Wednesday November 4 2020 Forecast (7:17AM)

25 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Discussion…

A warm front is passing by now, and this opens the door for days of mild to warm & dry November weather as high pressure dominates. The remains of a trough coming through the region will probably bring us some cloudiness for the first part of Friday, but after the early clouds in eastern areas with the warm front today, and that minor interruption, we’ll be seeing lots of sunshine during the shortening daylights. Most of the time we’ll be in a fair warm west to southwest air flow, but a bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada should be strong enough to weaken the wind field as there is a boundary between it and high pressure to the south, and this should open the door for a slightly cooler sea breeze to develop Sunday. A sea breeze is less common in autumn than spring, but if we get warm enough land at this time of year we will get one to develop under these conditions. So that will basically be the most exciting weather to track over the next 5 days.

Details…

TODAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sunshine. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-71 but turning cooler in coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind calm to variable under 10 MPH, then developing sea breezes coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

The mild/tranquil pattern continues November 9-10 as high pressure rules. Finally a front from the west brings the chance of rain showers November 11 and may settle just south of the region with additional low pressure bringing unsettled weather for the remainder of this forecast period along with somewhat cooler air. Only low to moderate confidence for this scenario.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

This 5-day period may feature a couple bouts of unsettled weather as we’re in a southwesterly air flow and near the boundary of very mild air near the East Coast and colder air pushing into the Midwest. Much fine-tuning needed.

25 thoughts on “Wednesday November 4 2020 Forecast (7:17AM)”

    1. This is about as nice as we’ll ever see for as long as we can possibly see it in the month of November. Meanwhile, the West is going back to winter in a few days! Funny thing is I am not sure we’re going to be setting any warm records. So this is not really a “blow torch” pattern coming up, just a very mild one. That has to do with the magnitude of the ridge that will be dominant. It’s nothing spectacular, it’s just a stable pattern for a while, hence the persistence. A lot of people fall for the dramatic scenarios about weather that you see on Twitter. Most of the time those are fluffed with a lot of fiction. I posted a big email sent by a forecaster friend of mine the other day with a lot of great info and I’m not sure anybody actually look the time to look at it. Us mets have a lot to offer, but these days facts are cast aside for drama. 😉 Oh well!

  3. Thanks TK!

    I was going to use the term “blowtorch”.

    Does that term necessary have to mean “record” warmth as you mentioned above? What about “well above” normal temps (no records) which is what we will certainly have in the coming days?

  4. Thanks TK!

    I expect there will be (many?) warm weather records set in the eastern US in the next 7-10 days, even if most of them aren’t individual daily record highs or set right within SNE. And, conversely, plenty of cold weather records in the West. Just that kind of high amplitude pattern where such a thing can happen. I generally shy away from using the term “blowtorch”, and if I do it’s more tongue in cheek than anything since there’s obviously no meteorological definition of blowtorch. But it’s an impressively warm stretch coming up for all of us at WHW at least, which has been well telegraphed by models for weeks.

  5. Yesterday, Logan officially received a “trace” of snow yesterday (tied a record set in 1962. Did I miss something here? I thought that the morning temps were way too warm.

    1. I had snow showers in the fcst with rain showers to the south. They occurred and Boston got one.

      1. Thanks TK. Yes, obviously they got one. Just somewhat surprised given the relatively mild temps in the upper 30s.

        Also can you answer my previous question above? Thanks in advance. 🙂

        1. It snows with temperatures above freezing quite often because of colder air loft.

          I’m not sure which question you were referring to but if it was the one about the records I don’t think Boston will set any but some will probably fall in the Eastern US as well as the Western US. And if your question was about the record that was tied yesterday I’m not really sure actually.

    1. Hey TK God bless . You are a great son. She and you are very lucky family . All the best . God bless your mother

      1. Thank you very much. 🙂
        For her age, she’s been through a lot this year, having started and completed a course of radiation at the worst possible time. But we just got some great news so good fortune and the good vibes worked in her favor. All we wanted today. 🙂

  9. TK – I was referring to my “blowtorch” question, my first one of the day. Sorry about that. Can you answer it at your convenience? Again, sorry. 🙂

    As for your mom, I hope she continues to be ok! 🙂

    1. Thank you!

      To answer that question, since “blow torch” is really not an official weather term, and more just a nickname used by some mets and non-mets alike, it doesn’t have any specific criteria attached to it. While one person may use it while thinking we’ll be in for a warm spell that sets a lot of records, another may be just using it to refer to a pattern of persistent mild to warm weather that is not necessarily record-setting. I guess it’s just a matter of preference, and that variability in the use of the term is why folks such as myself & WxW are not too keen on the term. It sounds cool, and dramatic, and it’s fun to say it, but it doesn’t really serve much informational purpose. 🙂

  10. I don’t know much and I might be the most unskilled meteorologist who peruses this board. However, I find this next 7 days to be dry, seasonably warm, but not record setting so. More notable me is more dry weather. There are parts of SNE, like my backyard, that did not get much snow melt and let’s face it even in the most robust snow areas, 0.5″ liquid with evaporation is not much water into the ground.

    Anyway, I railed on GFS in the spring, destroyed the ECMWF this summer, and now I am at the GFS being silly and the ECMWF just being an inexperienced high schooler. Just enough knowledge to be dangerous.

    1. Well, we know your railing on the models was completely justified. There is nothing at all negative with forecasters pointing out the struggle that the models have undergone since the spring. That’s IMPORTANT. It’s part of our science.

      I agree with you that the dryness allowing the drought to regain its foothold is a much more important factor than the magnitude of the warmth. It’s just a classic, semi-stable “warm East, cold West” pattern setting up. This is not atypical for early La Nina while the tropics are still active early in the season. In fact, this is pretty much what one would expect to be one of the main regimes we see at this point in the autumn, and here it comes again. 🙂

  11. Glad I stuck with the Sunday cool-down. 🙂 Still looks like that will happen.

    From Pete on NBC 10…
    Longest stretches with max temps of 70 or higher in Boston in November…
    1990 & 1927: 6 days
    1982, 1975, & 1931: 5 days
    1953: 4 days
    2020: ? I don’t think they will have more than 3 consecutive, but we will see. I’ll go with Saturday for one, and then Monday-Wednesday for 3.

    How many times has Boston hit or gone over 80 in November? Just once. An 83 high temp in 1950. So that hasn’t happened in 70 years and it won’t be happening this year either.

    1. TK, you posted this above: ” I posted a big email sent by a forecaster friend of mine the other day with a lot of great info and I’m not sure anybody actually look the time to look at it. ” My response? I read it twice!! And thank you.

      Sometimes due to time constraints at work I cannot respond, or if I do later on it might be at a wacky time. So I never know whether to respond then or not. But please know that I appreciate when you share those insights from your meteorologist friends. They’re interesting and I learn a lot from them, especially the last few with their look-back at the historical data.

      1. Thank you. 🙂
        Between school & my first weather job I came to know some wonderful forecasters and researchers and some of them go through a great deal of work to compile info and give their professional opinions, which I share, with their permission, to help educate the readers. Dimensions of weather are often left out, and I like to try to complete the picture. I’ll be sharing much more of this in the time ahead of us…

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