Tuesday October 20 2020 Forecast (6:49AM)

26 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Discussion…

We’re having a mild time! This pattern is stuck in place for several more days, basically for this entire 5-day period with high pressure retrograding southwestward from the Canadian Maritimes to the US Mid Atlantic States and a frontal boundary held at bay to the northwest of our area, only close enough to cause a lot of cloudiness and a window of opportunity for rain showers today through early Wednesday, and possibly again by later Saturday as a stronger low pressure area finally makes its way north of our area.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. A few heavier showers and thunderstorms possible RI and southeastern MA. Highs 65-72. Dew point rising to the lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Areas of fog that may become dense with very low visibility in some locations. Lows 53-60. Dewpoint matching temperature in most locations. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog/drizzle & a few rain showers. Partial sunshine midday-afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind near calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear but patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. A passing rain shower possible evening or night. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

I’m a little conflicted about how things play out during this 5-day period. Temperatures will be considerably cooler on October 25 but whether we have clearing or some lingering wet weather remains in question at this point. A frontal boundary may linger near the region with some unsettled weather into early next week before a stronger front from the west arrives later in the period with a push of colder air arriving. Still many details to work out.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

A shot of colder air to end October with a few rain & snow showers possible, otherwise mostly dry weather. Fair with a moderating trend following that.

26 thoughts on “Tuesday October 20 2020 Forecast (6:49AM)”

  7. I hope this afternoon’s rain just misses the city of Boston to the south. I didn’t bring an umbrella to work since the tv mets have the rain “south of the Pike”.

    Matt Noyes on NBC-10 has cool & wet for next week. I wish the other stations would adopt 10-day forecasts.

    2. I like just one 10 day. It’s cool to see, but there is far far too much focus on specifics that can’t be specified that far in advance through the practical use of meteorology.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Of all years this could have been the one in which we’d get rid of the obsolete changes in time (fall back; spring forward). I think that having more daylight in the late afternoon would help restaurants (outdoor dining) and other small businesses for that matter.

    1. You can change clocks but not the climate. Winter’s cold still arrives eventually, and around here especially, well throughout early spring.

      1. This is why I never complain. The sun angle & weather / climate were here before us. We’re at its mercy. The best thing to do is adjust to it. And that’s why, for example, taking advantage of those lights that are available for those with S.A.D.D. are an excellent thing to have available. Thankfully I do not suffer from that but I fully sympathize with those who do.

        Still, we can’t do anything about what’s natural. Animals are adaptive. We need to rely on that side of ourselves as well. 🙂

    2. But then people would complain more about the morning. May as well just leave it where it is. 😉

  11. There should be quite a bit of fog settling in soon. A lot of the area may wake up to very low visibility tomorrow.

  12. WxWatcher… Today’s 18z operational GFS is showing a little bit of what you’ve brought up as a possible clue to the winter pattern. We’re now into that period of time (mid Oct to mid Nov) where I believe the weather pattern holds some moderate to strong clues about what can happen this coming winter. You can see some cold trying to punch out of Canada but at the same time that Southeast ridge wanting to be fairly dominant. Just the idea of that pattern there is something I think we have a shot at seeing at least for the first half of the winter. Do you have any further thoughts on this since you last commented on it?

    1. I agree, I think what it’s showing through about days 10-12 is a pretty reasonable approximation of what we’ll see a lot this winter. We know the Southeast ridge is gonna be a frequent presence with La Nina, but occasionally those Canadian troughs and cold shots will knock it out of position. I think a lot of the snow chances for SNE will come on “follow-up waves” behind frontal passages (not unlike the system the other day), and occasional snow/ice threats on the front end of storms with cold air retreating. But I think there will be a lot of events that are messy or more wet than white as the prevailing storm track remains west of us, on the edge of the SE ridge.

      As to the 18z GFS, it’s also showing near to above normal precip on this run. I don’t think it’s going to be an especially wet winter, but I do think we’ll gradually start to eat away at the drought over winter. Maybe not yet though, I still favor drier than normal, though not totally dry, at least for the next few weeks.

      Looking forward to seeing your full take on winter in a few weeks!

        1. There certainly won’t be many snowflakes within that puzzle. That darn SE ridge will take up 95-99% of it. 🙁

          Third year in a row of below normal snowfall for Logan. And probably “well” below at that.

          1. That’s not a certainty at all. A Southeast ridge does not automatically equate to below normal snowfall in SNE. 😉

            Consider this fact: The last 2 La Nina episodes, which had a fair amount of “Southeast ridge”, featured snowfall totals of 80+ and 60+ inches for Logan. That’s definitely not a “certainty” on below average snowfall now, is it? 😉

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