Friday November 6 2020 Forecast (7:21AM)

17 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Discussion…

While I don’t want to sound too repetitive, people like to hear about good weather, especially in what is statistically the cloudiest month of the year and typically much cooler than we’ll see over this 5-day period. As high pressure continues to dominate, we’ll have plenty of fair and mild to warm weather. I still feel Sunday will be the coolest day overall as we open the door for an ocean breeze. Despite this very mild spell, however, not many record temperatures are threatened, as many of those are several degrees higher than the potential high temperatures we will be seeing. Nevertheless, a great stretch of November weather – enjoy if you can!

Details…

TODAY: Clouds dominant this morning, sunshine taking over for afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 64-71 but turning cooler in coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind calm to variable under 10 MPH, then developing sea breezes coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

The long stretch of dry/mild weather comes to an end for this period with the passage of a cold front on Veterans Day November 11, bringing cloudiness and a chance of rain showers. That day itself will still be quite mild and may be the only day that Boston has a shot at setting a record high (which stand at 69). That front settles just to the south of the region and areas of low pressure may be close enough to bring some additional episodes of unsettled weather during the remainder of the period with temperatures close to seasonable levels for this time of year.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

This is a lower-than-average confidence period for forecasting with questionable model performance, and a few unknowns regarding tropical moisture connections, but for now the thought progress is a transition to a more zonal pattern starting with a brief cool down, then a quick warm-up, some rain showers but no big storm, then a cooler/drier finish to the period. There will be a lot of fine-tuning in forecasts beyond a few days in advance. So always remember to take more extended outlooks just as a guide to what may take place, knowing there can be significant changes (hopefully not daily!).

17 thoughts on “Friday November 6 2020 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  1. Thanks TK!

    According to Eric this morning on WBZ radio (an earlier recording I assume) the very mild temps will continue through Thanksgiving and that he believes that it could be a record setting November overall. No real cold air expected.

    1. While I agree that the overall pattern for the month is mild and certainly the next several days are quite warm, with respect to average, I do not agree. We will be seeing a couple of sharp cold shots out of Canada.

      1. Nope. We’ve already seen that while analogs & comparisons are OK for guides, there are too may variables in the atmosphere to rest on those alone.

        1. Of course you know I would never stick a fork in winter this early but I’m sure there are many others who will begin saying this before long, especially if this pattern tries to persist into December.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Logan sitting at 69 right now, likely to hit 70 for the second day in a row. If they survive the sea breeze on Sunday, there’s a real chance for 7 consecutive days of 70+. Temperatures will continue to overperform every day of this stretch, as they did yesterday and have today, due to decreasing foliage and increasingly dry ground. Probably a stretch, but we’ll see if we can put a couple 80’s on the board (not at Logan) Mon-Wed. More likely a lot of mid and locally upper 70s.

    2. I’d be a little bit more excited about 80 if this were a month ago. We don’t have a whole lot of daylight to work with any longer. But I do agree with temps that will come in above model forecasts in most places because models have some built-in climatology which tends to make them under-forecast max temps in this pattern. And add in the factors you mentioned as well.

      1. Yep, agree on the lack of daylight being a big negative this time of year, and also on any guidance that’s weighted more heavily towards climatology likely to struggle.

  9. The most recent 840 hr GEFS supports the idea of the Euro. SE ridge the main player. Cold intrusions which can be sharp but generally brief. However a couple of these may occur in close proximity to each other after the mid point of this month, so that would not allow the “blowtorch” effect uninterrupted. In fact, the back half of the month, or at least the last third, may end up averaging closer to average if I anticipate the errors of the ensemble correctly. The other thing that stands out is the overall dryness of the pattern.

Comments are closed.