Quick Storm Coming

71 Comments

12:00AM

No changes, other than a little more sun for today before clouds increase.

No need to rewrite the previous discussion, so here’s just an updated forecast!

TODAY: Sunshine becoming filtered to faded as high clouds increase. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing before midnight from southwest to northeast. Low 40-45. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain through midday, ending southwest to northeast. High 53-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW by early afternoon and N by late day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 33-38. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. High 42-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 56.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

MONDAY (NOV 28): Chance of rain. Temps above normal.

TUESDAY (NOV 29): Mostly cloudy. Temps above normal.

WEDNESDAY (NOV 30): Partly sunny. Temps above normal.

71 thoughts on “Quick Storm Coming”

  1. Thanks TK, as always for your excellent site and high quality forecasts/discussions…

    Lots on the weather plate this morning…..

    The long range 0z GFS caught my attention this morning. For the first week of December, it seems to want to temporarily change the pattern, moderating Alaska and western Canada and sending a fairly good shot of cold air southward into New England. I’m skeptical and will need to see many more runs that show this before I begin to buy in.

    Hurricane Kenneth is now the latest major hurricane in the eastern Pacific during the satellite era (per NHC). Looks great on the satellite.

    Watches and warnings for wintry precip now encompass a good part of northern New England. If it can last on the ground, ski enthusiasts up north may have a great ski weekend, snow to ski on with mild temps.

    1. Tom- the high school is going in the same complex. I saw a picture of it on line, must say it was a nice looking 3 story building. When the old school is down they will put sports fields there. I read the patriot ledger on line and thats how I found this out, it was yesrerday. Some posts that people wrote about the new school were nasty.

      1. Thanks for the update John. I had to ask one of my colleague’s yesterday about where the new school was going.

  3. Have a great day everyone!

    Will be back this evening with a storm update including a full discussion.

    1. I am somewhat shocked that you would want to bring down your snow amount. As much as I do not want snow, I know that wintry conditions havto be knocking on the door soon. Tom made mention to the first week of decemer may get cold, could this be the change we have been waiting for.

      1. I was half kidding. I still think we’re going to get a fair amount, it may just come later than I thought.

        1. That was a good one you had us going. But please tell us your thinking on when. Is this cold shot cming in dec the turnover.

  4. Those WSW for Maine are not only for the mountains. but even the valley areas ie.. Augusta etc.. 8-13 inches and some higher amounts are possible!!!

  5. Good morning everyone and as always thank you TK!!!

    Will snow extend to the Kennebunkport area?

    Also are the winds inland as far as Framingham expected to be bad? As rainshine said we have been seeing uncharacteristic power outages and surges since Irene in this area so if I’m cooking Thanksgiving dinner on the grill, I want to be prepared 🙂

    1. Hi, Vicki – thanks for your reply last night. I don’t mind the rain and wind (in fact, I love that type of weather every so often). But with all the food I am hoping we don’t lose any electricity – and I hope that you and everyone else has electricity so we can all enjoy Thanksgiving. I have been watching the weather (WBZ and The Weather Channel) and it looks like the winds shouldn’t get much higher than 25-35 mph. ‘Though with many trees still not in good shape and the potential for heavy rain, I still am worried. In any case, I am going out soon and going to buy a turkey and other goodies for Thurs.

      1. Hi Rainshine – I hope the same for everyone as well. Mac went to Sudbury Farms about 7:00 Sunday night and said it was packed – good luck shopping today!

        1. Hi, Vicki – we just got back from doing some errands and then finally we went to Sudbury Farms, too. And it was crowded. We bought a fresh turkey and other stuff. Looking forward to Thanksgiving! I also heard it could get rough up north weather-wise tomorrow.

  6. I know you can take this with a grain of salt but the accuweather extended forecast shows Hanover getting cold on December 3rd with a high temp of 40. The next few days has high temps in the 30’s. Cold weather pattern shift? Who knows, but Tk’s comment on last nights blog has given me little hope for the winter season.

    1. I think people are jumping to the conclusion that we will have little snow this winter, I can’t buy into that. For TK to say that he must of seen something. I am hoping he could explain this to us later.

      1. The only concern I have is the strength of La Nina, otherwise I’m not really changing anything yet, other than the onset of a colder regime..slightly. It may come sooner than people think.

        1. I agree. I think it will be here soon. When it does come it is here for sometime. Patience everybody winter is coming. Remember I predict snow by xmas. Someone right that down.

  7. Well, this next system is out of the question. On top of that, the mild regime seems
    to be like the Everready bunny, it just keeps on going and going and going!

    Now I’m not sure my regime change date of 1/2 is any good. Lol

  8. My quick opinion on the real start to winter – I’m not changing my guess which is Dec. 11, I think. But I do believe at some point winter will eventually come in and after a few days, weeks, whatever – we will be remembering these mild days fondly! 🙂

  10. AccuWeather Long Range Forecast for Boston:

    Thu
    12/1/2011 48° 28°
    Fri
    12/2/2011 51° 40°
    Sat
    12/3/2011 41° 26°
    Sun
    12/4/2011 38° 25°
    Mon
    12/5/2011 34° 21°
    Tue
    12/6/2011 37° 21°

    So they see a change, even if temporary, around 12/3

    18Z GFS shows some temporary cooling then, but not to this extent.
    GFS indicates more cooling by 12/8, but who knows if this is temporary or not.
    Some indications, perhaps not, but we won’t know for awhile yet.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111122%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_372_1000_500_thick.gif&fcast=372&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&cycle=11%2F22%2F2011+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=48&nextImage=yes

  14. I’ve been talking to some friends in NH along the MA border and then north into the Hanover area and they tell me are expecting a fair amount of snow and power outages.

  15. The 12z GFS shows a significant cold shot around the 7th. Until then, rain followed by a streak of above normal temps.

  16. Hadi and Coastal…I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. That WSI map looks like only marginal cold over us with the most cold over the northern Great Plains. I am only judging by the shade of blues, of course. That warmth is just to our south…literally, and I can’t believe that we won’t get many bouts of that from time to time, if not quite often during this upcoming winter.

    I went with above normal snowfall also (53″)…D’OH!! 😉

  17. TK, this may be a “Quick” storm coming, but it looks fairly substantial. I have seen numbers of up to 3 inches for tomorrow.

  23. 12Z JMA also takes system South, just about over the Islands. STILL too warm,
    but system farther South than previous runs.

    1. Speaking of hurricane models….just viewed the visible satellite of Category 4 Hurricane Kenneth !!! Has the stadium effect look to it and because the sun is so far south, it has having a tough time shining over the tall cumulus clouds in the eye, casting a shadow into the eye, even as solar noon approaches that longitude.

  25. Wish I was up in Maine tomorrow:)

    UPDATE…REVIEWED LATEST DATA AVAILABLE…MAINLY 06Z SUITE AND A
    PEEK AT 12Z NAM. 03Z SREF GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN COME IN SNOWIER FOR
    THE CWFA…NOW INDICATING A LARGE AREA OF 12+ INCHES OF SN
    CENTERED NEAR KIZG. THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT RUN SHOWING MORE SNOW
    IN THE 06Z-18Z WED TIME FRAME. AND ASIDE FROM THE 21/09Z RUN THAT
    LOST THE STORM S BRIEFLY…IT HAS BEEN INCREASING FOR THE BETTER
    PART OF OF THE LAST TWO DAYS. SIGNALS ARE ALSO INCREASING FOR 2″+
    PER HR RATES AND DEEP DGZ…WHICH WOULD GO HAND IN HAND. 06Z AND
    NOW THE 12Z NAM BOTH INDICATE STRONG FGEN ALONG THE
    FOOTHILLS…WITH WEAKLY STABLE LAYER ABOVE…SUGGESTING BANDING
    POTENTIAL IS INCREASING. THE NAM IS ALSO THE COLDEST MODEL
    AVAILABLE…WITH THE GFS BEING THE WARMEST AND THE ECMWF SOMEWHERE
    BETWEEN. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH…THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST WET BULB
    COOLING POTENTIAL…ESPECIALLY ACROSS SCNTRL NH. 06Z GEFS
    STANDARDIZED ANOMALY OUTPUT ALSO GAVE SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE GOING
    FCST. +3 SD PWAT ANOMALY WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWD TDY…LAYING JUST
    S OF NH/ME ON WED. THIS SLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED TDY BY
    CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WITH THIS HIGH
    PWAT AIR MASS IN PLACE…STRONG SLY LLJ AT H85…+3 TO +4 SD…
    WILL INTERSECT MID LVL FRONT AND -3 TO -4 SD ANOMALY ELY COLD
    CONVEYOR. THIS SUPPORTS THE STRONG FGEN INDICATED BY THE NAM…AND
    COINCIDES WELL WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SHOWN IN THE GRIDS. MAIN
    FCST CONCERN TDY WILL BE SRN EXTENT OF HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENT
    SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO SCNTRL
    NH…BUT SOUNDING REMAINS QUITE COLD BLO. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE
    POTENTIAL FOR IP AND LESS FOR SN. WILL WAIT FOR REMAINING 12Z
    GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST.

    1. Hadi some of that I understand – but I don’t know what some abbreviations mean such as KIZG – where in maine is the jackpot predicted. Thank you!

      1. It’s fryberg Maine. I would jackpot would always be elevated areas of Maine, but city wise probably Augusta/ skowhegan Maine will end up near 15 inches or more.

  26. I was just outside and was surprised that it almost has that snow feel as opposed to rain. It’s been overcast here nearly all afternoon. Temp is 45 so it’s not near cold enough for snow – just feels as if it is. Wishful thinking??

  27. It’s one of those rare cases where it’s too cold to snow in Caribou ME, but too warm to snow to in most of Mass.

      1. I’m Not so sure we won’t see a bit of snow and/or sleet at the
        outset of this system. 1000-850 MB temps below critical level as are the 850MB temperatures. What makes me believe that
        it “may” sleet for awhile is the 1000-500MB thickness which is
        ABOVE critical. I think there might be enough cold air around
        the 3,000-5,000 foot level to produce some sleet before it
        moves on over to rain fairly quickly.

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F22%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_850_thick&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=012&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  29. Today’s CPC 8-14 shows the the above temps area shrinking considerably, while Alaska is going to have normal temps.

  31. Caribou, ME currently has a dew point of 6 degrees, that will give someone at least a foot and a half of snow up north.

  33. What does everyone think the chances of an on time departure out of Logan tomorrow at 5:30am are?

    Ohhhhh the holidays.

    1. I would say 50-50. You have two things not in your favor. Heavy rain at that time and bigest travel day of the year. But either way it is out of your hands. Have a safe flight.

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