Sunday November 1 2020 Forecast (8:34AM)

54 Comments

COMMENTARY

Once up a blue moon, we have a white Halloween. Well… Now that Halloween and the month of October have come and gone, it’s onto November, the penultimate month of 2020, and despite the oddities and trials the year has given us, there is still weather every day, still people that need to travel, so it’s time to look ahead at the first half of this month, starting with the first 5 days in this section, as well as a quick teaser that I have a “Retrovember” treat for the blog starting as soon as I finish the update, i.e., a switch back to the original format of the blog that was used from its birth to earlier this year. WHW turns 10 years old at the end of the year, so I thought it would be fun to do something like that.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Discussion…

A warmer southerly air flow is now in place across the region. But as of 8:00 a.m. there’s quite a temperature contrast across the region, ranging from near freezing in some interior sections of MA and southern NH to the middle 50s on Cape Cod. Temperatures will become more uniform as the day goes on and the southerly wind exerts its influence on those colder areas. A weak disturbance will bring some rain showers to Cape Cod and a few others may pop up over southeastern MA this morning. An approaching cold front will interact with the moisture ahead of it and produce a widespread area of rain showers which will move in from southwest to northeast toward day’s end. With sunset now just after 4:30 p.m., we will get through most of our short daylight rain-free, but it becomes quite wet this evening as these showers move through, with enough instability that even a rumble of thunder may occur in some areas. The cold front pushes through overnight and offshore by Monday morning, and Monday will be a “cold-advection” day in which the temperature really doesn’t go anywhere after its initial fall behind the cold front, as the sun (mixed with clouds) tries to warm the air, cold air will be coming in. But what you will really notice Monday is the wind. Low pressure moving away will become quite strong while a significant high pressure area moves into the Great Lakes region and the pressure difference between these will be rather significant, creating a northwest air flow that will produce wind gusts in excess of 40 MPH. This will likely result in some tree damage and isolated to scattered power outages. The wind will continue into Monday night as a disturbance moves through, and this may produce some snow showers and even a snow squall in a few locations, into the first few hours of Tuesday before it departs, and we end up with a dry, breezy, but cold Election Day. High pressure moves overhead Tuesday night for a clear, calm, but cold night, and then the high slides offshore Wednesday and we see a significant temperature recovery, which will continue into Thursday as well when many areas reach or exceed 60!

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy this morning with a passing shower Cape Cod and possible shower remainder of southeastern MA. Mostly cloudy this afternoon with numerous rain showers arriving from southwest to northeast late-day. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THIS EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT): Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures in the 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds. Temperatures falling to near 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain or snow showers. Temperatures steady around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing snow showers. Slight chance of a snow squall. Minor snow accumulation possible. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with a risk of a passing snow shower early morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 except 25-32 immediate coast and urban areas. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Dry weather will be dominant through November 9 at least, starting out with above normal temperatures November 6-7 as high pressure to the south is dominant, then a frontal boundary sneaks through and high pressure to the north dominates with cooler weather November 7-8. Uncertainty for the end of the period but current indications are for a warm-up but also the potential for some wet weather arriving November 10 ahead of a cold front from the west. At day 10 though, low confidence on this.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Cooler / colder air may move back in and we’ll have to watch moisture to the south during the middle of this period for potential impact here.

54 thoughts on “Sunday November 1 2020 Forecast (8:34AM)”

  1. Thanks TK!

    Do you know how much snow Logan received? And more importantly, where can I look this up myself?

  2. Thanks TK!

    It was so good to see light out the door for my commute to work this early morning. Not looking forward to the commute home though between the earlier darkness and the rain. Hopefully I will be inside before the heavy thunderstorms arrive. If I can make it by 4:30 as my goal.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Always loved the word penultimate. Pretty cool how you worked it into the discussion. 🙂

    Euro looks pretty interesting 10 days out. A race between some tropical
    moisture to the South and an Eastward charging cold front.
    In this scenario, I’d wager moisture comes through first and then the front passes.
    We shall see. I am curious to see how that unfolds or even if that set up comes
    close to fruition.

  4. Thanks, TK…Great commentary and discussion as always, sir!

    Happy November, EST and All Saints Day!

    Yesterday’s sunrise was the latest of the year (7:16 am). The sunrise on December 31 and early January will “only” be 7:12. Because EDT ends on November 7 next year, we have the latest sunrise it can be at 7:23 am on Saturday, November 6, 2021.

    Everytime we change the clocks, the great debate of changing the clocks or not reigns.
    In 1974, Congress and President Nixon decided to extend Daylight Savings Time for a period of 16 months because of the energy crisis.
    Sunrise on January 3, 1975 was 8:13 am, the latest sunrise in my lifetime.

    1. If I was in charge, EST would be year round. Of course summer sunsets around here would peak at 7:25 pm. I’ll accept the sacrifice.

      I remember those days in the 1970’s as well leaving for school in the dark and arriving into my homeroom at first sunlight.

      I will very much enjoy these next precious few months of “Standard” time.

  5. Thanks and good morning, TK.

    I love the photo at the top! I don’t love how tiny the text is on my phone, with the archives on the side.

        1. That gave me a good out loud laugh while I was sitting in a drive-thru line. 😀

          If I get enough hate for this fun little retro stunt then I will cancel it sooner. 😉

          My thought process was just giving people a little look back at what it used to be like and maybe that would help things feel a little better around here. 😉

          1. This retro look back to the old layout is a joy to see!

            I realize this may not be popular, but I always found the previous layout to be super-readable. Something about the font, the judicious use of bold print, and the menu organization. It had its advantages.

            The only thing not showing here that we saw previously is the commenting section at top right. Where it used to say ‘most recent comments’. That was useful, and made it easy to navigate to the bottom of the page.

            Having said that, some have different devices and they may have a different experience. It’s all good.

  6. A week or so back there was some talk here of a November torch—is that still the outlook for the the month overall?

  8. I rather not have daylight savings time and would like us to stay with what we have during the summer. I could care less what we wake up to if it gives me some more time in the afternoon with sun.

    1. I´m with this for New England.

      It would cause our sun to rise about 8:10 to 8:15 from mid December to late January, but we would always have post 5pm sunsets.

      I don´t know how well this would work in the far western portion of the eastern time zone for a city like Cleveland, whose sun wouldn´t rise to almost 9am.

      I´d throw out there having New England drop back a half hour, as New England uniquely sits so far eastward within the time zone.

      I think this has business implications, but can´t we work around having half hour differences in business openings within the time zone ……

      1. Not sure if I heard this correctly but England actually moved their clocks forward “2 hours” during WW II. I don’t understand what the purpose of that was at all.

        Can anyone here confirm that??

        1. Yes, that did happen and it was so that during the evening hours in which people were going home from work and doing their daily things it was still daylight for safety reasons.

          1. Thanks Matt. That would have made it quite dark for much of their mornings well past breakfast hours. I’m too much of a “morning” person I guess.

            Of course WW II was a “sacrifice” for most countries in general of both lives and daily activity.

      1. Got it! My reference above was really more about FB posts. Every year at this time I see people complaining about the switch to Daylight Savings Time when we have actually just ENDED it. 😉 No difference this year!

  10. Just in case anybody is confused. Daylight Savings Time is what just ended.
    This is Standard Time now. I am seeing posts all over the net about hating the switch to Daylight Savings Time. That actually occurs when we turn the clocks FORWARD in the spring. Somehow, the general population has seemed to flip the two in recent years.

    We started Standard Time at 2 a.m. this morning. Daylight Savings Time is now over.

  11. Dave, to answer your question from above…
    November won’t be a blow-torch month. We’re going to have a shot of arctic air tomorrow / Tuesday, then a warm-up maybe to “Indian Summer” levels later in the week. More cool air follows that via high pressure in eastern Canada, followed by another warm-up. Somewhere around mid month, depending on what happens with a few “players” we may have a couple of pretty wild temperature swings which include good cold from Canada. Beyond that, I’m not sure at the moment…

      1. Glad to know that I was correct on the “Indian Summer” as I wasn’t quite sure if we still qualified for that pattern.

        1. Well some people consider it not to be Indian summer unless it reaches 70. That probably will not happen.

      2. If you consider two years a while…

        A general 4 to 8-inch snowfall across the Boston area in mid November 2018. 🙂

        So it has not been a while at all. Just 2 years.

        1. Sorry TK. I have no memory of that at all. I usually never forget a good snow like that, especially during fall or spring. Thanks though. 🙂

          1. I remember it quite well as it significantly delayed my yard cleanup & early lay-out of electric cords for Christmas lights. 😉

  12. Philip I noticed that you mentioned heavy thunderstorms arriving later? What forecast did you get that from? Certainly not mine. 🙂

    This evening I have numerous showers with a slight chance of thunder..
    I probably should have worded that a remote chance.

    1. Accuweather on WBZ radio described it as “a gusty thunderstorm” and Ch. 5 Kelly Ann touted it even more. I assume a very strong cold front?

      1. I’ll have to somewhat disagree with both. If we do get embedded thunder in the shower area, it will be this evening, after dark, and it won’t have much of any impact except sound waves. 🙂

  14. The good news: I was able to help my mom take down all her outdoor Halloween decorations and switch to the November / Thanksgiving stuff before the rain arrived.

    The not-as-good news: The rain got here just when I was ready to fill 2 barrels with downed leaves in prep for the collection this coming week (already have 3 full barrels of compacted dry leaves).

    The even-better news: I just realized that every time we get strong northwest winds, all the leaves that are sitting where the ones are I was about to pick up end up blowing out into the road and vanish, never to be seen again. BAHAHAHA!!! I love it. 😉

  15. Quick thoughts on medium range guidance…

    GFS & ECMWF are ok today in the general pattern out for several days for this part of the world.

    They are crap for the South, especially the Gulf.

    ECMWF is too amplified (again) starting around November 10.

    1. Upon further review:
      Just checked the Weather Underground. That radar is now picking up that heavier shower.

    2. There was a heavier band there, but that enhanced area was probably a function of the angle of the radar beam.

  17. I was out in the snow on Friday and in its beauty yesterday morning getting some shots.
    I was struck by the different season colors yesterday, the green of spring and summer, the yellow and red of autumn and the snow white of winter. Four seasons at once, all under an umbrella of a deep, blue sky.

    Here’s a sample:

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/991BoJHbWkJ1pxaY6

    1. Just fabulous. I have taken so many photos in the last couple weeks I literally ran out of storage space. 😉

      The mix of seasons was wondrous! I could do this photo thing all day every day.

  18. Thoughts on the Patriots.
    1. Cam Newton should be benched for Stidham, I feel the season is rather over and if the patriots for some reason loose to the Jets, that is a certainty.
    2. Harris is a positive for this offense
    3. Meyers and Byrd are AVG receivers that can get open and separated but cam can not hit them on the right side of the field. They were also open down the field and Cam just does not see the field like he should be.
    4. Defense can not stop the run, but the secondary can go without Gilmore which might be good.
    5. I feel the Patriots will have 2 first rounders with one being a QB.
    6. Bill has a plan and probably already looking ahead to next season as this season has had the makings of a rebuild.
    7. With that said I feel the patriots still have a chance within the division, due to schedules but its going to be very hard and they need to think about next season which is very much why I feel we should see what we have in Stid who we have only seen when the game is way out of hand. Honestly felt he should have been put in the second half of this game, I feel there would have been a different outcome.

      1. I’m thinking more like coat some roads and make late-night travel slick for a little while.

          1. Maybe some coating to 1/2 inch type amounts north of Boston. I don’t think Logan would get in on that, but you never know!

  20. Thanks TK – for creating such an amazing space and then showing up every day for 10 years both with your amazing forecasts and analysis and also to keep it from falling into disarray as we would without your hand always still lightly on the tiller.

    Only one conplaint – please don’t ever leave me alone at WBZ again – I promise to be (mostly) good!!

    Happy anniversary WHW!!!!

    1. Thank you 🙂

      I haven’t visited the WBZ or any local blogs in recent months. I’m curious sometimes what it’s like there now.

      I still would love to hear from ImAlwaysRight here on this blog. 😉

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