Monday October 26 2020 Forecast (7:36AM)

62 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Discussion…

As low pressure tracks northwest of the region today and tonight, its warm front will try, and fail, to pass through the region. It will produce some wet weather, but not a heavy rainfall, and we’ll never get into the warm sector, having an occluded frontal passage instead, putting us into a northerly air flow Tuesday which then turns more easterly Wednesday as a bubble of high pressure slides north of the region in the wake of the low before it. Another area of low pressure will approach and pass south of the region Thursday, some of this being the moisture remains of Hurricane Zeta from the Gulf of Mexico. A second wave of low pressure will probably become a slightly stronger system as it passes by early Friday. The things to figure out with this have been how heavy the rain will be, and whether or not enough cold air from the north arrives before the precipitation ends to give the region some snow at the end of the system. The answers I believe will be that most of the heavier rain will pass south of the region, but a swath of significant rain is still possible, favoring areas south of I-90 as it stands now, and also that cold air will arrive in time for a mix or brief change to snow for some areas Friday morning but a rather rapid departure of the precipitation will prevent any significant snowfall accumulation from occurring. What is pretty certain is that it will be rather cold on Friday.

Details…

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of light rain and drizzle. Highs 51-58. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Patchy drizzle early. Lows 44-51. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower early. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 46-53. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix with snow southwestern NH and north central MA overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain except mix/snow possible especially northwest of I-95 before ending. Clearing afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

A Canadian high pressure area brings fair but colder than normal weather for Halloween October 31 before sliding offshore with dry but milder weather November 1. A cold front comes through early November 2 with a rain shower risk then windy/colder air following. Fair, tranquil but chilly November 3 before a rain shower risk with another passing cold front November 4, based on current timing and anticipated error of poorly-performing models.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Polar jet stream dominant. Current timing would indicate a warm-up November 5-6 then another cold shot but mainly dry weather.

62 thoughts on “Monday October 26 2020 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    I wonder if the Thursday/Friday systems trend a bit more suppressed/southward in the coming days ?????

  4. Snow chatter already bubbling. One funny thing I saw was eric fisher affirming someones tweet that said anytime it has snowed in late october winter has been “a bust”. I wonder what history says about that thought?

    1. There is truth to that. Remember October 2011. A very pitiful winter for snow followed, to say the least.

      2011-12 = 9.3” (Logan)

  5. Good morning and many thanks to Both TK and SAK.
    Dark morning around these parts.

    A big fat goose egg in the bucket overnight.

      2. I rather it dark in the morning than in the afternoon. As a kid, i wish the clocks did not change so that when I got home there was more time to be outside. (yes I was the kid that went outside no matter how cold it was 🙂

  6. Very early season peek at the coastal front today.

    Low-mid 50s at Logan and SE Mass with an east wind, raw low to mid 40s northwest of that with a light N wind.

    1. There must be dry air aloft at the immediate coastline as much of the shower/drizzle activity early this morning remained just to the west of the city (inland) and never made it. Radar was quite active, relatively speaking.

      1. And the reason that this “could” happen would be due
        to mostly a Northerly wind, keeping that warm ocean
        influence at bay. If that wind is NE, forget about it.

        In order for this to happen EVERYTHING would have to be
        aligned PERFECTLY. NOT very likely, but Worth watching
        for sure.

        It will probably be ALL GONE with the 12Z runs! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  8. Today is the day the models “get there” before they head for the actual solution.

    How many times in the last half year, or a longer, have we seen the models at the final and correct solution to a situation when it was day five?

  9. https://imgur.com/gallery/klHaprd

    Based on what I am seeing, it looks like if there is going to be any accumulating snow it would probably be restricted to the higher elevations with most in interior SNE seeing flakes Friday afternoon/evening if there is still precipitation falling.

  10. I have no problem if it ultimately will be just “flakes”. It’s when we get actual “accumulating snow” around here in October that it becomes the kiss of death for the upcoming snow season.

    I wish I knew what the meteorological “mechanics” if you will as to why that occurs.

  11. Thinking that snow in october would have any bearing on the rest of the season sounds very “red sky at night sailors delight” to me. Might as well buy a farmers almanac.

  12. I’d be interested in TK’s thoughts, but I’m not a huge believe in the “October snow dooms the season” theory. Yes, there is a historical correlation, but I have my doubts about the sample size. I do think we’ll likely be below normal for snow this winter, but I wouldn’t chalk up the cause to being because it snowed in October (if it does).

    FWIW, I think many areas, including Boston, see their first flakes at the end of this week. I don’t see much if any accumulation towards the east, say inside of 495, but there’s the potential for a fairly significant early season event in the higher terrain to the northwest.

    1. From a colleague. Data from Lowell, which is a nice representation of the most populated areas of New England, will show that there is no real sway one way or another.

      October Season
      2011 8.7 23.9
      1979 1.5 15.5
      2002 0.4 84.9
      2000 0.2 85.2
      2015 T 38.0
      2009 T 46.0
      2005 T 55.7
      2003 T 41.2
      2001 T 32.7
      1997 T 46.6
      1970 T 79.3
      1969 T 59.1
      1965 T 56.5
      1962 T 37.8
      1960 T 74.8
      1952 T 38.3
      1940 T 66.2
      1934 T 71.5

      I apologize that’s not very well lined-up as I just grabbed a quick copy paste, but those are all the times Lowell recorded October snow, including traces, and the snowfall total for the season.

      Further investigation indicated there is no significant influence from ENSO. In other words, it was about 50/50 regardless of La Nina or El Nino.

      FYI, Lowell’s average snowfall is about 56 inches.

    1. It’s interesting to see how quickly so many forget what time of year it is, and how dependent they are on models that prove themselves fairly unreliable beyond 3 days … over, and over, and over. 😉

        1. Yes indeed. I know you know enough to take that into account. But on the net today (Twitter especially) there is a lot of folks spreading quite a bit of misinformation, not so much intentionally, but just not knowing any better. I keep fighting that battle day after day out there. But a lot of people don’t want to hear from professionals anymore. I guess our experience doesn’t matter. Oh well. 😉

    1. The amount of 100+ year old records going down to defeat is astounding. We’ll be seeing more cold records falling as well.

    1. I believe he’s right on the money. They are related. I’ve seen tweets about the lack of ice, but not many about the snow in North America & the record cold out West. They are very much related.

      1. And this cannot hurt as far as how that correlates to our weather this winter……for those looking for some more frequent shots of cold air to combat that SE ridge.

  20. Tropics not showing signs of dying down just yet. How many Greek letters are left? 🙂

    Jack Sillin
    @JackSillin
    23h

    I’m becoming increasingly convinced that November will bring another 1-3 tropical cyclones in the Caribbean.

    Strong “bipartisan” (EPS/GEFS) support for a very favorable upper-air pattern throughout November and lower surface pressures by 11/4.

    Maps via http://weathermodels.com

    https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1320471702044872704?s=20

    1. I see a signal for 2 significant cold shots in the first 10 days of November then a bout of Indian Summer.

      1. If that’s the key to the pattern this winter…2-3 cold shots to every one shot of warmth…I guess I’ll take it 🙂

        Death to the SE Ridge!!

    1. It’s quite rare indeed. If you take January as the “midpoint”, going out on both sides you’d compare April & October. It snows MUCH more easily in April than October. April is also a colder month, which a lot of people don’t seem to fully realize. At Hartford, the average high for April is about 60 while October has an average of about 63. This just proves what I always say about spring vs. autumn around here. Numbers don’t lie. Facts are facts. 🙂

  23. I hope people don’t read that Eric Fisher tweet as the winter of 2020-2021 will be like 2011-2012.

  24. One more comment on the early season snow correlation. From my personal records for Coventry CT that I have been keeping the past 10 years….

    The last time it snowed here in October was 2016 (2″ on Oct 27). We ended up with 66″ that season.

    In 2012, we got 5″ in early Nov. from that Nor’easter that came up the coast a week after Sandy. I ended up with 100″ of snow that winter, over half of which fell in the Feb 8, 2013 Blizzard (32″) and that freak March storm halfway to Bermuda that hammered us with 20″ of snow from that long fetch off the Atlantic. That was a fairly mild winter overall as I recall but still a snowy one.

    And of course there was 2011 where we received 10″ on Oct 30 and ended up with just 26″ on the season.

    I would tend to agree with the comments above that the correlation of early season snow events to the total winter snowfall is not a great one.

  25. This historical post from the Arctic Report Card that I found in an article discussing the 10/30/11 snowstorm explains the correlation of Arctic sea ice loss to colder temperatures further SOUTH in North America. It is counterintuitive to what you might expect…..

    “There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009 – 2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern…With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009 – 2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations.”

    Of course, we all know what happened to the winter of 2011-2012. It was a torch across the continent. So it’s not a perfect correlation.

    1. Though last year, that correlation verified in the opposite manner. Record strong Polar Vortex much of the winter with building Arctic sea ice and a warm, snowless winter here.

      Very interested to see how this winter plays out!

    2. “the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern…”

      Thanks Mark, interesting and easy enough to follow.

  26. The October snowfall in 2016 was the only one that had above normal snowfall for the winter for inland CT. I laughed at all the people who make it sound like a slam dunk for a snowless winter when it did not happen for winter 2016-2017.

  29. Bozeman MT, old record low temp set in 2002 of 11 was OBLITERATED by 31 degrees with their low of -20 today! Countless other locations broke record low maximum temps and record low temps by greater than 20 degrees!

  30. I’m surprised nobody had a comment on the Parallel GFS’s snowfall forecast of 6-10 inches for most of MA. 😉 Love how the “new and improved” model is already twice as bad on snowfall as the previous version. Nice try. Back to the drawing board…

    Also, the 00z operational GFS is probably a much more realistic representation of what will be occurring early Friday. No surprise.

    1. Dave posted the 6z version of the Para above earlier today. It delivered 21” of snow to my area (Kuchera) and about a foot to Boston. I see it is backing off a tad…. 🙂

    1. In other words, the NAM is out to lunch, and the GFS is a little closer to a solution derived at via meteorology. 😉

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