Monday November 9 2020 Forecast (7:18AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Discussion…

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to provide us with fair and warm November weather for a couple more days. With longer night time hours now, there is a lengthy period of radiational cooling allowing for larger temperature diurnals (difference between high temps and low temps at one location) and in areas where the temperature meets the dew point, we’ve seen some fog and low clouds form as well. That will be the case again tonight and probably Tuesday night as well before more substantial cloudiness moves in and more wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will bring a change in our weather, first int he form of a band of rain showers later Wednesday into Thursday, and a shift to cooler air later this week. Once again a look at Boston’s record high temps show that today’s (74) has a slight chance of being equalled but I don’t think surpassed, Tuesday’s (78) is out of reach, and Wednesday’s (69) has a shot at being broken. Some of the moisture associated with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico may be involved with the cold front as it comes by late Wednesday into Thursday, but the bulk of that moisture will pass south of the region. One additional wave of low pressure on the front to the south of the region may hold cloudiness and possibly some South Coast wet weather in for a portion of Friday, but when we get to the end of the week, a push of high pressure from eastern Canada and the Great Lakes will bring drier weather back in.

Details…

TODAY: Patchy fog & low clouds early, then sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except patchy low clouds & for forming overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early patchy fog & low clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Areas of fog & low clouds forming. Lows 50-57. Wind SW under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a chance of rain South Coast. Breaking clouds & increasing sun afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

High pressure centered northwest of the region will bring dry and seasonably cool weather for November 14 before moving off to the east quickly and allowing a wave of low pressure to bring cloudiness and wet weather November 15. Upper level low pressure may keep it on the unsettled side at times early next week with a few rain showers at times.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The large scale pattern trend is for zonal (west to east) flow, ridge southeastern US but occasional troughs trying to push in from Canada. General pattern here is on the dry side with variable temperatures, but timing of shots of cool air and mildest days is not really possible this far in advance.

42 thoughts on “Monday November 9 2020 Forecast (7:18AM)”

    1. That Drought Map looks considerably better now. Hopefully even the lighter colors will be gone soon. I heard this morning that the fog will be more prevalent tomorrow morning.

  4. Thank you, TK…

    Dense fog this morning through the bogs of the ‘Boro, but it has since burnt off.
    36 when I left the house at 0630.

  5. Am I only one who sees ETA in the news and quickly thinks AVN, NGM, MRF?

    Also I saw TK mention the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. To this day I believe this is one of most under reported stories of our time. 230,000 people died in a single morning (similar to the 8 month US Covid death toll) 51,000 boats were destroyed, 16 coral reefs were turned inhabitable for decades, and the biodiversity was probably impacted for most of the 21st century. It is a barely footnote in history.

    1. No the only one. I affectionately remember that model and I even
      remember Todd Gross saying it on air one evening. 🙂 I remember the other
      2 as well.

      ETA became the NAM
      MRF became the GFS
      and The Nested Grid Model (NGM) went poof, I believe

      Is this correct? I don’t know if the GFS and NAM are brandy new and the ETA and MRF were retired, or if there was a substantial upgrade to each and thus the new names.

      Many thanks

      1. ETA became the NAM
        AVN became the GFS short range and MRF became GFS medium and extended range.
        My dear friend the NGM which was a 48 model and was never technically replaced but its short-range LAMP data became obsolete because of the short-range products such as RAP, NMM, WRF etc., that became available either independently or as part of the NAM suite and its 24-48 hour range useful functions could be done by the GFS and NAM.

  7. Very warm day in my classroom. It was 76 at the noon obs. in East Taunton. With the very low sun angle, the sun is shining into the room. My room faces the south.

  8. Thanks TK!

    The diurnals during this stretch have been crazy. I’ve been working a lengthy stretch of evening shifts, and every time the Sun goes down we watch all the guidance go from being too cold by 5-10 degrees during the day to too warm by 5-10 degrees in the mid evening. 10-15 degrees drops in an hour have been common. Tough to keep up with for hourly forecasts.

    Models seem to be keying in on another short duration cold shot somewhere around 11/16-11/19, followed by potentially another long duration warmup, maybe for the rest of the month. Would be tough for it to be as impressive as this one though.

  9. Groton, Smithfield, Taunton and New Bedford all Number One on the 1 pm Hit Parade with toasty 77s!!!!

    2. I find it incredible that he taped his last show on Oct 29….only 10 days before he died. He must have really been struggling to push through those last several shows. What a tremendous amount of courage.

      1. The last 2 La Nina winters at Boston have produced above normal snowfall, in one case nearly double the normal. I wouldn’t be so brave this time. 😉 But this sounds like fun!

  15. I don’t mean this in a bashing way but AccuWeather just reported Boston adding another 70° day to their stretch, except Logan’s high so far is only 62 (oops)…. Even lower than I had forecast. They’re going to need some Southwest wind in a hurry!

    I think today’s record is safe by quite a bit because I don’t think they’re really going to turn the wind and even if they do it’s too late… Sun’s going down!

    I do think they have a legitimate shot at Wednesday’s record though.

    JMA, I too remember the NAM as the ETA, which by the way is being mispronounced on a local station as Etta. (And I keep adding James to that hahaha!!)

    And yes that Indian ocean monsoon was one of the most destructive events we have had in modern history and it is barely a footnote at least in terms of our view of it because it didn’t impact the USA that much.

  16. A little out on a limb with this one…
    I believe the weather pattern we get during the second half of November is going to be a good guide for the winter pattern. I know previously I said numerous times mid October to mid November, and I have seen some clues in here too so far, but this is an educated “readjustment” if you will, a large part of it based on a kind-of-hunch. 😉 As NWS said, regarding snowfall, “It’s beyond the science”, and it really is. Forecasting snowfall amounts is far less doable than forecasting long term temperature trends. All it takes is one renegade blockbuster in an otherwise quiet winter to take your “below normal” snowfall forecast, which was generally right, and make it look terrible. Sometimes I wonder why we even try. But we try. 😉

  17. Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    1h

    Some strong indicators have emerged about this upcoming #winter and they are surprisingly consistent. Also for those expecting a front loaded winter (early #cold & #snow) my increasing response in my best Brooklynese is Fuhgeddaboudit! All in today’s blog: https://bit.ly/3n8lvgX

    1. Excerpt from the blog:

      The predicted pattern of ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies in the North Atlantic and East Asia extending into the North Pacific coupled with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies centered near the Urals is hostile to the vertical transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere. This will allow the current strong stratospheric PV to persist and increases the likelihood that it couples to the surface with a positive AO. This would likely result in an extended period of mild weather across the NH including the Eastern US, Northern Europe and East Asia. Relatively cold weather might be expected in western North America and Western Asia.

      There are no givens in weather forecasting, but the possibility of strong PV/positive AO seem increasingly likely and it would likely last through much of December and possibly even into January. Of course, last year it lasted all winter but that was highly unusual and should not be expected to repeat this winter as well, but certainly not impossible.

      1. I like J.C.’s blog this season. Sometimes he can be tough to follow, especially if one isn’t versed in some of the terminology.

        Generally agree with him as we look at the various large scale things right now.

  18. Patriots should have been able to blow the jets away, but no, they are struggling. This game kind of cements the patriots are done for the season. I think the secondary is tired of playing their hearts out just for the offense to cause them the game.

  19. My admin account will be down until later this morning…
    Please use yesterday’s post here for any comments and I’ll let you know when I’ve updated. 🙂

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