Monday October 19 2020 Forecast (7:34AM)

23 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Discussion…

First, I must note today that there will be some King Tide coastal flooding from midday to mid afternoon with one of the highest natural tides of the year. Thankfully, this is occurring without a wave-enhancing storm in the area or somewhere in the western Atlantic, or it would have been more extensive. Weatherwise, the next 5 days are pretty simple to summarize. High pressure will be anchored offshore, and we’ll be in a mild air mass across southeastern New England. A frontal boundary sitting off to our northwest will make several failed attempts to get into the region, producing only varying amounts of cloudiness and a couple minor rain shower threats as small and weak waves of low pressure ripple along the boundary, none of them strong enough to battle the high pressure enough to make it give way. This also means we’re back to a weather pattern that grows a drought instead of reducing it, rendering last week’s helpful events less important with no real follow-ups to keep that momentum going.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine filtered through high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 48-55. Wind SE-S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a passing rain shower late-day. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a rain shower at any time. Lows 51-58. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a rain shower in the morning. Highs 65-72. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming in low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: More sun than clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: More clouds than sun. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Not too suprisingly, our medium range guidance for this period of time now looks quite a bit different than it did a few days ago, hence my caveats about low confidence forecasts and the need for adjustments and fine-tuning. A good lesson to never take medium and longer range outlooks too seriously and anything more than just a best-guess at the time. That’s forecasting! So making a few adjustments with the idea that the entire pattern evolution takes place more slowly leads me to this current idea… Stronger cold front arrives later October 24 with a rain shower risk. Potential wave of low pressure from the south rides along that front and may bring some wet weather into early October 25 before a push of cool/dry air follows it, then with high pressure to the north we get into a more easterly air flow which then turns more southerly allowing for a bit of a warm-up later in the period before another front approaches from the west with the next chance of unsettled weather. No major rain events likely.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

It goes without saying (but I’ll say it anyway) that this period is low confidence because of the adjustments that were needed in the period before it. The pattern going forward reminds me of one we’ve been in a lot. High pressure in control most of the time, below normal rainfall, variable temperatures. Obviously, much fine-tuning will be needed to determine the day-to-day weather as we get closer to the end of October & start of November.

23 thoughts on “Monday October 19 2020 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So in other words a stretch of BORING weather. Yes, I know, no weather is boring to you, but it surely is to me. 🙂

    1. Didn’t help much last year, did it? I am expecting the worse
      case scenario for this Winter, but hoping to be pleasantly
      surprised.

    2. I do not follow him that much anymore as I once did . I would email him all kinds of questions and he would always reply . I once made a strong push trying to get him to post here .

      1. He seems like a very pleasant guy. I have emailed him before and he has responded. I enjoy reading his blog, but at times
        it gets a bit ambiguous which lends to confusion as to exactly what he is saying or what he means.

        I wish he would just come out and say what he thinks
        will happen. Period. Without all of the various caveats he
        always seems to throw in there.

          1. Afaic I am going into this upcoming winter expecting well below normal snowfall. I am beginning to wonder now with obvious climate change if those old fashioned winters with cold & snow are pretty much going to be a relic of the past along with VHS tapes, etc.

            Winter 2015…the last of the dinosaurs, so to speak?? 🙁

            2. We’ve had more “big” winters in the last 30 years than any 30 year period on record before that. 😉

              Maybe our expectations are too high.

              1. How are you categorizing big winters. The long term steady cold with snowy periods are not as common. The reason for the increased snowfall these past 30 years is because of the abnormally warm NW Atlantic and short arctic blasts lining up just right.

  8. “I start each and every day with a snow dance. I am trying my best!”

    -Dr. J. Cohen.

    Teehee! 😉

      1. I really do admire the guy. I’m glad he’s honest about whatever he says. 🙂

        I find myself not always agreeing with his meteorological assessments, but that’s just part of the science. Tremendous respect for him.

          1. It’s a good correlation. It works quite often at helping to predict, but there are some times when it does not. It would be good to figure out what triggers it not to work.

Comments are closed.