DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Discussion…

We have plenty of low level moisture for fog & drizzle around the region to start the day today, but not enough lift ahead of a cold front to produce any meaningful showers. That front will get right into the region and may even get all the way through the area by tonight and Thursday, creating a wind shift and putting the area into a different-feeling air mass, in terms of lower humidity, although it will still be mild. A bubble of high pressure moves north of the area on Friday with a light but easterly air flow for the area making it a touch cooler than Thursday, and then Saturday we’re back in a southerly air flow ahead of a cold front. The timing of this front is a little uncertain, with some guidance in recent runs indicating a little faster approach and passage, but with no significant shower activity, as the area will be under the drying influence of air surrounding Hurricane Epsilon which will be passing well southeast of New England this weekend. What that hurricane will do, as others have, is stir up the seas so we’ll have some larger swells and rough surf impacting the coastline during the weekend. Yesterday I was a little concerned about the front Saturday slowing down and being an avenue for additional moisture and a chance of some rainfall for Sunday, but right now it looks like high pressure will have enough push to give us a dry and cooler Sunday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle morning. Mostly cloudy but a few breaks of sun possible afternoon. Humid. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Humid. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Drier air. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. An afternoon shower possible in southern NH and northern MA. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a risk of a passing shower, then clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

More questions to be answered heading into the final days of October. High pressure centered north to east of the region early next week should turn winds from easterly to southerly with lots of cloudiness and some damp weather, although at this point I am not looking for any significant rainfall. Around October 28 a stronger front should move through with rain showers then a turn to chilly weather, at least briefly. Another disturbance may already be in the area by the end of the period, but medium range guidance varies vastly on the details of this system, so for now just going to lean toward a chance of unsettled weather to end this period and re-evaluate with new information.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Trends are for a shot of significantly chilly air to end October followed by a moderating trend but mostly dry weather into the early days of November.