Thursday November 5 2020 Forecast (7:15AM)

32 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Discussion…

High pressure will be in control of the weather for many days to come. A weak plume of tropical moisture will bring some lower clouds at times to the South Coast region today through early Friday, and mid and high level cloudiness from a weakening trough will pass by tonight and early Friday. Other than a generally warm west to southwest air flow many of these days, we’ll have a lighter pressure gradient between 2 high pressure areas Sunday which will allow for a cooler ocean breeze to develop especially in eastern areas, making that a cooler day.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny except partly sunny near the South Coast. Highs 59-66. Wind SW up to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sunshine. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-71 but turning cooler in coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind calm to variable under 10 MPH, then developing sea breezes coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

The November warm spell continues into Veterans Day (November 11) with dry weather the day before and a chance of rain showers on the holiday as a cold front moves through the region. This will put an end to the unseasonable warmth and bring temperatures back toward seasonable levels for the balance of the period. We will have to watch for low pressure south of the region around November 12-14 with an unsettled weather threat.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

This 5-day period may feature a couple bouts of unsettled weather as we’re in a southwesterly air flow and near the boundary of very mild air near the East Coast and colder air pushing into the Midwest. Much fine-tuning needed. Higher wet weather threats focused around November 15 & 17.

32 thoughts on “Thursday November 5 2020 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  4. Thanks, TK…
    52 degrees when I went for my morning coffee at 6 am!

    Teaching lessons from the dining room today. Eight weeks into hybrid learning and so far so good. A few area high schools have had to close for two weeks because of Covid-19 outbreaks. We have been lucky.

    TK, I have been playing catch up reading yesterday’s blog this morning. I am glad your Mom appears to be okay. Know of my prayers and concern for her.

    1. My daughter’s school system had 8 covid cases, 2 elementary, 2 middle, and 4 high school. They went remote for a few days and are back operational.
      So far so good for my daughter.

      Frankly, I thinks it is irresponsible and disgusting that municipalities are
      forcing schools to be open. They should be all remote and they should
      have taken the Summer to plan accordingly. But that is my opinion.

      Sorry, if this should have been on the Covid Page.

      1. And the Governor pretty much said there safe and wants them open . Thanks Tk and I hope mom is ok I must of missed that yesterday.

    1. Reading it, but taking it with many grains of salt, the GFS has the remnants of Eta here on 15 November.

  10. A good look at the first “monster” sunspot of Solar Cycle 25 transiting the surface of the Sun this morning. The new solar cycle remains in its early stages. It will be another year or two before we’re more regularly seeing sunspots of this size.

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_2048_HMIIF.jpg

    I read a good thread on Twitter this morning, from someone much smarter than me, which noted to keep a close eye on this sunspot the next week or so as it turns to face Earth directly. Should it produce a significant solar flare in the next several days (possible but far from certain, it’s been rather quiet so far), a resulting chain reaction likely cements a dominant +AO pattern (strong polar vortex) for the coming winter. That’s already the most likely scenario to begin with.

    https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1324321706706718720

    There was another La Nina winter in the past decade which featured significant solar activity in early November…… IMO, the parallels between this winter and 2011-2012 are undeniable. It’s far and away the best analog for this winter. But, that doesn’t mean this winter has to play out exactly like that one.

    1. If you’re interested, here’s a live graph of the solar “X-rays”. All of the upward spikes (at least, ones that deviate above the noise) are solar flares. So far they have all been in the minor “C-Class” range, with the largest occurring just after 0z today. More significant eruptions, i.e. the kind that could cause the sort of chain reaction described above, would likely have to be well into the “M-class” or especially “X-class” range.

      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

    2. Thank you very much for the info and after a meeting I have this afternoon I will be taking a look at all of this.

      I have always said that the relationship between the solar cycles and our weather is more understated than it should be, given that the sun is the sole reason we have weather to begin with.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Too warm. To sweat in November while being outdoors just isn’t good. Was really dragging on my run today. Monday and Tuesday were wonderful. I could breathe. It was blustery. No sweating.

    It looks like the rest of the month will be well above normal. Disappointed for sure.

    I’m not religious at all, but am praying that we don’t have a repeat of last winter or 2011-2012.

    1. As WxW mentioned above, it appears to be setting up that way. I’m afraid the recent October snow has said it all. 🙁

      1. The October snow is not really the reason. It’s only a product of a pattern we were in at the time. As I have shown previously, the October snow correlation is 50/50. It’s not necessarily a “kiss of death”. It’s time for us to accept that. 🙂

    3. It’s far too soon to call “the rest of the month” well above normal. We’ll be well above normal as a whole for the next several days. After that, not necessarily. The indices will favor additional mild spells, but we are not going to be immune to cold shots either.

      1. Good thing it’s November!
        This pattern is being driven by the indices stated above (see Eric’s Tweet that Mark posted).

  14. As I stated and will reiterate here, I don’t think Boston will be setting all kinds of records with this mild pattern. In fact the only day I think they have a shot at a record is Nov 11 that has a relatively low record high of 69. Most other records, to me, look out of reach. This will be far from an unprecedented mild spell.

    1. Still, even a few degrees from a record is impressive this time of year and the average person won’t really “feel” the difference. Records are really “stats” more than anything.

      1. People will definitely notice and enjoy the mild and dry stretch, which may not be great for the drought, but in these days of shortening daylight will at least be enjoyable while we have them. 🙂 Even I, who has no issue whatsoever with cold, cloudy weather and am completely unfazed by the “dark days” will still very much enjoy this. 🙂

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