DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Discussion…
We’re returned to reality, or more typical November weather. What we really need is rain still. While we dented our drought back in October, we’ve trended drier again recently and that is allowing the drought to hold on. We’ll do a little positive work today with some wet weather, but not enough. We still need a series of good precipitation events to really take bites out of it. We won’t really see that happen during the next 5 days, although we will get some unsettled weather, including today as a wave of low pressure combines with a northeast wind to produce drizzle and eventually some periodic rain. But this will be rather short-lived as a push of dry air from Canada arrives tonight. High pressure approaches via the Great Lakes Saturday with a gusty breeze and sun with passing clouds. The high moves offshore quickly by Sunday when low pressure approaches from the west, destined to track north of the region, sending its warm front then cold front through here in fairly rapid succession during Sunday and Sunday night. Only the cold front looks like it will have enough moisture to produce any wet weather, and that should also be rather short-lived. Monday, a delivery of cool air arrives on a gusty westerly wind but it will be a dry day. Tuesday, we’ll be in a chilly air mass as another disturbance comes along, and this one will produce showers of rain and/or snow (leaning toward rain showers for Metro Boston at this point). This will be a minor and fast-moving system regardless of precipitation type.
Details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle and light rain. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57 in the morning then falling to the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
A nice shot of cold air for November 18 with sun/clouds and a few snow showers possible as high pressure approaches from the west. The high slips to the south with fair weather and milder air November 19-20 but a disturbance may bring some unsettled weather November 20 before fair and cooler weather follows that. A little uncertain on that middle-of-period disturbance possibility.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
Thanksgiving Week Outlook: Trend continues to be for our area to be in a battle zone between a warm US Southeast and cold Canada. This creates the opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature variation, which is still about as far as I can go with this as it’s still far too soon for detail.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thank you Tk
Thanks TK !
Thanks TK
November weather has made a return.
To say the least Jimmy. Very gloomy…as it should be actually.
This is when I want to start to see the snow with the leaves almost all off the trees.
Not until leaves are actually raked up and taken away.
Thanks TK.
If I understood TK´s comments the last day or 2 on snowfall possibilities, he was talking about the idea that a SE Ridge isn´t always a negative thing for New England snowfall. He explained a scenario or 2 in which it can work out.
I refer to this because when I look at today´s 12z GFS run out around hr 252, this projection would be an early season illustration.
At 500 mb, there is a broad SE ridge, with waves of low pressure riding up the east coast to bring a batch of precip into central and southern New England.
To the north, in SE Canada, at the surface is a moderate strength cold high, at least trying to pump low level cold air down into New England.
The airmass is too mild aloft and maybe at the sfc for snow, as projected, but its the scenario that can give us snow while a SE ridge is occurring.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020111312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_44.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020111312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_45.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020111312/gfs_asnow_neus_49.png
That’s exactly right. And Dave’s post illustrates what can happen in that set-up (not necessarily what will, but you all already know that anyway, given it’s just a model projection).
The point is, a ridge parked over the SE is not an automatic winter weather death sentence for New England. We’ve had plenty of snow/ice events with a ridge in the Southeast. It’s just a little less common (depending on the overall set-up).
Rain is picking up in Boston
Getting dark with streetlights coming on.
November Rain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwL0hWRQA34
A little model watching tip…
Keeping in mind that model performance is still shaky and will be for some time yet, today’s 12z operational runs of the GFS & ECMWF depict a couple possible scenarios that result from the battle of air masses I referred to in may DAYS 11-15 outlook today. Honestly, I have no idea which, if either, scenario, would be more likely, or if the timing on it is even close to correct. In a few days this time period may look quite different on the guidance, but today’s 12z is a good opportunity to visualize a couple possibilities that could occur, should that pattern I spoke of indeed be one that materializes. This is really all we can take away from the guidance this far in advance – as it really should be.
New weather post!