Monday November 2 2020 Forecast (7:31AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

Discussion…

This week starts off with a shot of modified arctic air. You’ll feel it today, especially with winds from the northwest that will gust in the 35-45 MPH range, making temperatures around 40 feel more like they are near 32. The gusty wind is also likely to take down some weakened tree limbs and maybe even a few older whole trees, resulting in isolated to scattered power outages. Please use caution if walking and/or driving especially near trees. Tonight, a disturbance crosses the region with a few snow showers, except rain or snow showers southeastern MA and RI, and even a heavier snow squall may occur, especially north of Boston. This will usher one more surge of wind and cold into the region for Election Day Tuesday. If you are heading out to the polls, be ready for some additional wind and quite chilly air, although the wind will not be as strong as it will be today, and it will also turn out sunnier than today will be. And then things change when we get to midweek. A warm front will scoot through the region with little fanfare except for some cloudiness early Wednesday, and as high pressure takes up residence south of New England we’ll find ourselves in a mild pattern for the remainder of the week. The remains of a disturbance may bring a few more cloudiness to the region early Friday.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and clouds. A passing shower of rain, sleet, and snow possible. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing snow showers, except rain/mix/snow showers southeastern MA / RI. A brief heavier snow squall possible mainly northern MA and southern NH with a small accumulation possible. Lows 27-33. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds and a possible snow shower, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

High pressure will continue its dominance, with above normal temperatures. November 8-9 may end up slightly cooler than the other days due to a wind shift from a high pressure area to the north not well-forecast by guidance at this time. Previous thinking was that a cold front may arrive November 10 with a rain shower risk, but that currently looks more like the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Watch for a period of unsettled weather around November 12-13 as a front may settle just south of the region with a wave of 2 of low pressure on it. Generally fair weather and possibly another push of cold air follows this.

56 thoughts on “Monday November 2 2020 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  7. Thanks TK!

    A whiplash forecast for sure. The past week combined with the next week or two certainly has a dead giveaway look for being the pattern we’ll see all winter, not to say it has to turn out that way. Dominant warmth, but occasional sharp cold shots. Occasional precipitation events but the potential for some lengthy dry spells also. And for snow, who knows haha, but I do continue to favor below normal.

    Impressive as the cold is this morning, I’m blown away by the upper level pattern for the coming week. Straight out of July/August, and with much more staying power than the cold.

    1. How to RUIN my week right off the bat(!@*#&*(@^#*(!^@&#$^!@*(^$(*!@^$*(!^@*$^!@($^!(@$^

      Thanks a lot

      Here’s hoping you are dead wrong. 🙂

      1. Hey, you already got a historic October snowstorm so no matter what it won’t be a totally lost snow season! 🙂

        1. That is true. But you know that I always want more. 🙂

          Besides no matter what any Met prognosticates, doesn’t mean it will pan out.

    2. Yee-hoo !!

      I have a love-hate thing with the snow and accompanying cold.

      I had a little kid reaction to the snow Friday, but I wouldn´t mind if it held off again til later in December and we had a chance to have more mild to warm weather during the next 5 to 6 weeks or so.

  8. Above normal winter temps doesn’t necessarily mean below normal snowfall. I remember the winter of 05-06 was a warmer than normal winter yet we had 62 inches of snow at BDL including what was then the biggest snowstorm of all time that winter in February with 21.3 inches of snow.

  9. Thank you TK!
    One would think that extreme weather pattern swings and drastic repositioning of the of both northern and southern jets would bring about increased chances for larger storms to develop on boundaries during these frequent and sharp airmass changes. If this is the pattern setting up could that mean a stormier November and December ? Not saying all snow storms but storms in general with perhaps rain changing to snow and vice versa.

  10. Hurricane Eta is explosively intensifying this morning.

    The satellite loop shows this with each passing hour and every pass of the recon plane through the center has a 1- 2mb drop. These passes through the center probably occur once every 30 – 45 minutes.

      1. It will be interesting ….. not sure if it is Eta itself (this system is going to spend a lot of time over central America) or maybe its another one that evolves in the western Caribbean. Another option is for Eta to not survive central America and nothing else materializes in the western Caribbean. All options on the table, I believe.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    Those “sinking” high pressure areas. To me that’s the dominant theme for very long time. As WxWatcher said, look for brief spurts of cold followed by long periods of warmth. Until the highs stop doing this ridge thing, setting up shop to our south and southeast I’m afraid our 2020-2021 winter may be similar to 2019-2020.

    1. I got 1.31 inch and looking at the reports, I am pretty well certain now that
      my rain gauge needs to be either cleaned and/or recalibrated.

      A bit of that could have been melted snow, but even accounting for that, my reading still appears to be high.

  13. I may be reading the tea leaves incorrectly, but I get the distinct idea that
    the weather gods want to send a flotilla of Lakes cutters our way over the next
    couple of weeks.

    1. Yes, and with that southwesterly – thanks to an ever-present high to our south/southeast the lows will indeed ride well west of us. Oh well. Let’s hope the pattern changes in December.

    2. I don’t get that sense. I get the sense there may be a couple low that track somewhere between the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, but not a classic “Lakes Cutter” pattern at all.

      1. Either way, it sounds like no snow events anytime soon. I believe that track still means the same thing…WARMTH!

        1. Well, we don’t tend to get a lot of snow events in November anyway, so there isn’t really anything unusual about that.

          Boston’s average November snowfall is 1.3 inch. What happened a few days ago at the end of October was quite anomalous.

          Winter begins later in December, but a lot of folks for some reason lately think winter begins as soon as it gets cold a couple times. Not really. We still have quite a bit of autumn left here before snow events become more frequent by normal standards.

          The other thing is, a low pressure track near the bench mark at this time of year often means rain unless we have some anomalous cold in place. The benchmark rule works more for the winter and early spring, not autumn. The ocean water temperatures are too high for that rule to work the vast majority of times. What made Boston break their snow record for October the other day was anomalous cold , abundant moisture, and a NORTHWEST wind. If that wind had stayed northeast, they’d have gotten under 1 inch of snow.

  15. I’ve seen a lot of pre-mature calls with great confidence that Eta will eventually impact Florida (mostly on Facebook weather pages). Not so fast. Any meteorologist will tell you it’s far too early to determine that. Eta may never make it more than a few hundred miles from where it is now, although that is TBD as well. One step at a time. We need to focus a little more on current & short term with things like this before we start to get too far ahead, especially given the current state of our prognostic charts.

    Meteorology not Modelology… I have a feeling I’m going to be using that phrase a lot in the coming months. 😉

    1. Eric Fisher

      @ericfisher
      ·
      1h

      Honestly you could probably plant some grass seed on Wednesday and have a good shot at it growing, if need be. Mild weather looks dominant this month. Very 2011-esque

      GIF

      12

      14

      60

      Now a Cat 4 buzzsaw. And very slow moving. This is bad news for Central America….

      Jim Cantore
      @JimCantore
      8m

      What a beast! Incredible escalation to superpower in less than 24 hours!

      https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1323385303659433984?s=20

  18. Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    Nov 1

    1/ If La Niña winter translates into a strong #PolarVortex (PV), positive #Arctic Oscillation (AO) and mild winter in Eastern US (& Europe for that matter) then the latest CFS didn’t get the memo. CFS predicting a weak PV & negative AO with #cold temperatures in east US & Europe.

    2/ No one should interpret this as my forecast or that I feel this is likely but rather to keep an open mind to the upcoming #winter, I believe we really don’t know what to expect. I will try my best to share my best in the blog to try to anticipate the vagaries & whims of winter

    3/ I purposefully stop showing CFS forecasts of the #PolarVortex because it clearly has a weak bias. Asking is the CFS predicting a sudden stratospheric warming in the coming months is as trivial as asking – “is the Pope is Catholic?” End

  19. I just took a look at the latest CFS that Judah was referring to. For New England it shows:

    December: Torch with above normal temps and also above normal precip
    January : Near normal temps and near normal precip
    February: Below normal temps and above normal precip
    March: Near normal temps and near to below normal precip

    1. Will it be a February to remember? I recall in one of our last moderate to strong La Nina winters (2010-2011) the NAO went negative for most of a 6 week stretch from late Dec to early Feb and we had that insane period of cold and snow. Ended up with 80″+ of snow on the winter and a snowpack of 40″ at one point. Outside of that 6 week stretch, the rest of the winter was pretty benign. This is what we need this winter…..some favorable indices like -NAO, -AO, and MJO to set up shop for awhile and offset that SE Ridge which looks to dominate the month of November. And perhaps December as well if the CFS is right.

      1. It was the second snowiest winter for inland CT thanks to that six week stretch. The snowiest winter of 95-96.

  20. Without many recon planes into Eta today, I commend the NHC for trying to keep up with its explosive intensification today.

    Finally, another plane on the way and I think they may well find a cat 5 with a sub 930 mb pressure.

    1. Really bad news for Central America. The very slow movement reminds me of Dorian on its approach to the Bahamas. Only saving grace, unlike Dorian, is that it should weaken more quickly as it gets closer to the coast and starts to interact with all that mountainous land.

  21. To your point TK, I thought Judah’s blog was very good this week. Non-biased and open minded. Acknowledges that snow cover extent in recent years has not been a reliable predictor for the winter. Explains all the possibilities but still doesn’t seem to have a good sense what is going to happen this winter.

    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

    He does continue to point out some similarities to late 2011 (the start of that dreadful winter that wasn’t) and also notes that the two strongest La Nina years on record were very mild ones on the east coast. On the other hand, one big difference from Fall 2011 is the warm SST’s in the North Pacific that can result in an eastward shift in the North Pacific ridging which in turn forces troughing and cold temperatures further east relative to a typical La Niña. This was mentioned in one of the other winter forecasts I posted a few weeks back as well.

  22. The last part mentioned to me says so your saying there is a chance this winter will be different than 2011-2012.

    1. JJ, I was just relaying some snippits of what Judah said but if you are asking my opinion, no- I do not think this will be a repeat of the winter of 2011-2012 or the last two winters for that matter. I see periods where the southeast ridge will dominate, especially early in the winter, but we will have our share of cold shots and being caught in that “battlezone” area isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

      To me there are a couple wildcards….

      1. Does La Nina remain this strong all winter or does it start to relax in early 2021?
      2. Do we finally get help this year from the PNA, NAO, and MJO? Any of these can help squash that SE ridge on a dime.
      3. The PV – need a weaker/displaced PV this winter. A strong PV, like last year and what is setting up shop right now for awhile, would be a disaster coupled with La Nina.

  23. My goodness ….. the last hour, the cdo is now perfectly symmetric with the coldest cloud tops possible and that tiny, tight eye.

    I wish that plane would get there. This thing could be sub 910 mb and at 170-180 mph. It reminds me of Patricia in the eastern Pacific.

    It’s a frightening looking loop.

    2. If the 7.9 -8.1 on the Dvorak method is correct with Eta that = 196mph winds shattering the wind strength of any Atlantic or Caribbean hurricane in history in NOVEMBER!! It is insane plus its going southwest towards heavily populated areas.

    3. Only saving grace is that intense center core is very small in diameter. It should hopefully be a relatively localized area of catastrophic devastation.

      No doubt going to be a Cat 5 on the next update.

    4. Eye currently projected to pass over or near Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. That city has a population of 66,000.

  24. Well speak of the devil, Eric Fisher just commented on what I posted above about those abnormally warm ocean waters in the northern Pacific. Odd for a La Nina year. More ridging there drives the troughiness and colder air further east in North America.

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    52m

    Into November and still an extremely mild North Pacific. This is quite strange for La Nina. Oceanic analogs for winter forecasting are pretty much non-existent at the moment

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1323424789487255557?s=20

  25. This coming recon mission into Eta is gonna be wild. We’ll know very soon. I expect 890-910mb on the pressure, top winds probably 175-200 mph.

  27. Well that was anticlimactic. Recon shows Eta’s pressure around 927mb, with peak winds “only” around 145mph, though the winds could be at least a little higher than that as they haven’t sampled much of the storm. Obviously a very intense, albeit tiny, hurricane, but dramatically weaker than satellite would indicate. It’s also possible the winds and pressure may need another few hours to “catch up” to the satellite appearance.

  28. From a colleague and long-time forecaster. They don’t write here they allows me to share info from emails they send me. Here’s the latest, putting some things in perspective regarding Eta. This is important. A lot of this is not talked about. A lot of this is not known. So many people think things going on are the “first ever” or the “worst”. No. That’s not nearly always the case. Apologies for the double spacing. Read on…

    If Eta becomes Cat 5, it will be not the first Cat 5 in Nov on record in

    the ATLC. There was this in 1932:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Cuba_hurricane

    175 mph and at least 915 mb.

    So not unprecedented, and two Cat 5s 88 years apart in Nov do not

    indicate a trend.

    For 28 NS, 2020 ACE is still not that impressive. ACE stands at 149

    currently. There have been 23 seasons with more ACE and most with

    far less storms (see attachment):

    1926 11 NS 230 ACE

    1893 12 NS 231 ACE

    1995 19 NS 227 ACE

    2004 15 NS 227 ACE

    2005 28 NS 245 ACE

    1933 20 NS 259 ACE

    If anything, ACE is underestimated the further you go back b/c

    storms far at sea were missed and even those detected, you

    didn’t have sat imagery or recon to truly know how intense

    systems were often. esp. the small ones (like Eta). A sig percentage

    of TCs then were underestimated in intensity, even to this day to a

    lesser degree with those with no recon or other in situ data.

    Proper perspective is necessary here. Letting the here and now

    event b/c the individual TC (Eta) is impressive skews perception.

    Need to look at things as a whole, not individual events. I realize

    it is easy to get caught up in the here and now (human nature),

    but it is important to be able take a step back and look at the

    broader picture.

    And in a season, like 2020, where many TCs become NS outside the

    MDR closer to land areas, RI near landfall is much more likely since the

    storms haven’t had the time to do their RI well out to sea, mature fully,

    undergo ERCs, and expand their wind field, like a classic long-tracked

    Cabo Verde does. Once that happens, RI later on as they get close

    to landfall is much less likely. Florence in 2018 was like this. So

    from a climo standpoint, this is consistent with what is to be expected

    for RIs.

    Major hurricane days so far in 2020 are only 6.75. Avg to date

    is 6.0, so there has been a lack of long-tracked intense hurrs, as you

    would see in a classic Cabo Verde season. Eta will continue this trend

    as a major hurr only for a short time. This is significant as this is what

    really drives ACE and shows how conducive or not the large scale

    pattern is in the tropics and subtropics for supporting intense hurrs.

    As noted earlier, lots of SALs, dry air, and shear were a problem

    across much of the MDR region this season. Now that we are

    late season, developments typically take place in the Caribbean, where

    it hasn’t been that unfavorable overall, and high OHC is the deepest

    in the entire ATLC basin. So what’s happening now isn’t that atypical in

    a climo sense. Storms are forming and becoming intense where

    they should be. Yes, I do agree a 130 kt hurricane in Nov is uncommon.

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