Saturday October 24 2020 Forecast (8:53AM)

40 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Discussion…

After 2 recent significant rain events put a small dent in the ongoing drought, we’ve slipped back to old habits of longer stretches without significant rainfall, and despite some upcoming unsettled weather, the overall pattern will continue to support a sustained or even increased drought. But that doesn’t mean every day will be the same. We do have quite a few changes to talk about, most prominently a strong cold front that will make its way eastward across the region today. This front lacks support for much in the way of rain shower activity but otherwise has a sharpness to it, as it will introduce a new air mass in a rather abrupt way. Once it passes a given location, the temperature will waste no time starting to drop. Many locations that make a run at 70 today will find themselves in the 30s by Sunday morning, and the temperature recovery Sunday will be modest as a north to northeast wind feeds additional chilly air in via eastern Canada. Sunday will be a bright fall day through with plenty of sun and just passing clouds during the morning and into the afternoon, a good day for taking a ride to see the last of peak orange/red foliage color wave. We will already see an increase in high and mid level cloudiness later Sunday ahead of some unsettled weather early next week as a warm front moves through Monday and then a cold front moves very slowly across the region Tuesday, producing some episodes of rainfall, though much of it looks on the light side and not very helpful for our drought. High pressure should nose into the region by Wednesday with drier weather.

Details…

TODAY: Partial sun some areas early, lots of cloudiness otherwise with a passing rain shower possible, then some clearing from the west toward days’s end. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W west to east during the day, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain likely. Highs 52-59. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29- NOVEMBER 2)

Watching for another wave of low pressure from the south with potential unsettled weather October 29 into October 30 before dry and colder weather for the remainder of October 30 and October 31. Another risk of some wet weather around November 1 and a shot of colder air to follow.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Mostly dry weather for this period, temperatures start below normal then moderate to above normal.

40 thoughts on “Saturday October 24 2020 Forecast (8:53AM)”

  5. A little bonus sunshine near the eastern coastal areas can be at least partially attributed to subsidence on the outskirts of Epsilon.

  6. How do you guys think the winter will play out. I say warm (relative to norm) much below avg snow. Hope i am wrong though

    1. I’ll issue a winter forecast around November 20 because I firmly believe the pattern from mid Oct to mid Nov has a significant say in the pattern for the winter, at least giving some very good clues.

      Very early ideas, leaning dry, but not bone-dry. Snowfall can go either way. The last 2 La Nina winters produced above normal snowfall at Boston. Temperature, I’m conflicted. I want to go mild overall, but I think we may be surprised by how many cold shots lash the area. I’m very curious as to the pattern from here to Nov 20 for a clue on that.

      1. If that period is on the milder side overall, below normal snowfall.

        On the colder side, normal to above snowfall.

        Can’t get much plainer than that.

        One caveat: I have noticed more acorns on the ground, if that even matters.

        1. As a general rule over a long time period, that might be true.

          But, I´m thinking you can get a big snowstorm or 2 within an overall mild winter and have a really, really cold winter that is very dry. So, I think its possible to be above avg temps/above avg snowfall or below avg temps and below avg snowfall from time to time.

          1. Tom you are correct. It’s happened many times.
            We’ve had some mild and very snowy winters.
            1980-1981 was a COLD winter with virtually no snow.

        2. I’m going to repeat something I’ve said many, many, many times.

          Above normal temperatures DO NOT AUTOMATICALLY EQUATE to below normal snowfall, and vice versa.

          This has to be understood going forward. Weather forecasting is not that straightforward.

  8. Seems western and central Canada has a widespread, early season snow-cover, so I also think some of these cool shots coming in the mid range might be quite cold.

    I do wonder if some of the long range hints to a milder, zonal flow will hold or back off as that time period comes closer.

  11. Albany NY down to 52 as of 11AM, no doubt lower than that now. Air mass change inbound!

    Front should cross Boston, by my current estimate, between 4 and 5PM.

  12. TK, you’re a truly AMAZING forecaster.

    You read and interpret models so well, with a vast reservoir of meteorological knowledge in your head to tap into so that you’re not a model-hugger. Exhibit A: Unlike so many other mets I’ve seen and heard from recently, you’ve been correct about the overall trend which continues to have us in a serious drought.

    2. Thank you for those very kind words. I was just talking to my mom a short while ago about your articles. 🙂

  13. So another example of the models sucking in the medium range: You may recall about a week or so ago we were discussing one model run of some absolutely crushing storm crossing southeastern New England on October 27. The storm, which turned out to be Epsilon actually, passed east of Bermuda and on October 27 will be several hundred miles southwest of Iceland. This is why, while looking at these models is fun, we don’t really put any stock into their solutions beyond just a few days.

    #MeteorologyNotModelology

  15. TK – Can you give any examples of a MILD winter with above normal snow?

    You have to admit, a “mild and snowy” winter doesn’t exactly roll of the tongue. 😉

    1. In the past 10 years we have had above normal snowfall while also having above average seasonal temperature avg a couple of times. If I am not mistaking one of the times was when we had that snow blitz winter which if I remember correctly averaged above normal for winter season avg temperature. I will have to look when I am near my computer again so don’t hold me to it.

  17. Regarding Snow for this Winter, I would like to point out
    that the current Ocean temperature as recorded at Boston Buoy, some 16 nautical miles East of Boston, is 59 Degrees F.

    That is 5.18 Degrees above average for this date! (Based on about 30 years of data taken from a NOAA website and
    saved in a database I created)

    This WILL have an effect on Snowfall near the coast and likely
    a fair distance inland as well. Oh sure, with sufficient COLD
    weather, the surplus can be reduced over time. The question is, does this happen and if so, when?

    https://imgur.com/a/0ZbPAiD

    1. Nice ! I like the Rutgers snow lab. I had looked at this a day or 2 ago and that´s where I saw the snow-cover in western and central Canada.

  19. Based on what the recon plane is finding, which is westerly low level flow in the vicinity of the disturbance, I think the NHC will classify this as a depression either in a special update or the regular 5 pm update.

    The plane is coming around, we´ll see what kind of winds this thing has on its east side probably in the next half hour.

  20. A couple quick notes…

    While the ocean water temps are warm still (as they have been up this way much of the year) if we have the type of weather pattern I think we may have going into winter, we may not see that much of an impact from it, because there won’t be that many systems to our south, or at least not long enough to maximize the effect. Again just very early speculation. Don’t read into it much.

    There are many examples of winters with above average temperature and above average snowfall. Sometimes in a stormy winter one of the reasons this happens is that many of your night times are overcast with precipitation and your overnight temperature anomaly is rather larger to the positive side because of it. Just one factor. Temperature & precipitation anomalies are not directly related. They never have been.

    Reminder: Hurricane season runs through November 30. 🙂

    Guidance is trending drier for next week…

  21. I just had the most amazing drive! As I got on the ramp in Bedford from 4/225 south to 128 south, the setting sun was stunning (around 5:40), and then when I turned east onto Rte. 2, there was a huge rainbow, mainly red from the very low sun.

    1. I figured somebody in Metro West was going to see one as a little area of showers developed around that time with clearing right behind it. I was too far to the northeast (North Andover) at the time to see a rainbow as the timing of the rain drops there was too early and the rain shaft was too far east before we got brief sun, but it was still a very nice sky to see.

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