Thursday November 12 2020 Forecast (7:36AM)

24 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Discussion…

The long stretch of November warmth comes to an end today. If you look outside from a window this morning under a cloudy November sky, it may conjure up the feeling of late autumn chill when combined with the trees that are now nearly bare, save for the dark golds & browns of oaks and other rustics that are reluctant to let go of their foliage as if begging for summer to come back and make them green again. Alas, when you step outside through your door, you’ll feel 60+ degree warmth, and even air that feels somewhat humid. A few raindrops may be falling where you are, but this is part of a signal that things are about to change. Wait until this afternoon to step outside, and you will have lost your opportunity to feel the 60s, as it will already have fallen into the 50s in most areas and be on its way down from there, into the 40s tonight, maybe even a few upper 30s in outlying colder locations, as Canadian air seeps into the region. Friday, reality sets in fully as the temperature recovery only feebly attempts 50, and falls shy in many areas. The clouds will continue to be dominant, and a wave of low pressure will produce a few periods of rain during the day. Friday night, dry but even cooler air moves in, and we see the sky clear out. This sets up a weekend that will showcase 2 different weather moods, from the cool gusty breezy and bright sun of Saturday ahead of high pressure, to a more tranquil, slightly milder, but less sunny Sunday as high pressure slips offshore, low pressure heads through the Great Lakes. At this time, it looks like the warm front from this system will pass by during the day Sunday, but with limited moisture to work with, so rain chances are minimal. Sunday night and very early Monday, its cold front will traverse the region from west to east, bringing a band of rain showers, but I have my doubts just how substantial these showers will be. Any brief warm-up we get on Sunday will be replaced by a new incoming cool air mass Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly this morning and favoring areas south of I-90, especially the South Coast. Temperatures 60-67 through mid morning, falling into the 50s midday and afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH through mid morning, becoming NW 5-15 MPH during the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mainly late morning on. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59, probably occurring morning-midday, before falling. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Upper level low pressure moves through the region November 17 and 18 with lots of clouds and a risk of rain showers November 17 then more of a sun/cloud mix with a few rain and/or snow showers November 18 as temperatures fall to slightly below normal. High pressure moves south of the region with fair weather and milder air November 19-20, but a cold front around the end of the period brings a few rain showers and a transition back to cooler again.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Heading toward Thanksgiving (November 26) the trend is to see the region in a battle zone between a warm US Southeast and cold Canada. This creates the opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature variation, neither of which can be pinpointed in any detail this far in advance.

24 thoughts on “Thursday November 12 2020 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  1. Thanks Tk . I thought I would be ok wearing a long sleeve shirt knowing 50’s by afternoon but It’s humid & quite warm I may need to change at 9:30 coffee break

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Although I knew there wouldn’t be too much rain this far North (Boston), I must admit I am a bit surprised at the paltry total. Only 0.03 inch in the bucket here in JP. 🙂

    Don’t expect a whole lot more over the next few days either. any more would be a bonus.

    So are we doing our seasonal snowfall contest this year? if so, which cities? And
    what is the deadline for posting our entries? Please advise. Many thanks

    Given that, I am leaning low, but wishing high. I really wish there were a more clear cut way to know at leas the approximate amount or range of amounts. Perhaps this
    year will surprise us. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Maybe I’ll post a wishful thinking contrarian amount(s).

    3. oh, sorry, I thought it was the Esplanade, didn’t read the description ‘from East Boston’. But it’s definitely a nice photo.

  7. Logan: 37.1 in
    Worcester: 52.9 in
    Providence: 26.3 in
    Hartford: 42.6 in
    Concord, NH: 71.9 in

    Friendly reminder as folks guess for Logan, their 2020-2021 snow amount is already at 4.3 inches

    1. Tom / Dave / etc …
      I say we go for the snow contest. We’ll use the same cities there and make November 30 the deadline for getting them all in. I won’t be able to keep track of the running total. I’m going to be swamped with work-related and home-related projects for months to come.

    2. With the exception of Worcester and Concord NH, I believe I will take the “normal” annual totals and cut them in half, AT THE VERY LEAST.

      And as for those above cities, I’ll chop off about 7-10 inches or so, unless TK really see some decent opportunities down the road. There is just too much not in our favor for even normal snow.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Pretty decent cold shot on the way for the start of next week. Monday-Wednesday all looking quite chilly once the front goes through, with maybe a couple of snow shower chances. Generally dry though, which should continue to be the theme for our cold spells most of the winter. The cold gets “dragged down” by Lakes Cutters like the one on Sunday, and because of that there’s rarely any significant disturbance to take advantage of it while it lasts.

    The CMC model, after generally performing pretty well or at least in line with most other models, appears lost right now in trying to set up a longer duration cold pattern. The GFS/EC agree that warmth returns beyond 11/20, and that appears well supported by teleconnections. The MJO is in a weak phase 8/1 state, but I’m treating it as essentially neutral in the face of the raging +AO.

    Even Judah is sounding quite pessimistic on Twitter these days. You know that’s a bad sign 😉

    1. I’m with you on the medium range. No sustained cold pattern. We’ll have sharp shots, such as next week’s, but they will be the passing visitors in the overall milder regime.

      I noticed the CMC was doing “ok” for a while, which amused me. Somebody must have reminded it that it’s not the GFS and/or ECMWF. 😉

      I’m glad you mentioned the weak 8/1 MJO as acting essentially neutral because of +AO. I was explaining the pattern to somebody on a FB page I admin earlier and I meant to include that, and I left it out. I’ll go back and add that to the commentary. See? You helped out a whole different audience without evening knowing! 😉

  9. The NWS point & zone forecasts for Tuesday that were on this afternoon’s update should look different on this evening’s update. This is the same disturbance for Tue Nov 17 that I’ve been eyeing for several days now. Finally showing up on guidance (actually started to show yesterday).

    1. I think the contest page is easier because nobody will have to scroll through daily comments to find guesses. 🙂

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Predictions for winter 2020/2021, which include the October storm – I’m not bullish on snow or cold:

    Logan: 17.2 in (Boston Common 19.3 in; JP Dave/Hadi 22.1 in)
    Worcester: 31.2 in
    Providence: 14.7 in
    Hartford: 25.6 in
    Concord, NH: 48.9 in

    For fun, some around the globe predictions:

    London, UK: 1.8 in
    Berlin, Germany: 11.9 in
    Moscow, Russia: 51.7 in
    Pyongyang, North Korea: 37.2 in

    Surprise snowfall this year: Rome, Italy: 3.7 in

    Snow capital, among cities with more than 25,000 residents: Labrador City: 154.6 in

    Among cities with more than 100,000: Quebec City: 118.8 in; Sapporo (Hokkaido) Japan: 121.2 in

    1. To this date, one of my “best” forecasts was a 4-6 inch snowstorm in Tokyo I called about 4 days in advance, circa mid 1990s. 😉

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