Tuesday November 3 2020 Forecast (7:34AM)

38 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Discussion…

A few rain and snow showers start the day in southeastern sections (further south than I expected originally) but these will not cause any significant travel issues and will be gone in short order, leaving the region with a breezy, but bright Election Day. If you are in-person voting, dress for the chill because you’ll feel it. But this is the end of the colder weather for quite some time as we are flipping the weather pattern and will see the cold air make a return to the western US while here in the eastern US we warm up. This will be due to a fairly stable pattern of large scale low pressure in the West and a large ridge of high pressure dominating the East.

Details…

TODAY: Lots of clouds and passing rain/snow showers southeastern MA and RI early, then mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouding up overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

High pressure will be dominant with dry weather through November 10. Temperatures may cool very slightly November 8 before warming again, but will average above to much above normal. A cold front will be due about November 11 (Veterans Day) with some rain showers and an end to the warm spell, and low pressure may come along as this front sits just south of the region with at least cloudiness and possibly some precipitation at the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Unsettled weather potential early in the period as a frontal boundary pushes back to the north then low pressure drags another front through from the west to bring a surge of cooler/drier weather mid period before a late-period warm-up.

38 thoughts on “Tuesday November 3 2020 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  1. Thanks TK!

    A November “blowtorch” ahead? Will this be a true definition?

    It also looks quite dry again as well.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    My wife and I voted by mail a few weeks ago and our votes were received and accepted.

    Could be a long night tonight and may my candidate win!

  7. Thanks TK
    I am prepared to be standing in line for a while today voting. I am wearing winter coat and beanie. BORING weather the rest of the week and for the weekend.

  8. Thanks, TK…
    Good morning.

    Some snow showers around 6:45, but partly sunny here now in the ‘Boro.

  9. I voted in-person right at 7 am. I arrived at 6:50 with a ten-minute wait outside and ten minutes inside once the doors open. Out by 7:10. Very easy and efficient.

    Teacher day today. Students do not have classes.

      1. We, as most local communities, do not hold student classes on major election days, as our school uses the high school gym as a polling place. Logistically, it is difficult to hold classes and an election on campus.

  10. I voted by mail weeks ago as well. Put it in the mailbox the day after I received it. I assume my ballot was received and accepted. If I had done it a few days ago, I probably would be a bit concerned.

    No lines, no waiting, no mask, no virus. 🙂

  11. Thanks TK.

    I have never seen lines on election day like the ones I waited in this morning. Our Town is 12,000 people and our voting locations are split between the high school and intermediate school. It took me 30 min to get in and out. On a normal year its about 10 min. I was surprised given the large number of people that have already voted ahead by mail.

    No doubt going to be record turnout this year and the previous record will be shattered!

  12. I waited in line 35 minutes to vote today which was the longest I have ever waited to vote. I did not mind as I was dressed for it and mentally I was preparing to be waiting for an hour to vote.

  13. I do not understand why people do not do it the way Billerica does it. You are in and out very quick. If your street goes to a certain elementary school you go to that school to vote and if that school has more than 2 areas the third goes to the middle school that serves that area.
    Early voting this year though the townhall was full of people, it took me no time at all to get my ballot and cast it.
    My brother who is poll working this year is saying there have been no lines outside of the building. Which means there has been nothing more than 10 minutes which is a large wait time for our town which it takes maybe 2 minutes for me last time. Billerica is considered top 5 in terms of its size so not sure if the school thing works for all towns as some might not have elementary schools but there are ways.

  14. From Judah Cohen
    1/ All the early #winter weather has been focused in North America so far this fall but growing confidence in building high pressure/blocking centered near the Barents-Kara Seas will support the expansion of both #cold temperatures and #snowfall across Asia & even Europe.

    2/ But because Ural blocking is associated with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation this pattern favors milder weather in the East US & Western Europe in the short term but longer term this is favorable pattern for disrupting the #PolarVortex followed by severe #winter weather.

    1. I am feeling more and more that this winter overall will be warm and snowless, but we have a 4 to 5 week period of extreme winter weather that sends the area to near normal snowfall. just a current feeling at the time.

  15. Winter 2010-2011 was a six week snow blitz and the rest of the winter was a dud. If we get a stretch like that this winter snowfall could be close if not a little bit above normal.

    2. 2010-11 = 81.0” at Logan

      Those were the days… 😉

      Coincidentally that was the winter that WHW was born! 😀

  16. 2010-2011 is not a great analog but what seems to be emerging as a decent one is 1988-1989.

      1. Again, nothing set in stone. These possible analogs are their own form of guidance. Still have about 2 weeks left before I’m comfortable forecasting this winter.

  17. 2010-2011 had a strong La Nina similar to this year but also had a solid -NAO for that six week stretch from Dec thru Feb when we had persistent cold and cashed in with a pretty constant barrage of snow events. I don’t recall what the MJO was doing back then but suspect it was favorable as well.

    Unfortunately it’s hard to predict the NAO and MJO more than a few weeks out. But I know there are other indicators (SST’s, etc) that we can look at in advance to have a better guess what the likelihood is for a blocking pattern and some east coast troughiness to set up this winter.

    I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on that TK. I am surmising from your comment above about 2010-2011 not being a good analog year that you think our chances of getting much favorable blocking this winter are not that high.

    1. Well, the lack of sea ice at this point is a factor in trying to force PV disruption which is a potential blocking trigger. There’s a couple huge wildcards in play this coming winter. But so far if I look at all the factors, they weigh slightly in the direction of slightly above normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation. I’ll elaborate more soon.

        1. I’ll try to pass along a few more hints as I figure them out. My forecast for the winter will be due around November 20.

  18. I am mildly encouraged hearing Judah, Eric, and others talking about those abnormally warm waters in the North Pacific which are atypical of a La Nina pattern. This MAY promote more east based ridging in the northern Pacific which in turn sends the troughing and colder air further east across N America.

  19. As I thought would happen, we’ve quite the cloud deck over us now from a warm front moving into the region. Not enough moisture for any precipitation, but we may stay overcast most of the night and even the very first part of tomorrow morning until the front clears the area, marking the start of a long-lasting mild spell while the western US, initially mild as well, goes back to the cold pattern they’ve had. If there’s a negative to our nice stretch, a long rain-free period will allow the drought to gain back some of its foothold once again.

    According to Judah Cohen, the snow cover in North America has been observed at its highest on record for this time of year.

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