Thursday October 29 2020 Forecast (7:53AM)

92 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Discussion…

Today, you get spared a long discussion and instead just get this quick summary, because there is not really any change to my thoughts on this forecast. Low pressure passes south of the region tonight and Friday, starting as rain, which will be somewhat beneficial but not as much as some model forecasts have been – another few chips taken out of the drought. Colder air flips the rain to snow first in higher elevations north and west of Boston then eventually toward the city as the precipitation shield gets ready to depart during Friday. Minor snowfall accumulation on the order of a coating to 2 inches take place, greatest in higher elevations well north and west of Boston before things come to an end, and while most of any snow melts away later Friday, even with cold air moving in, some wet ground and puddles will remain and that sets up a good chance for ice patches Friday night as temperatures fall below freezing pretty much regionwide. No changes to the weekend with a chilly but tranquil Halloween, a full moon rising in the evening before clouds arrive, then a milder, breezy Sunday with a rain shower risk as a warm front passes and a cold front approaches. This cold front will bring a fresh shot of cold air by Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast. Highs 46-53. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix or turn to snow southwestern NH and north central MA overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain except mix/snow likely especially northwest of I-95 with minor accumulation favoring higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH (coating to 2 inches maximum). Mostly cloudy afternoon with a passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind NE shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28 except around 30 urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 28-35 evening then a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening becoming S up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Dry weather dominates but with up and down temperatures. Coldest November 3, mildest November 4 and 6 with cooler shots November 5 and 7, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Dry, chilly November 8, warming up November 9-10 then strong cold front follows with a cold shot by November 11. Watch for wave of low pressure with precipitation threat by the end of the period.

92 thoughts on “Thursday October 29 2020 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  4. Thanks TK. Here’s the latest from around the dial: https://imgur.com/a/oNHpA5g

    Random though/question: when we do have a big snowstorm… are snow days for schools now a thing of the past? With how schools have adopted hybrid models do you think they will just switch to online education on snow days? Food for thought.

    1. They all look reasonable. Print it out and place on the wall.
      Blindfold yourself and throw a dart. Where ever it lands,
      that’s your forecast.

      1. Just did this. Blindfolded myself and threw a dart. Looks like we’re getting (checks wall) two big mounds of snow. Oh, shoot… looks like I missed the maps and hit my old pamela anderson poster.

    2. Snow days in the traditional sense, will be a thing of the past eventually. Not just school kids but (office) working adults as well.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    6Z 3KM NAM Kuchera Snow

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2020102906/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    6Z NAM Kuchera Snow

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020102900/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    6Z GFS Kuchera SNOW

    https://m3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020102906/054/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Euro 10:1 Snow

    https://m3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020102900/066/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    6Z HRRR Kuchera Snow (A few flakes still flying at end of run)

    https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020102906/036/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    SREF 12 hour snow ending 21Z Friday

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f042.gif

  7. Upper Air Cold Front?

    Last evening Harvey showed a map with sort of a dash Blue
    cold front that looks similar to what I show below from the WPC.
    I erased part of the blue to simulate what Harvey had.

    I had not seen such a depiction on a weather map since
    Don Kent had it on one of his maps in the 60s and he
    said that it indicated and UPPER AIR COLD FRONT.

    DID Harvey mean that the cold front was indeed an upper air cold front? Or what?

    WPC does NOT depict it that way, but rather as an ordinary
    cold front.

    https://imgur.com/a/WO3NAgK

    Thoughts from the Met crew here? Curious and thanks

    1. I agree 100%. I NEVER get the right key. I spend more time
      back spacing and re-typing what I screwed up!

    1. Kuchera snow

      https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020102912/033/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      10:1 Snow

      https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020102912/036/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

      For the Boston area, it looks like a 6 hour period of light
      to occasionally Moderate snow. With warm ground and ratio, I don’t even see the Kuchera amounts being realized.

      I’d say coating to 1 inch will do it at best. Hope I am wrong.

      Would love to see 2-4 inches or so. Not gonna happen. 🙂

    1. For October, in the Boston area, this is rather robust to say the least. If it is too good to be true??????

      We shall see.

      Waiting on 12Z HRRR and the 12Z RDPS, then comes GFS, GDPS, UKMET and EURO. 🙂

  13. The trend is snowier for tomorrow morning…. with the SSTs, you’ll be hard pressed for accumulation at the coast, though flakes could very well fly. But a not so sneaky 2-4″ event for the Worcester hills, NW RI and northern CT? It’s certainly on the table, and basically in line with the NWS forecast.

    1. Unless we can get that wind to go NORTH, however, forecast
      is for more NE to NNE which would be the kiss of death
      with current ocean temp at: 55.4 Degrees F.

      For the record it was 52 degrees for the Snowtober event
      in 2011. Managed 2 inches here at my house in JP for that one.
      Snow was mixing with rain for many hours before it finally flipped.

  15. Zeta has been a lot more impactful than I expected. Massive power outage numbers in the South. I think I’ve become over-used to slow moving TCs with a primary heavy rainfall threat and forgot how destructive inland winds can be in fast moving storms. One for the books.

  18. I mean this light heartedly …..

    Folks miss snow this much ?? I saw flurries on Mother’s Day, only a bit more than 5 months ago. LOL

  20. FWIW, the RGEM is much less bullish than the WRF guidance. The 12z WRF runs (including and especially the 3km NAM) seem well overdone. This RGEM map is probably more reasonable. Basically a lot of 1-2″ totals in the areas I mentioned above, though the gradient at the coast may be sharper than shown here. *If* the rates end up a little better then you get some isolated higher totals in the higher elevations. But the rates look like the main limiting factor.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2020102912&fh=39&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

      1. Statistically it’s a coin flip. 🙂
        One of my colleagues did the research and there is no clear signal either way for October snow and the winter that follows. It was literally about split down the middle above vs. below.

  24. Not to jump the gun but looking at the 12z GFS, it is downright COLD here Monday afternoon through Wed AM with lots of teens and 20’s for lows and temps not getting out of the 30’s in many places on Tuesday.

    It is also depicting a massive Lake Effect snow plume off Ontario that extends into the Berkshires Mon Night and a shortwave moving through the area around the same time. Looks like some potential for snow showers and maybe even a few squalls extending into SNE and possibly right to the coast.

  28. Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    3h

    Looks like a good burst of snow in many areas for the AM commute. Prepare for slick roads in many areas – especially away from the shore. Keep in mind the sun angle this time of year is about the same as mid-February so mdt/heavy snow generally doesn’t have a tough time sticking.

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1321818506309079041?s=20

    Also can’t rule out some scattered power outages with leaves still on many trees. In a totally different league than 2011 but a few limbs may come down. #nbcct

  29. National Weather Service
    @NWS
    15h

    Some impressive wind reports from
    @NWSNewOrleans
    as #Zeta moved through this evening.

    112 mph – Bayou Bienvenue, LA
    104 mph – Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
    101 mph – Gulfport, MS
    101 mph – Shell Beach, LA
    100 mph – Laplace, LA

  33. From Ryan Hanrahan. I am waiting to see how much they go up from a coating to one inch for my area.
    Snow totals going up for tomorrow. Prepare for a slippery commute. Standby for an update.

  34. A couple things to keep in mind about the snow tomorrow…

    1) Shorter duration than 2011.
    2) Not as heavy for nearly as long as 2011.
    3) 2011’s event was almost completely during dark hours, while this one in eastern areas flips to snow with the arrival of daylight.
    4) It’s mid autumn, not mid winter.

    1. Not to mention Warm Ground and Ocean temp of
      54.86 Degrees, making it pretty tough near the coast
      as long as there is a wind component off of the water.

    1. Hmmm
      2 inches for my house.

      I wonder, are they hanging their hats on the Euro combined
      with the NAMS. Appears so.

  39. Here’s the WWA from the NWS that JJ mentioned:

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

    CTZ002>004-MAZ002>005-008>012-026-RIZ001-300330-
    /O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0010.201030T0800Z-201030T1600Z/
    Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
    Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
    Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
    Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
    Northwest Providence RI-
    Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
    Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre,
    Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
    Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, Ayer, Foster,
    and Smithfield
    318 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT
    FRIDAY…

    * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches.

    * WHERE…Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern and
    western Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island.

    * WHEN…From 4 AM to noon EDT Friday.

    * IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
    conditions could impact the morning commute.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…main roads will initially be wet, but as
    temperatures fall below freezing during Friday morning, roads
    will become snow covered especially secondary roads and any
    untreated surfaces. If the higher end snow amounts (3 inches)
    become more widespread, down tree branches and isolated power
    outages would be possible.

    1. A blessing in disguise I guess that this second storm is not tracking a bit further north or we would be talking higher snow totals. Even something half the amount we saw in 2011 would result in widespread tree carnage and power outages.

  43. Hope all are doing well!

    Nice to see some talk of snow but again too soon IMO. With the kids home it’s been nice having a good weather for a lot of outdoor time.

    1. Well hello Hadi! Welcome home!
      I thought that you may have left us for good.
      Please drop by more often.

        1. Next time you post, I assume you just want your first name being used. They are going to moderation for first & last because that is different than what you were using before. Just wanted you to know. 🙂

  46. Late afternoon thoughts…

    I’m still not overly impressed with the snow potential, but some places will be white for a while. 🙂

    I am impressed with the magnitude of the second surge of arctic air, and yes it is going to be arctic air, that arrives here on Monday. Some places will not leave the 30s all day on November 3. I am also impressed with the potential for 2 brief but significant surges of warm air around Nov 6 & Nov 10 (give or take a day or so).

    Take note that the ECMWF is very inconsistent in details that will highly impact temperatures just between yesterday’s and today’s 12z runs, so the model woes continue – not unexpected.

    Have a great day. 🙂

    1. What are your thoughts on snow shower/squall potential Monday night associated with this cold surge? GFS has what looks like a significant lake effect snow plume developing off Ontario and extending into western New England.

      1. I don’t think we’ll see an organized line, but we could see a few of those lake squalls survive as snow showers into at least western areas. We’ll see about beyond that as we get a little closer to the event.

  49. This feels like what you would see in March to close October and begin November with the temperature swings.

    1. I like that we’re starting to get back into some good autumn cold shots. They’ve been making reappearances at times and this is a trend that will continue (AMO).

  50. Thanks, Mark,, for your post at 1:26.
    October 29 has been a big day for local weather in recent years. Remembered the snow of 2011 and Sandy in 2012. Forgot about the Woods Hole tornado.

    I did remember the 2018 Norton Tornado on October 24. The storm blew through about five miles northwest of my home.

  51. JR mentioned the correlation with October snow and the total snowfall for an upcoming winter and it is not good. It seems that only ONE winter had above normal snowfall. He didn’t mention specifically what year that was though. I wish he had.

    I suppose it could happen a second time, but I won’t count on it. Oh well.

    And I suppose the SE ridge sticks out like a sore thumb anyway.

    1. I am thinking that winter with the above normal snowfall is 2002-2003. I remember snow on October 23rd that year.

  54. Not that the HRRR is a great cold season forecast tool, but it seems to be trending a touch drier with time.

    Mid level dry intrusion (in pieces) over the next 8 to 10 hours or so.

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