DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Discussion…

The contrast from one week ago to now is a great example of the variability of weather we can see – from cleaning up from a 3 to 6 inch snowfall and barely getting above 40 last Saturday for Halloween to many areas heading for 70 or higher under full (though short-lived) November sunshine today. Over the last several days the weather pattern has made a significant shift from that trough of low pressure bringing the winter preview to the East to a ridge of high pressure pushing the jet stream well into Canada and bringing some weather that reminds you a little of those late summer days. The warmer than average and dry weather will continue for several more days as the ridge holds in place, and then we will see a change take place at the middle of next week as we have a cold front move in from the west while a plume of moisture from the tropics starts to stream northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico (where Tropical Storm Eta will be located). It remains to be seen how much of that tropical moisture gets involved with the cold front moving into the area, but it should be enough to bring at least a solid episode of rain shower activity. Boston’s record high temperatures for the next 5 days (November 7-11) are 77, 74, 74, 78, and 69. At this point, I think the most vulnerable record is the one for November 11, but I could not 100% rule out one or more of the others being challenged, especially today’s and Monday’s.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog forming over lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

The cold front that comes through at midweek will be hanging just south of the region with additional waves of low pressure bringing at least lots of cloudiness and the opportunity for some rainfall later next week at times, but with drier interludes as well including into the start of the following week. Temperatures average somewhat above normal but not as warm as the current stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Add struggling guidance to the normally lower confidence of a medium range forecast, a little A.M.E. technique, and my current call for this period is for one more surge of mild air and some wet weather to start out, then a trend to more seasonable chill and drier weather.