Wednesday November 11 2020 Forecast (7:52AM)

21 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Discussion…

Taking a moment to recognize and thank all Veterans for their dedication, service, and bravery. Understanding that most cities and towns continue with restrictions for activities, but if there are any small Veterans Day ceremonies outside this morning and midday there will not be any weather issues as we continue the summerlike pattern we’ve been in for several days. Today is Boston’s day to break a record high temperature as the morning sunshine and southerly wind should help temperatures take off quickly and make it to 70, besting the record of 69. This has been my expectation for several days for Boston in this stretch, and now it’s time to see if it plays out. Other locations have set some record highs in the days before this. What has been far more impressive than the magnitude of the warm spell, which hasn’t been exceedingly warm since we were not shattering records everywhere every day, was the longevity, being one of the longer stretches, and in some locations the longest, we have seen. Regardless, it’s about to end, and will do so as a cold front ambles its way eastward into and across the region tonight and early Thursday. However, it appears that the rain shower activity with this front will be somewhat limited, with the only shot of “beneficial” rainfall across the South Coast, while other areas get less significant activity. An initial moisture feed from Tropical Storm Eta heads south of the region. As the cold front settles just to the south of the region, one wave of low pressure will keep cloudiness in the region for a good portion of Thursday. A little influx of drier air will try to clear the region out at night but another disturbance coming along on Friday will thicken the clouds up again and deliver a shot of some rainfall. This will be a fairly-quick moving system and be on its way out quickly, opening the door for a chilly high pressure system to move in via the Great Lakes Saturday, a day that will be breezy and seasonably cool for us here. This high quickly moves offshore by Sunday and a warm front approaching will bring an increase in cloudiness, but right now it does not look as wet as it did previously – in fact, we may escape the entire day without any rain. This will be something to watch as we get closer to the weekend.

Details…

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. More humid. Highs 66-73. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers arriving, most numerous South Coast. Humid. Lows 53-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers around, mainly morning. Highs 60-67 morning, falling to the 50s afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Becoming cloudy. Periods of rain especially from late morning on. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing with areas of ground fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Cold front moves through early November 16 with a rain shower risk followed by breezy and cool but dry weather. Disturbance may bring additional cloudiness and a rain shower risk November 17 before high pressure builds in and then south of the region with fair weather the middle of next week. Next disturbance may bring clouds and a risk of light rainfall by the end of the period but this is very low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Still very low confidence out this far. May see another surge of mild weather, not as significant as the one we just had, with mainly dry weather. Alot of re-evaluation is needed to fine-tune the weather forecast for later this month.

21 thoughts on “Wednesday November 11 2020 Forecast (7:52AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    And thank you for honoring the veterans on this beautiful day. May it be a day of healing, and of recovering peace and hope, for the many who are in need of those blessings.

  2. Thanks, TK.
    The morning feels more like July than November!

    The Pilgrims landed in Provincetown on this day, November 11, 1620, exactly 400 years ago.

    God bless our Veterans and all who have served, today and always!

      1. According to TK’s Days 10-15 above, it may return again sometime towards Thanksgiving. We will see. I would say the winter 2020-21 will be quite a mild one overall.

          1. Don’t count winter out completely before we even get there.

            It is not going to take much to get us into a temporarily snowy pattern.

            It’s pretty likely that we’re going to be in a battle zone between the Southeast ridge and a fairly cold Canada. Put that high pressure in Canada across Quebec and Ontario and just far enough South and moisture running out of the Midwest between the two….. I could see a scenario here where we end up with above normal snowfall in December. Not officially my forecast yet but just looking ahead, I wouldn’t count that out.

            1. We had above normal snowfall last December, and look what happened…or didn’t (15.8”). 🙁

              We will see, I suppose…

              1. Doesn’t matter. That was last year. Different set-up. Different outlook.

                Every year (season) is its own thing. We can draw some helpful analogs at times, but there has never been a carbon copy of anything.

  7. Captain F, have you ever seen “The Mayflower Voyagers”, the Peanuts version of the story of the Pilgrims? It’s really well done, and historically accurate, with Peanuts humor injected in an otherwise pretty serious cartoon. It’s also the only animated Peanuts special in which the adults speak audible English (except one other short cartoon in which a teacher has to speak to Peppermint Patty in words we can understand instead of the traditional “waa-waa-waahh-waaahhhh” that the adults usually sound like). 🙂

  8. Thank you, TK.

    This has been the longest stretch of warm weather in November that I’ve ever experienced.

    My hope for natural ice skating (on ponds) in December is probably just that … hope. When I lived in Needham as a boy growing up we had a small pond that would freeze over at some point every December we lived there: Decembers of `71, `72, and `73. I loved that first skate on `virgin’ ice. We skated and played hockey from morning to dusk on weekends.

    1. Last year we had some of the earliest ice on ponds in years, before Thanksgiving. I love how we can have such variety here. 🙂

  9. Pretty short-lived but sharp cold shot next week.
    There may be a day (Wednesday) that spends most of its time in the 30s.

    1. Yes I noted that around midday today that they broke the record by 4°. today was the only day that I thought Boston had a legitimate shot to set a record. It was the only day they did.

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