Tuesday November 10 2020 Forecast (12:15PM)

15 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Discussion…

Our charmed weather life has but hours left before a shift toward reality. But even when that happens were going to reap some benefit from a couple rain chances to further chip away at the drought. Apologies for the late update, but now that things are up and running, just a quick summary, or reiteration, of the weather players the next 5 days… Today it’s high pressure surface and aloft, helping you recall the summer days of weeks ago, with the exception of the 4:30 p.m. sunset (heehee). Wednesday we get an approaching cold front, ahead of which we’ll see an increase in clouds, humidity, and eventually rain chances. This is also the day I think Boston breaks its record high temperature which stands at 69. Today’s 78 is out of reach. Once the front gets right into the area and slowly passes through, a wave of low pressure will pass by on it and bring most of its rainfall to the area Wednesday night and early Thursday. After that, high pressure from Canada pushes in Friday and Saturday with dry and more seasonably cool air, though watch for one final wave of low pressure that may bring some rain toward the South Coast on Friday.

Details…

TODAY: Early patchy fog & low clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 70-77 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of fog & low clouds forming. Lows 50-57. Wind SW under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a chance of rain South Coast. Breaking clouds & increasing sun afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A wave of low pressure will bring cloudiness and wet weather November 15. Upper level low pressure may keep it on the unsettled side at times early next week with a few rain showers at times before a turn to dry and seasonable weather

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

The large scale pattern trend is for zonal (west to east) flow, ridge southeastern US but occasional troughs trying to push in from Canada. General pattern here is on the dry side with variable temperatures.

15 thoughts on “Tuesday November 10 2020 Forecast (12:15PM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Per a recent tweet from the local NWS office, up to 75 degrees at Caribou, ME. That is an all time November record, and equals the average high for July 4. This stretch of warmth is remarkable. And I’m increasingly confident we’ll do it again (not quite to this extreme) the last 10 days of the month, following a quick but sharp cool shot early next week.

      1. You can’t really predict record heat or cold that far in advance.

        We can look out as far as later this month as noted above. Beyond that only trends and tendencies can be somewhat predicted but not records.

  3. Tk will we be getting your winter thoughts soon if I remember correctly I though it came out on Veterans Day . Thank you

    1. My target is about November 20.
      I can tell you right now that my ideas will reflect similarities to things already stated by WxWatcher and Judah Cohen, but I still have a few more things to ponder before I really dive in.

        1. Well, cutting out all the technobabble, the idea is mild with short-lived cold shots.

          As far as precip, too early to tell, but we may be vulnerable to borderline precip events along semi-stationary frontal boundaries instead of big old low pressure areas. But that’s really not anything I’m too confident of at this point.

  4. Wouldn’t it be something if the 4.3 Boston received on October 30th is the biggest snowfall for all of winter 2020-2021.

    2. Well I won’t go as far as to say this will mirror 2011-2012 that closely, and they will probably have something bigger than 4.3 ….. but you never know! NWS said it best, regarding precip/snow forecasts in the long range that are easy to make: “It’s beyond the science.”

  5. I’m probably going to back off the rainfall somewhat for tomorrow night. Trends are for this thing to produce further southeast, and less in most of the region. May end up with under 0.25 inch in the majority of the WHW forecast area.

  6. Amazing stretch of warmth at BDL. If the NWS predicted high of 73 tomorrow is correct (which would be another record high), that will be 7 days in a row of 70+ weather in November, shattering the previous record of 4 days in a row which occurred only twice prior.

    And the highs the last 6 days haven’t just been scraping past 70, they have been well up into the 70’s!

    Thursday: 71
    Friday: 75
    Saturday: 79*
    Sunday: 75
    Monday: 74
    Tuesday: 77*
    Wednesday: 73* (projected)

    * = denotes record high for the day

  7. John Homenuk just issued his winter forecast for the NYC area. This is a good technical writeup and he explains the impact of not only La Nina but also the positive QBO which in turn supports more +NAO. Essentially he is saying less high latitude blocking expected to combat the ridging in the East that is synonymous with La Nina. All bad news if you are looking for much in the way of cold and snow.

    https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/

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