter. The discussion is tailored towards the lower Hudson Valley but is applicable to SNE as well.

    https://bennollweather.substack.com/p/hudson-valley-2020-21-winter-outlook?r=6mogw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

    He discusses only the long range models and analog years. The UKMET/Euro model blend, which performed well last year, predicts a winter of above normal temps and below normal snow as has been posted on this blog recently. However a blend of analog years is more promising for snow totals.

    It’s a long writeup but cutting to the chase, his analysis would yield snow totals more than last season but slightly less than average.

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